(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Apparently, it's never too early to release some garbage 2024 horse-race polling [1]
['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']
Date: 2023-01-25
The main problem, pointed out by pollster John Della Volpe and data analyst Tom Bonier, was the fact that the survey put Biden at just 34% with voters under 35.
It also showed Trump beating Biden among the cohort by nearly 6 points. For reference, in 2020 Biden won Gen Z and Millennial voters by roughly 20 points, according to Pew Research Center. Last November, voters under 30 also favored Democratic House candidates by 12 points (53% – 41%), according to AP VoteCast.
At a base level, it simply defies reason that Trump could possibly be faring better with 18- to 34-year-olds than Biden.
Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, called the discrepancy "problematic."
Bonier more pointedly called BS, saying, "That is not even close to within the margin of error for the subgroup. It's just a bad poll."
Bad enough that any pollster operating with a basic level of integrity probably should have just canned the entire survey rather than making it public. It's one thing to get an outlier result; it's entirely another to know the data informing that result can't possibly be right.
"Despite this," Della Volpe noted, "pollster receives an A- from 538."
For what it's worth, Civiqs tracking of Trump's favorability rating among 18- to 34-year-olds shows him 40 points underwater, 26% - 66%.
x Civiqs Results
But Biden's favorability among the cohort is just 13 points underwater, 40% – 53%.
x Civiqs Results
All of this is simply a reminder as we head into the presidential cycle that last year many pollsters released garbage polls despite their obvious flaws and that aggregators like FiveThirtyEight.com and RealClearPolitics also treated many garbage pollsters (and therefore their garbage polls) as legitimate.
This coming cycle, news consumers must remember that they have agency to only read the pollsters and analysts they trust along with being discerning about who and what they promote. It's also a good moment to reassess which outlets and analysts either proved to be trustworthy or didn’t last cycle and have accordingly made adjustments—or not.
RELATED STORIES:
'Pollsters are holding their breath' as Beltway journalists declare victory for Republicans
Beltway media freaks out over one poll after telling everyone not to freak out over one poll
Republicans flood the zone with pro-GOP polls, bending models in their direction
Wall Street Journal goes cuckoo for cross tabs on white suburban women
Beltway analysts pushing a red-wave narrative in a highly erratic cycle is a recipe for violence
Forget 'likely voters'—it's absurd guesswork in a bizarro environment with no historic parallels
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/25/2149268/-Apparently-it-s-never-too-early-to-release-some-garbage-2024-horse-race-polling
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
