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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: What they really think of those documents is classified [1]

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Date: 2023-01-25

x A note to all of you journalists who have or who plan to write pieces about how DeSantis is the smarter, more polished, more restrained alternative to Trump. He’s none of that. https://t.co/HuZrGmoEug — Chris “Subscribe to Law Dork!” Geidner (@chrisgeidner) January 23, 2023

Jennifer Rubin/The Washington Post:

A judge exposes DeSantis’s contempt for the First Amendment Andrew Warren, the state prosecutor for Hillsborough County, Fla., spoke out against Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’s forced-birth abortion plan and his persecution of LGBTQ youth. In August, DeSantis suspended him -- and falsely claimed it was because Warren had made a blanket promise not to prosecute certain cases. Warren sued. On Friday, a judge sided with him on the facts but did not give him the relief he sought. In his ruling, U.S. District Judge Robert L. Hinkle called DeSantis’s allegation against Warren “false.” “Mr. Warren’s well-established policy, followed in every case by every prosecutor in the office,” Hinkle wrote, "was to exercise prosecutorial discretion at every stage of every case. Any reasonable investigation would have confirmed this.”

x Dunking doesn't work. The YIMBYs won the dunk wars but it just made the anti-YIMBYs more psychotic. The pro-vax people won the dunk wars but it just made the antivaxxers more insane. The idea that you can dunk your political foes into oblivion has just never been right. — Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇦 (@Noahpinion) January 24, 2023

POLITICO:

Election deniers set sights on next target The new Alabama secretary of state's first move in office showed how ideas stemming from the stolen election myth are affecting government. The latest example comes from Alabama and its newly elected secretary of state, Wes Allen. His first official act upon taking office earlier this month was unusual: The Republican fulfilled a campaign promise by withdrawing Alabama from an obscure interstate compact that helps states maintain voter rolls, citing data security concerns.

The media world is changing.

x This would genuinely be a massive loss — 538 has one of the most thorough polling databases around and has a very long track record of well-calibrated elections and sports predictions. This stuff is really difficult and it'll take a long time before someone else can fill the void https://t.co/YtnG5om3h7 — Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) January 24, 2023

Aaron Blake/The Washington Post:

Classified documents show gap in how partisans criticize Trump, Biden As for how serious a problem it is and which cases are the most problematic — that assessment depends heavily on which party you come from. And the good news for Pence is that Republicans are far more selective in their objections and partisan about the matter than are Democrats.

And the bad news for Mike Pence is the he’s still pulling <10% of the Republican primary vote. More importantly, it exposes just how poorly this whole “classified” document thing has been handled by the media.

Example:

x Can’t know this is the only moral w/o knowing what’s in the documents



If one was a schedule of the day and ultimately should have been declassified and the other is nuclear secrets or Russia probe stuff, no. https://t.co/wggDPRmLnE — Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) January 24, 2023

And as it so happens:

x At this point, the only recent leading presidential candidate who *wasn't* seriously implicated in improperly having classified documents is the one who lost her presidential bid partly due to absurd media obsessing over it. — Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) January 24, 2023

Annie Lowrey/The Atlantic:

The Trillion-Dollar Coin Might Be the Least Bad Option Why the legal scholar Rohan Grey thinks the U.S. Mint can defuse the debt-ceiling standoff Rohan Grey is a law professor at Willamette University, in Oregon, and a leading promoter of an arcane idea that could save the country from all that drama: The Biden administration could exercise its unilateral legal authority over U.S. currency to mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin and use it to pay the government’s bills. The idea seems peculiar—it first surfaced in 2010 in the comments section of a niche blog devoted to unconventional monetary policy—but Grey and others believe it would be less disruptive than many alternative scenarios.

x On one hand, you'd expect a half-normal political party to introspect and figure out *how* they botched a midterm where the president's approval sat at 42% and inflation at 8%. On the other hand, several Republicans keep thinking that Adam Laxalt was an amazing candidate. — Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) January 23, 2023

Tara Palmeri/Puck:

Who’s Afraid of Rick Scott? “Rick Scott’s team is vicious,” said a former Ron DeSantis aide. “It’s very bad news for Ron if Rick gets in the race.” Politics can be a soulless and gutless bloodsport, and yet it’s rare to see the sort of bizarre choreography that is taking place among the 2024 G.O.P. presidential frontrunners, contenders, and poseurs, alike. There hasn’t quite been a rapturous movement to enlist the various Republicans—Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Glenn Youngkin or Mike Pompeo—who remain pottering around the sidelines, waiting for Trump’s campaign to implode or die listlessly. But they remain pressed to the glass in the hope that Trump, should he remain viable, and DeSantis bully club each other so ruthlessly that it opens up a lane for a third viable challenger.

John Roberts (former Fed economist)/His personal Wordpress:

What If Inflation Comes Down Quickly? If inflation comes down more quickly than the Fed currently anticipates, the Fed would likely cut interest rates sooner—sooner, for example, than in their most-recent economic projections, when the first cut was in 2024. Lower rates would mean that unemployment wouldn’t rise as much. But monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, so a key question is how effective policy could be at limiting the rise in the unemployment rate once the good news arrives. To shed some light, I use simulations of a (slightly modified version of a) Federal Reserve staff model to quantify what the Fed’s options might be if inflation were to come down quickly next year. The results suggest that a prompt reaction to good news on inflation could temper the increase in the unemployment rate and so help reduce the chances of a recession. Given the timing I assume—where convincing evidence of lower inflation isn’t available until the spring of next year—it wouldn’t be possible to avoid an increase in the unemployment rate altogether. Still, the results suggest that a prompt response to incoming news could eliminate most further deterioration and would speed the return of the unemployment rate to its longer-run value once inflation is back under control. The next couple of sections elaborate. The final section provides technical detail.

And speaking of economists:

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