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Virginia State Senate Districts (2023): SD 31, SD 30, SD 27 [1]

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Date: 2023-01-24

Today I am going to look at the final three competitive VA senate districts: SD 31, SD 30, and SD 27, all of which are based in the greater Northern Virginia area (D.C. suburbs and exurbs). SD 30 and SD 27 are Democratic-held districts, while SD 31 is a Republican-held district. (Note: This should be clear from context, but the “SD 27” referenced in the SD 31 paragraph is the district that was in place from 2013-2023).

Virginia Senate District 30

VA SD 30 is home to communities such as Manassas and Middleburg. SD 30 is a Democratic-leaning district that moved very heavily to the left at the presidential level last cycle, having gone from supporting Hillary Clinton by an 11-point margin to supporting Joe Biden four years later by a much larger margin of almost 27 points, a leftward swing of over 15 points. (By contrast, the state of VA only moved about 5 points to the left at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020). Interestingly, the district also saw an unusually large swing back to the right in 2021, with Democrat Terry McAuliffe only narrowly carrying the district by between 4 and 5 points in the Governor’s race. Note that McAuliffe underperformed Biden by about 22 points in the district, which is considerably larger than his 12-point statewide underperformance of Biden. The seat is also open this cycle, with no incumbents residing in the district. On the Dem side, current House of Delegates member Danica Roem is running, while there are currently no Republican candidates for the seat. With 2023 shaping up to be a stronger year for the Dems than 2021, Roem should be heavily favored, but the district still warrants notice given its highly elastic nature. I’m classifying SD 30 as Likely Democrat.

Virginia Senate District 31

VA SD 31 contains communities such as Leesburg, Middleburg, and The Plains. Partisan-wise, SD 31 is fairly similar to the state of VA as a whole, with Clinton carrying the district by about 6 points (while winning statewide by about 5 points) and Biden carrying it by about 13 points (while winning statewide by about 10 points). The district was extremely close in the 2021 Governor’s race with McAuliffe just narrowly losing the district by half a percentage point (slightly better than his statewide loss). Incumbent Republican State Senator Jill Vogel (who has represented SD 27 since 2007) does reside in the district, though there is some speculation that she won’t run this cycle. Vogel was easily reelected to SD 27 by a large margin of 28.5 points in 2019, though it should be noted that SD 27 was a reliably red district (that supported Donald Trump by about 19 points in 2020), so her previous margins are likely not all that meaningful here. Two Democrats are running for SD 31: former Loudon County Prosecutor and CIA officer Russet Perry and Leesburg Town Council member Zach Cummings. In addition, Vogel has two Republican primary challengers, Geary Higgins, who previously ran for SD 13 in 2019 and lost, and healthcare executive Juan Pablo Segura, who has the backing of his billionaire father. Given that much of the previous statewide election results have been competitive, the district should be competitive again this cycle. I’m classifying SD 31 as a Toss Up. While the district arguably favors the Dems overall, the Republicans still have a decent shot of holding onto it in 2023, given that the environment could end up still being somewhat favorable to the GOP and that the Republicans have a fairly entrenched incumbent, though if Vogel ends up not being the Republican nominee, I could see shifting the district to “Lean Democrat”.

Virginia Senate District 27

VA SD 27 is located on the southern outskirts of Northern VA and is home to Fredericksburg. Overall, SD 27 has been a competitive district at the presidential/statewide level and has swung towards the Democrats in recent years, having gone from supporting Trump in 2016 by about 6.5 points to supporting Biden in 2020 by just under 6 points. Not surprisingly, the Democrats were less successful here in 2021 Governor’s race, with McAuliffe losing the district by about 8.5 points, though the fact that he only did about two point worse than Clinton is a fairly decent sign for Dems, given that he underperformed her by quite a bit more statewide. There are no incumbents residing in the district, making the seat open this cycle. At least two Democrats are running: consumer protection lawyer Ben Litchfield and marine veteran Luke Radley Wright, as are two Republicans: House of Delegates member Tara Durant, who narrowly flipped HD 28 (which is a few points bluer than SD 27) in 2021, and entrepreneur and veteran Matt Strickland. In addition, there is also a third-party candidate on the ballot, Monica Gray, who currently serves on the Stafford County Board of Commissioners. I’m classifying SD 27 as a Toss Up for 2023, though it should be noted that the Dems will likely need to have a considerably stronger year than they did in 2021 in order to win the seat.

Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2023 districts), cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the remaining statewide results of the new districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/24/2148969/-Virginia-State-Senate-Districts-2023-SD-31-SD-30-SD-27

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