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Ukraine Invasion Day 335: Russia's "operational gridlock" continues [1]
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Date: 2023-01-23
The next major offensive or counter-offensive could be decisive. ”President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine talks of chasing Russia out of Ukraine altogether, including the territory seized by Russia in 2014 in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The United States and its allies may prefer a less ambitious outcome, although U.S. officials are reportedly considering it as a possibility.”
After 11 months during which Ukraine has won repeated and decisive victories against Russian forces, clawed back some of its lands and cities and withstood lethal assaults on its infrastructure, the war is at a stalemate.
Still, the fighting rages on, including a ferocious battle for the city of Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region. Cruel, seemingly random Russian missile strikes at civilian targets have become a regular horror: On Jan. 14, a Russian missile struck an apartment building in Dnipro, in central Ukraine. Among the at least 40 dead were small children, a pregnant woman and a 15-year-old dancer.
Both sides are now said to be bracing for a fierce new round of offensives in the late winter or spring. Russia has mobilized 300,000 new men to throw into the fray, and some arms factories are working around the clock. Ukraine’s Western arms suppliers, at the same time, are bolstering Kyiv’s arsenal with armor and air defense systems that until recently they were reluctant to deploy against Russia for fear of escalating this conflict into an all-in East-West war.
[...]
Ukraine and its backers hope that the Western arms will be decisive, giving Ukraine a better chance to blunt a Russian offensive and drive the Russians back. How far back is another question. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine talks of chasing Russia out of Ukraine altogether, including the territory seized by Russia in 2014 in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The United States and its allies may prefer a less ambitious outcome, although U.S. officials are reportedly considering it as a possibility. But so long as Mr. Putin shows no readiness to talk, the question is moot. The job at hand is to persuade Russia that a negotiated peace is the only option.
www.nytimes.com/...
Washington’s message, for now, is disappointingly clear. We stand by you and the defense of Ukraine. You can kill as many Russians as you need, but you cannot go beyond your borders with our weapons to do it. There is no stated purpose like “defeat Russia,” or “restore Ukrainian territorial integrity,” including the Donbass and Crimea.
Strategic ambiguity for Kyiv is tantamount to strategic certainty for Moscow. That is an unacceptable status quo. Constraining funding and limiting Ukraine to a defensive war within their borders will likely turn Putin’s “special military operation” into the very “forever war” Biden claimed he would no longer support after pulling U.S. forces out of Afghanistan.
While robust, the latest U.S. $2.5 billion aid package to Ukraine announced on January 19th is not nearly enough. It includes 59 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers. What is glaringly missing from the package is exactly what Ukraine needs most. Namely Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), M1 Abrams tanks, and fast jets such as the F-16.
These weapons, as part of a combined arms team, would provide the necessary offensive capability to maneuver and shape the battlefield and provide operational reach beyond Ukraine’s borders. They would also enable Kyiv to strike cruise missile and drone launching points, interdict Russian forces before they can arrive on the battlefield, target ammunition, fuel, and supply depots, as well as Russian command and control centers.
They would also allow Zelensky to take the fight to Russia instead of being forced to wait for Russia to bring the fight to Ukraine on Putin’s terms. Most importantly, they would afford no sanctuary to Russian forces.
Zelenskyy is not afraid of Putin’s shadows. He made clear early on when he refused Biden’s offer to evacuate him. Zelensky is the Winston S. Churchill of the 21st century. He has offered his blood, his sweat, and his toil. It is now time the West offers its own in defense of democracy.
In the words of U.S. General George S. Patton, “never let the enemy pick the battle site.” That core element of operational art seems to have been forgotten by our Secretary of Defense, retired Army General Lloyd Austin, and the President’s senior military advisor, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Mark Milley. It’s time the Biden administration lost its fear of Putin’s outsized shadows. Ukraine’s existence and the lives of its valiant people depend on it.
www.kyivpost.com/...
"The Ukrainians have given us a chance to turn this century around, a chance for freedom and security that we could not have achieved by our own efforts, no matter who we happen to be. All we have to do is help them win."
x So, what is my conclusion of all this?
It seems that Russia is desperate to modernize its tanks but it can't afford to keep up, which could be due to sanctions.
This results in "hybrids" using tech designed for other tanks, crudely upgraded and sent to the frontlines.
5/6 pic.twitter.com/hpnCVaAXKS — Kontakt6 (@Kontakt642) January 23, 2023
No NATO-allied nation-state would ever consider or execute a precision strike on Russia to kill Putin. That's unquestionable and it would constitute a declaration of war between the thirty-two-nation alliance that no one wants to see. But internal plots by Russian citizens are not only likely but already in the works. In September 2022 Ukrainian General Director of Military Intelligence claimed Putin had already survived one plot since the invasion began.
There are several categories of Russian people and entities who would like to see Vladimir Putin removed from the earthly stage. The oligarchy is losing its vast streams of wealth well worth trillions of dollars with no end of global sanctions in sight. With an inability to travel globally, limited goods that money can purchase outside of Russia, and losing market share to the Chinese the oligarchy will eventually reach a breaking point. Applying a ten-cent bullet to stop a multitrillion-dollar hemorrhage may appeal to them. Although Putin controls them with personal intimidation, it may at some point become attractive for them to buy the strength and loyalty of the army and the national police. Additionally, Putin has set up several figures as his strongest supporters and empowered them with military capacity that could be turned against him.
malcolmnance.substack.com/...
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/23/2148729/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-335-Russia-s-operational-gridlock-continues
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