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Ukraine Invasion Day 331: Davos, Ramstein... more provisioning and more warfare ahead [1]

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Date: 2023-01-19

Meanwhile, Belgium will send Ukraine 3,000 tons of road salt. The Ramstein meeting of allied military comes at the end of a tough week in which Ukraine has been shaken by the loss of its Interior Ministry leadership in a Kyiv helicopter crash.

A Russian strike on an apartment complex in the central Ukrainian city was one of the deadliest for civilians away from the front line since the war began. The attack prompted

Pentagon's spokeswoman Sabrina Singh just said if Ukraine moves on Crimea, the US would support. "That includes an operation in Crimea. That is a sovereign part of their country and they have every right to take that back." Not a new stance from DOD, but a firm restatement.

The most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus. A new MDCOA of an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely. Russian forces currently deployed in Belarus are undergoing training rotations and redeploying to fight in eastern Ukraine. [5] There are no observed indicators that Russian forces in Belarus have the command and control structures necessary for the winter or spring 2023 attack against Ukraine about which Ukrainian issued warnings in late 2022. [6] It seems more likely that Russian forces may be setting conditions for a new MDCOA of attacking Ukraine from Belarus in late 2023 given recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus plan to conduct major exercises (Zapad 2023 and Union Shield 2023), likely in September 2023. [7] ISW is thus adjusting its forecast; the current assessed MDCOA is a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarusian territory in late 2023. This is not simply a deferment of the timeframe for the previous MDCOA. It is an entirely new MDCOA given that it would occur in different circumstances. Russia will have completed the Autumn 2022 annual conscription cycle and be well into the Spring 2023 cycle, on the one hand, and may well have completed one or more additional reserve call-ups by Autumn 2023. A delayed timeline for this COA could allow Russia’s military industry to gear up sufficiently to provide a greater proportion of the necessary materiel for a renewed invasion from Belarus than Russia can provide this winter. ISW continues to assess that a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus remains a highly unlikely scenario in the forecast cone this winter and unlikely but more plausible in Autumn 2023.

Senior Kremlin officials continue holding high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership – activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus, although not necessarily and not in the coming weeks. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin discussed unspecified bilateral military cooperation, the implementation of unspecified strategic deterrence measures, and “progress in preparing” the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV) in a January 19 phone call. [1] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk and discussed an unspecified Russo-Belarusian “shared vision” for Russia’s war in Ukraine on January 19. [2] Lavrov and Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergey Aleinik discussed how Russia and Belarus can defeat an ongoing Western hybrid war against the states and signed an unspecified memorandum of cooperation on “ensuring biological security.” [3] This memorandum could be a leading indicator of the intensification of an existing Russian information operation falsely accusing Ukraine of developing chemical and biochemical weapons in alleged US-funded biolabs in Ukraine that was part of the Kremlin‘s pretext for the February 2022 invasion. [4]

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 19



7-day average of Troops, Tanks, Artillery, APVs & Vehicles rises



TODAY'S REPORTED LOSSES:

4x daily changes over 7-day average

5x 7-day average increases



+ 7-day average of land-based equipment up as well



📈 https://t.co/ntj3nTfnew pic.twitter.com/4ptkR8AZMc — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) January 19, 2023

x Denmark announces it will donate all 19 of its Caesar self-propelled Howitzer systems to Ukraine: https://t.co/gh8PObIc4n — Robbie Gramer (@RobbieGramer) January 19, 2023

x 🚨 Russian Mig-31K capable of carrying Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile with a range of 2000km at speed of Mach 12 took off in #Belarus. The entire territory of #Ukraine is under air raid alert. Ukraine does not have the capability to intercept this weapon. pic.twitter.com/pu6Tou80Na — Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) January 19, 2023

Nine European countries have pledged further military support to Ukraine, which will help forces move from “resisting to expelling Russian forces,” according to a joint statement published by the British government following a meeting in Tallinn, Estonia.

The countries are:

Denmark

Czech Republic

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Slovakia

UK

Netherlands

In addition, Sweden plans to send as many as 50 armored combat vehicles as part of its new military aid package, according to a government statement Thursday.

Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met his new German counterpart Boris Pistorius in Berlin on Thursday as Germany faces increased pressure to allow its Leopard tanks to be sent to Ukraine amid Kyiv’s calls for heavy weaponry.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that the supply of Western-made tanks continues to be "pressing and very sensitive" in his nation's war against Russia.

edition.cnn.com/...

"It just doesn’t make sense” for the US to provide M1 Abrams tanks “at this moment," Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary, said Thursday after German officials said that they will not provide tanks to Ukraine until the US decides to do so as well.

“As you know we’ve provided the Bradleys, we're seeing other nations step up and continue to provide equipment and material to Ukraine that they can,” Singh said.

“Ultimately this is Germany's decision. It's their sovereign decision on what security assistance they will provide. So we won't be able to speak to them but I think that we are certainly doing what we can to support Ukraine in what in what they need," she added.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is meeting with other allies on Friday in Germany during the eighth Ukraine Contact Group, where they will discuss what kind of equipment and weapons systems Ukraine may need in its fight against Russia.

And while the issue of tanks is sure to come up, US officials have repeatedly said Germany can make its own decisions and that the M1 Abrams’ maintenance and sustainment demands make it a difficult piece of equipment to provide to the Ukrainians.

“[W]e're continuing to work with other partners and allies around the world to see what else can be provided to Ukraine and that's, that's the whole point of tomorrow's meeting,” Singh said Thursday.

edition.cnn.com/...

x An important moment in European support for Ukraine. The Talinn pledge just released by the UK, Baltics, Poland, Netherlands, Slovakia, Czech and Denmark. Full text here. https://t.co/V7LfwhDpXp — Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) January 19, 2023

Starts with a pledge to equip Ukraine with what is needed to drive Russia out of all Ukrainian territory. No qualification, so includes Crimea. Want to hand over equipment to improve Ukrainian capabilities--including the ability to attack Russian logistics and command/control. We the Defence Ministers of Estonia, the United Kingdom, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania; and the representatives of Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Slovakia met today, 19 January, to reaffirm our continued determination and resolve to supporting Ukraine in their heroic resistance against the illegal and unprovoked Russian aggression. We condemn Russia’s attacks designed to terrorise Ukraine’s people, including intentional attacks against the civilian population and civilian infrastructure which may constitute war crimes. We reject Russia’s ongoing violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and its illegal claims to have annexed Ukrainian territory…

Then goes on to say they will give Ukraine basically everything they can (except for aircraft). Then throws down the gauntlet to other European states before the Ramstein meeting tomorrow.

Followed be a detailed list of what they will deliver. Basically the clearest statement possible that Ukrainian victory is now to be achieved, and that its better to send what they can to Ukraine that hold on to it themselves. Puts real pressure on other states at Ramstein.

• • •

x SitRep - 19/01/23 - One day until Ramstein



An overview of the daily events in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Today a lot of aid was announced by numerous countries. Also it was confirmed that the AFU liberated Novoselivs'ke, a strategic village close to Svatove.



1/X pic.twitter.com/dDMnMNw4fh — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 19, 2023

x (2 of 6)



In late December 2022, imagery showed T-14s on a training area in southern Russia: the site has been associated with pre-deployment activity for the Ukraine operation. pic.twitter.com/YzUnQ0147p — Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 19, 2023 “We have been in a stable position for a long time. Switzerland is a neutral country,” he said. Funny. I love history. Let’s look back.

x Switzerland's WWII arms sales amounted to some 900 million francs between 1940 and 1944, when the trade was halted under pressure from the Allies.



Of this, TWO THIRDS went to Germany and part of the rest to its ally, Italy.



Zero lessons learned. — Melaniya Podolyak (@MelaniePodolyak) January 18, 2023

The weapons included anti-aircraft systems, cannons, military precision instruments and ammunition and were made by the Swiss Oerlikon-Buhrle, Tavaro, Hispano-Suiza and Dixi (reported by prof. Cerutti of Geneva University)

Cerutti referenced the 1946 document discovered in the archives of the Swiss Military Department, which detailed accounting of the companies and amounts involved.

Moreover, Switzerland, more than any other European country, served as a refuge and center for Nazi financial operations during WWII.



The leading Swiss banks served as international bankers to the Germans, and as links with Germany's network of foreign holdings and interests.

Swiss francs were made available to Germany by Swiss banks' purchase of German gold.



Guess where that gold came from? Right, stolen from the Jews, later murdered in the concentration camps.

German penetration into Swiss industry for cartel, tax evasion or safe haven purposes was accomplished principally through the establishment in Switzerland of subsidiary companies of powerful German firms.

Soooo neutral.

By war's end there were about 350 direct subsidiaries of German firms established in Switzerland.



In addition, German participation in Swiss firms, particularly in chemicals, electricity, and fuel was considerable.

Thus, on August 9, 1940, Germany and Switzerland signed a trade agreement that provided that Germany supply Switzerland with raw materials, including coal and iron. In return, the Swiss agreed to allow the Germans to transit across its territories to bring in goods from Italy.

Other foreign currencies necessary for German war efforts and trade outside Germany were also made available to Germany.



By the end of 1944, it was estimated that German investments and accounts in Switzerland amounted to $600,000,000.

It was also believed that considerable amounts of German assets were represented in securities, currencies, jewels, works of art, etc., held in Swiss safety deposit boxes.



German real estate holdings in Switzerland were thought to be worth $62,500,000.

Privately owned German accounts were reported to be in excess of 500 million Swiss francs. These were easy to cloak since the Secrecy Act permitted Swiss banks to hide ownership under numbered accounts.

Nobody can change the past. Nobody.



But is it so difficult to learn from it? Is it so unbelievably difficult not to help dictators and murderers, but to help stop them, as to not repeat the history?

“This [Switzerland] is a country of the Geneva Conventions, which participates in the negotiation process,” Berset says.



Is it not obvious that no negotiations can stop this war? Is mr. Berset so arrogant he thinks HE can talk Russians out of this?

It’s obvious for everyone that the war will be over when Ukraine wins. And it will win when we get the means necessary for that.



But some people just seem to be unable to quit being complicit in genocides.



Hope everybody enjoys fucking Davos.

• • •

x CIA Director Burns is held in high regard by officials in Kyiv, in part because in January ‘22 he personally delivered intelligence that Russia would try to capture Antonov Airport outside Kyiv—the defense of which proved vital to saving Ukraine’s capital. https://t.co/6F2ncFUnEd — Doug Klain (@DougKlain) January 19, 2023

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Svatove on January 19. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a counteroffensive to capture Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove) and advanced to the railway station in the eastern part of the settlement. [43] A milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are waiting for reinforcements to continue the counteroffensive to liberate Kuzemivka (15km northwest of Svatove), which they claimed is not under Ukrainian or Russian control. [44] ISW does not make assessments about specific future Ukrainian operations, however. The milblogger also claimed that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating along the frontline from Kolomyychikha (10km west of Svatove) to Kamianka (63km northwest of Svatove) to assist in target designation for Russian artillery units. [45] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that elements of the Western Military District (WMD) are operating in the northern sector of the Svatove-Kreminna line. [46]

understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar on January 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Soledar itself, Verkhnokamianske (20km northeast of Soledar) and Sil (3km northwest of Soledar). [49] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted assaults towards Ukrainian fortified positions along the Krasnopolivka-Rozdolivka-Vesele line (within 7km north of Soledar) and in the direction of Blahodatne (2km west of Soledar). [50] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in combat near Paraskoviivka (5km southwest of Soledar). [51] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also repelled a Russian assault near Krasna Hora (5km southwest of Soledar). [52]

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) amid ongoing offensive operations around Bakhmut on January 19. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner Group fighters exclusively captured Klishchiivka and that fighting is ongoing around the settlement, although ISW cannot independently confirm that Russian forces have captured the settlement. [53] Russian sources asserted that the capture of Klishchiivka would allow Russian forces to cut off the Kostiantynivka- Bakhmut highway (T0504 highway) and threaten Ukrainian forces in Chasiv Yar (13km west of Bakhmut). [54] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself and near Klishchiivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne (17km southwest of Bakhmut), and Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut). [55] Geolocated footage published on January 18 indicates that Russian forces have likely made marginal advances in the northeastern outskirts of Bakhmut. [56] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces made marginal advances in the eastern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut. [57]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area on January 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 32km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Marinka, Pobieda, and Paraskoviivka. [58] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces attacked near Nevelske (15km southwest of Avdiivka) and broke through Ukrainian defenses near Pobieda (32km southwest of Avdiivka), reaching a local railway station, although ISW cannot independently verify that Russian forces did so. [59] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that elements of the Southern Military District (SMD) are operating on the western outskirts of Donetsk City and that elements of the Eastern Military District (EMD) are operating in western Donetsk Oblast. [60] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued routine indirect fire along the line of contact in Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts. [61]

understandingwar.org/...

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continued localized offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast on January 19. Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed that Russian forces captured four unspecified settlements near Orikhiv, a Ukrainian-controlled settlement about 56km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City. [62] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a localized offensive operation around Orikhiv and that Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups are conducting reconnaissance-in-force operations near Mali Shcherbaky (18km west of Orikhiv), Stepove (21km west of Orikhiv), Mala Tokmachka (10km southeast of Orikhiv), and Nesteryanka (12km southwest of Orikhiv). [63] The Russian milblogger added that Ukrainian formations are spreading information that they lost control of these four settlements, and Rogov may have been referring to these settlements in his original announcement. The Ukrainian General Staff responded to these Russian claims by asserting that Ukrainian artillery defeated elements of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army that attempted this attack. [64] The Ukrainian General Staff published geolocated footage that showed Ukrainian artillery striking Russian forces south of Stepove and reported that Ukrainian forces eliminated three Russian tanks and about 30 servicemembers. [65]

Russian forces continued routine fire along the contact line in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv oblasts on January 19. [66] One Ukrainian official reported that Russian forces continue to use incendiary munitions against civilian infrastructure in occupied territories. [67]

understandingwar.org/...

The State Property Fund (SPF) determined the winner of the auction for the privatization of the sea trade port Ust-Dunaisk (Odesa Region) LLC Elixir Ukraine (Vinnytsia) with an offer of UAH 201 million.

This is stated in the message of the fund, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

"UAH 201 million - for the first time in the history of Ukraine, a sea port was privatized. The final offer for the port Ust-Dunaisk exceeded the starting price 3.3 times, which was UAH 60 million. Such a result was achieved thanks to significant competition among entrepreneurs - 8 investors competed for the port. Now the winner has 20 working days to pay the price of the lot. We are waiting for receipts in the budget to support our Defense Forces," the statement reads.

The ultimate beneficiary of Elixir Ukraine LLC is Valerii Vikhrenko, the founder and owner of the Vimexim group of companies.

Vimexim group of companies is engaged in processing, exporting and providing logistics services from grain and oil crops.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the State Property Fund announced the holding of an online auction on January 17 in the Prozorro.Sale system for the privatization of the sea trade port Ust-Dunaisk with a starting price of UAH 60 million.

ukranews.com/…

x Looks like a UR-77 MICLIC used by Ukraine's 8th Mountain Assault Battalion.https://t.co/bmn3NUH2AW pic.twitter.com/lUmFMoeKHe — Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 19, 2023

After the assassination of OUN leader Konovalets in 1938, the principal OUN leadership abroad could not choose a leader from amongst themselves and therefore asked Andriy Melnyk to become leader of OUN in 1939.[2] He was chosen by the leadership in part because of the hope for more moderate and pragmatic leadership and due to the desire to repair strained ties with the Catholic Church.[1] The group that had chosen Melnyk as their leader admired aspects of Benito Mussolini's fascism but condemned Nazism.[4] In 1940 a more radical faction of the OUN, led by Stepan Bandera and based in Ukraine, broke away from the OUN led by Melnyk in exile. The two rival organizations became known as Melnykites (Melnykivtsi) and Banderites (Banderivtsi).

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/19/2148130/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-331-Davos-Ramstein-more-provisioning-and-more-warfare-ahead

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