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Ukraine Invasion Day 330: you're welcome (to give tanks) [1]
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Date: 2023-01-18
Challenger 2 main battle tank
Germany will not allow other countries to send Leopard-2 main battle tanks to Ukraine to help defend against Russia unless the US agrees to send American made tanks said Senior German Officials (WSJ). Denmark has said it’s willing to join the International Leopard Tank Coalition for Ukraine. The news was broken by Paweł Szrot, Head of the Polish President’s Chancellery. He said the coalition already exists, with Poland, Finland, Denmark and the UK being part of it. "Gemany is arguing with itself over Ukraine"
The U.K. is sending 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks, self-propelled artillery and thousands of rounds of ammunition to Ukraine with the goal of helping troops push back against Russian troops in the eastern and southern parts of the country, U.K.’s foreign minister said Tuesday. The foreign ministry is focused on helping Ukraine end Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to take Ukraine by force, James Cleverly told an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Cleverly spoke at CSIS while in Washington, D.C., to meet his American counterparts at the State Department. news.usni.org/… Leopard 2 Main Battle Tank A senior Western military official said this week that altering the balance of forces in eastern Ukraine is needed to break the stalemate in the war, and that sending in enough modern Western battle tanks and other combat vehicles could help to tip that balance. Without tanks, a powerful component of ground warfare, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to win back significant amounts of territory, the official said. At the Pentagon, Laura K. Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of defense, said last week at a briefing that “we absolutely agree that Ukraine does need tanks. www.nytimes.com/...
Key Takeaways Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech commemorating the siege of Leningrad continued to illustrate that Putin remains uncertain about his ability to significantly shape the Russian information space.
Putin’s speech is likely part of a larger informational effort to wrap the "special military operation" inside the greater Russian national mythos of the Great Patriotic War (the Second World War) to increase Russian support for a protracted war and mobilization.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov augmented these efforts to increase Russian support for a protracted war by explicitly and ludicrously claiming that Ukraine and the West are pursuing the genocide of the Russian people.
Putin continues efforts to reinvigorate Russia’s defense industrial base to support a protracted war in Ukraine.
Putin and Lavrov continue to deny Ukrainian sovereignty and outright reject direct negotiations with Ukraine.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is becoming increasingly bold in his verbal attacks against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin.
Prigozhin and other notable voices in Russia are carving out a new space to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin without fear of retribution.
Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions near Kreminna.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
The Russian MoD continues to attempt to downplay the role of the Wagner Group in claimed tactical advances in the Soledar area.
Ukrainian officials have indicated that Russian forces are concentrating in Zaporizhia Oblast, possibly for a large defensive or offensive effort.
Russian forces’ increasing use of incendiary munitions to conduct what appear to be otherwise routine strikes in southern Ukraine supports ISW’s recent assessment that Russian forces likely face a shortage of conventional artillery rounds.
Ukrainian and Russian sources continued to indicate that Russian authorities are likely preparing for a second wave of mobilization. www.understandingwar.org/...
Lavrov’s equations of the West with Nazi Germany and its support for Ukraine with an effort to exterminate the Russian people are ludicrous and almost certainly aimed at a domestic Russian audience. Ukraine has never threatened to invade or seize territory beyond the internationally recognized borders of 1991. Neither NATO as an alliance nor any individual member state has threatened to invade Russia, let alone to pursue the destruction of Russians as a people. The purpose of Lavrov’s outrageous and absurd comparison was very likely meant to complement Putin’s rhetoric and other Russian efforts to persuade the Russian people that Ukraine and its Western backers pose a real and imminent threat to Russian territory and to the Russian people in their homes. Russian governments, the Wagner Private Military Company, and the Russian military have dug trenches and established militias in areas bordering Ukraine for months, ostensibly to defend against the nonexistent threat of a Ukrainian invasion.[9] These efforts, together with Putin’s and Lavrov’s statements wrapping themselves in the banners of the Red Army waging the Great Patriotic Special Military Operation, are meant to galvanize support for protracted mobilization and suffering in pursuit of Putin’s unprovoked aggression and search for territorial conquest. Putin and Lavrov continue to deny Ukrainian sovereignty and outright reject direct negotiations with Ukraine. Putin emphasized in his speech that Russia is fighting to protect people who live in its "historical territories" in Ukraine, a continuation of Kremlin rhetoric that rejects Ukrainian sovereignty and seeks to justify Putin’s maximalist goals of territorial acquisition in Ukraine.[10] Lavrov explicitly stated that "there can be no talk of negotiations with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky" and argued that Western insistence on Ukraine’s involvement in negotiations is "nonsense" as the West is in charge of making decisions in Ukraine.[11] Lavrov stated that the Kremlin would respond seriously to any noteworthy proposals from the United States.[12] Lavrov’s and Putin’s statements are indicative of ongoing Russian information operations that aim to reject Ukraine’s sovereignty and delegitimize Kyiv’s right to negotiate, shifting the onus for negotiations onto Western officials, whom the Kremlin believes to be more willing to offer concessions that Ukraine could not accept and could seek to compel Ukrainian officials to negotiate on terms more favorable to Russia.[13] Putin continues efforts to reinvigorate Russia’s defense industrial base to support a protracted war in Ukraine. Putin visited workers at the Obukhov State Plant—part of the Almaz-Antey Russian state-owned defense industrial company—on January 18.[14] Putin stated that the Russian defense industry currently can produce more than it could previously in an unspecified past time frame and stated that Russia will achieve the defense industrial production level that Russia needs.[15] Putin acknowledged that workers at the Obukhov factory work three shifts a day and reiterated that defense industry workers were exempted from mobilization, likely because Putin needs to keep specialized workers in Russia’s defense industrial base.[16] Putin also used this visit to draw historical parallels between the Great Patriotic War and the current war in Ukraine. Putin and Obukhov workers discussed how over 6,500 workers at the Obukhov plant died during the Great Patriotic War and how Russia is "absolutely justified" in fighting against neo-Nazis in Ukraine today.[17] www.understandingwar.org/...
On Friday, Western allies will gather at a U.S. air base in Germany to offer more weapons for Ukraine. Attention is focused in particular on Germany, which has veto power over any decision to send its Leopard tanks, fielded by NATO-allied armies across Europe and widely seen as the most suitable for Ukraine. Polish President Andrzej Duda told the Davos gathering he was afraid Russia was preparing a new offensive in Ukraine within months and it was therefore crucial to provide additional support to Kyiv with modern tanks and missiles. Poland and Finland have already said they will send Leopards if Germany approves them. Berlin says a decision will be the first item on the agenda of Boris Pistorius, named Germany's new defence minister earlier this week. Russian President Vladimir Putin, visiting an air defence factory in St Petersburg, said Russia's military industrial might meant "victory is assured, I have no doubt about it". Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow saw no prospects of peace talks and there could be no negotiations with Zelenskiy. Russia has said talks are possible only if Ukraine recognises Moscow's claims to Ukrainian territory; Kyiv says it will fight until Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine. www.reuters.com/...
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