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Ukraine Invasion Day 328: is now really a "decisive phase" [1]

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Date: 2023-01-16

Russian siloviki would like to to imagine their invasion as a nation-state level version of MILF Manor to resolve using disinformation and hybrid warfare. It isn’t because it’s deadly serious and is about human rights and economic sovereignty in the last instance aside from the multipolar charges of imperialism.

Over the past 24 hours, the Russian fascist invaders launched 2 missile and 7 air strikes and launched more than 70 attacks from rocket salvo systems. The rashists targeted residential areas, killing and injuring civilians. –Armed Forces of Ukraine report at 06:00 on 17 Jan 2023

#Russia : Army Senior Sergeant in #Belgorod detonated an RGD-5 hand grenade at the Tonenkoye cultural center converted to a munitions warehouse. The blast killed 3 soldiers, injured 16 soldiers, and caused a massive fire. 8 more people are reported missing. pic.twitter.com/0jvUjSIPbV

Two friends Olha Usova and Irina Salamatenko killed in Dnipro by Russian X22 missile. Excellent doctors, volunteers, Irina has two children, Olya has a little son. There’s only one way to fight terrorists. And we all know what it is. pic.twitter.com/uKttfgk56g

Video reportedly shows the moment of the Russian Kh-22 cruise missile hits the apartment block in Dnipro during Saturday’s missile strikes. pic.twitter.com/qCe5MwAvcZ

A Russian strike on a nine-story building in Dnipro, Ukraine, brought one of the largest losses of civilian lives far from the front line since the beginning of the war. Rescue workers pulled at least one woman out safely from the debris. https://t.co/1vQdrNHHyC pic.twitter.com/CFKnApjIYT

#Ukraine ’s military is no longer #Russia ’s primary target. Illegally, #Putin is now intentionally targeting #Ukrainian citizens. Change is needed — and Col. @JESweet2022 , US Army, Rtd & I explain why at the @KyivPost . https://t.co/pOHYjx2MKX

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 15



No update from @Rebel44CZ (on behalf of Oryx) today



VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

3.16x losses to date ➡

2.71x counteroffensive ➡

1.69x 30-day average*



* Understates 🇷🇺 losses due to a correction on Dec 25



📈 https://t.co/0ni3lC1SNH pic.twitter.com/TYUa3D8lZq — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) January 15, 2023

x What does Russia have left? I was playing with some numbers last week. The real question is what does Russia really have in storage? Is the equipment even there, is it useable? #RussiaUkraineWar pic.twitter.com/if1F1DpXVX — John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) January 16, 2023

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces continued to launch localized assaults to regain lost positions around Svatove and in the Kupyansk direction on January 15 and January 16. A prominent Russian milblogger reported that the frontline did not change significantly in the Kupyansk direction. [21] A Russian proxy source claimed on January 16 that Russian Special Forces elements gained control over Novoselivske (about 14km northwest of Svatove). [22] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces lack sufficient military equipment and personnel in the Kupyansk direction, stating that one tank battalion of the 26th Tank Regiment of the 47th Guards Tank Division has only 30 personnel and 10 operating T-80BV tanks remaining on the frontline (out of a regular complement of roughly 30 tanks). [23] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that a Russian S-300 missile failed to launch and damaged a residential building in Novopskov, Starobilsk Raion in Russian rear positions in Luhansk Oblast. [24]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces made additional territorial gains north of Bakhmut on January 15-16. Wagner Group forces captured the Sil railway station northwest of Soledar on January 16. [31] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured the entirety of Sil on January 16, though ISW is unable to verify this claim at this time. [32] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces captured a Ukrainian stronghold west of Berestove (15 km northeast of Soledar) on January 15, but did not provide evidence. [33] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks against Soledar, Sil, and Krasnopolivka (just north of Sil) on January 15 and 16. [34]

Russian forces may be intensifying attacks near Klishchiivka (southwest of Bakhmut) after capturing Soledar (north of Bakhmut) in a new effort to encircle Bakhmut, after months of ineffective frontal assaults. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on January 15 that Russian forces are attacking Klishchiivka and noted that Russian advances in southern Bakhmut will enable Russian forces to threaten Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) on the T0504 highway from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut. [35] Russian sources reported that heavy fighting continued in Klishchiivka on January 16. [36] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks against Bakhmut itself, Klishchiivka, and Mayorsk on January 15 and 16. [37] Geolocated combat footage published on January 15 indicates Russian forces have made marginal advances in southeastern Bakhmut near the Bakhmut garbage dump. [38] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces made additional territorial gains in southern Bakhmut on Maly Troitsky Lane, north of Opytne. [39]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued to accumulate manpower in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on January 15 and 16. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan reported on January 15 that Russian forces increased their presence on the east bank of the Dnipro River and that Wagner Group elements arrived in Kherson Oblast. [42] ISW has not observed any other reports of Wagner Group forces in Kherson Oblast at this time. Russian forces continued routine artillery fire against areas in west (right) bank Kherson Oblast, including Kherson City and its environs. [43]

Russian occupation authorities claimed that Russian air defenses shot down 10 Ukrainian UAVs over the Black Sea near Sevastopol on January 15 and 16. [44] There is no indication that any of the UAVs hit their targets.

Russian forces continued efforts to develop new logistic routes between Russia and southern Ukraine, likely to disperse their lines of communication against Ukrainian strikes. The Russian occupation head of Kherson Oblast, Vladimir Saldo, claimed that Russian authorities finished restoring the Henichesk-Arabat Spit bridge, improving Russian transport logistics. [45] Saldo also claimed that occupation authorities are constructing a large road connecting rear areas in Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk oblasts to Crimea and Rostov-on-Don. [46]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x The supply of even more advanced weapons to Ukraine by Western countries will not change the outcome of the war, the Russian regime warns. The modern tanks that the British send to Ukraine in the fight against the Russian occupiers "will burn", the Kremlin says in a statement. — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 16, 2023

x “While the tanks and the AS90s will come from our stocks, along with their associated ammunition, a significant number of the other donations are being purchased from the open market or from supportive third-party countries.”https://t.co/N0gIj8jaKa pic.twitter.com/fB8oHko1xK — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) January 16, 2023

x This brand new Russian T-90M Proryv-3 with Nakidka thermal camouflage is burning somewhere in Luhansk region. Allegedly a Swedish delivered AT4 (unit costs 1,480 USD) has been used to knock it out. 5 million USD in Russian tax payer money smoked. #Ukraine #Luhansk pic.twitter.com/UwM3WmI3VL — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 16, 2023

x Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information as of 18:00 on 16 January 2023 regarding the Russian invasion



2/2 pic.twitter.com/qpP3wU5Ytv — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) January 16, 2023





x 🎙️Ukraine war – how can academics apply their expertise?

We work daily with the estimates of the

damages to the economy. The estimate was $136 billion of direct damages to infrastructure as of November 2022, & in September, it was $126— @Nataliia_Shapo



🎧https://t.co/63oI9WsnLY pic.twitter.com/7v41rNepJC — Bennett Institute for Public Policy (@BennettInst) January 15, 2023

x UK 🇬🇧 will be sending 30 AS-90 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers to Ukraine 🇺🇦



The AS-90 can fire up to 6 rounds per minute, it holds up to 48 rounds, has a range of 30km, and is compatible with USA’s Excalibur precision-guided munitions pic.twitter.com/KMFdsJXzpF — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) January 16, 2023

x The Challenger 2 is infinitely superior than anything the Russians have on the battlefield. The Challenger is better than the T-72, T-80, and T-90. It will take a hit from them and still not be affected.



- Michael Clarke@DefenceHQ @CinC_AFU https://t.co/DQnmX8U2a6 — UkeTube (@uketube) January 16, 2023

x Aye because we’re at war 😂 when’s the last time you saw the UK use a tanks? It’s like the nukes we have then but never gonna use them — Chris Hamilton (@hammycfc) January 17, 2023

x Bye, Russia! Animation shows where Germany has been getting its natural gas from. Source: https://t.co/c4nxJOwcxi pic.twitter.com/5GsZc9WIRl — Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) January 15, 2023

x Whether we make this designation or not - and we should - it's the truth. Russia is going to be a pariah even after Putin is gone, and rightly so. https://t.co/SlB9WxeWeN — Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) January 17, 2023





x What a hero, on the red square in Moscow. He needs to work on his voice though 😅



🎶Ще не вмерла України і слава, і воля pic.twitter.com/Y9KHumVZ6l — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 15, 2023

x One Russian soldier obligingly posted a photo of every village he drove through on his way from southern Russia to Kherson, revealing the precise route of Russian supply lines https://t.co/1tBslpvadb — The Economist (@TheEconomist) January 17, 2023

x UPCOMING ONLINE EVENT: Join us on Thursday, 1/19 at 10AM for a fascinating discussion about the impact of international sanctions on the Russian economy with @maxbergmann, @MSnegovaya, @bencahillenergy, and @Saleksashenko. Please register below!https://t.co/teXc9DesWi — CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program (@csiserep) January 13, 2023

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