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Belarus reported to be "highly likely" to join Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [1]

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Date: 2023-01-15

A Russian T-90 tank, because I have run out of Belarus photos to use.

The editor of the independent Belarussian media outlet Charter 97, Natalya Radina, is reporting that the army of Belarus will soon join the war in Ukraine on Russia’s side.

Belarusian troops are highly likely to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2023, the chief editor of the Belarusian independent news media Charter-97 Natalya Radina said in her interview with UNIAN, referring to the insider information within the Armed Forces of Belarus. There are several scenarios under which Belarusian troops may be deployed to Ukraine, Radina claimed, referring to an anonymous source in the Belarusian army. First of all, the army of Belarus may take part in the Russian invasion of Ukraine to distract Ukrainian forces from other areas, where Russia plans to launch offensive operations. Secondly, Belarusian forces may invade Ukraine from Russian territory. Finally, the Belarusian army may join the Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southeastern Ukraine, according to Radina.

This is something that has been much discussed here — and much dismissed. That’s because the swampy terrain on the border of Ukraine and Belarus is terrible for an invading force and Ukraine has had months to prepare its fortifications.

Plus, Ukraine now has a secret weapon — beavers.

x Ukrainian soldiers near the Belarusian border say that the high number of beaver dams, which locals haven’t cleared because of the war, have helped flood the Volyn swamps- making the area much easier to defendhttps://t.co/ozdmPvzuJx — Max Hunder (@Max_Hunder) January 13, 2023

But seriously, an assault by Belarus there is likely to end very badly. But just because an invasion from Belarus is an epically stupid idea doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Russia is calling the shots here and it is doubtful they value the lives of Belarussian soldiers any more than they value the lives of their own newly mobilized cannon fodder.

A few more hints at what might be coming:

Why move pontoon bridge equipment to Belarus? It’s either a prelude to an invasion or a rather elaborate feint.

x 🇷🇺🇧🇾 A train from Russia with bridge layers was noticed in Gomel. As we remember, Ukrainians have long blown up bridges on the border with Belarus. - Intel Slava Z pic.twitter.com/6iA4Wl9zcA — Zlatti71 (@djuric_zlatko) January 14, 2023 There are also joint air exercises scheduled, which Belarus says is strictly defensive. Jan 15 (Reuters) - Belarus' Security Council said on Sunday that joint air force drills with Russia, due to start next week, were purely defensive in nature and would focus on reconnaissance missions and how to thwart a potential attack, the RIA Novosti news agency reported. Minsk also said it was "ready" for any "provocative actions" by Ukraine, as a flurry of military activity in the country has triggered fresh fears in Kyiv and the West that Russia could be preparing to use its ally - which acted as a springboard for Russia's invasion last February - to mount a new ground offensive on Ukraine. And this: x ⚡️Three of the four CSTO exercises in 2023 will be held in Belarus, the Security Council reported. — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) January 15, 2023 Secondly, the willingness of Belarussian soldiers to fight against their neighbors in Ukraine is highly suspect. This is said to be one of the chief reasons why Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has so far resisted Putin’s pressure to join the war.

In fact, mutiny is a strong possibility, as Radina suggests.

“The vast majority of Belarusian soldiers are not willing to fight against Ukrainians. They are ready to surrender once they are deployed to Ukraine, I am confident of that,” Radina said.

The war, as well as Lukashenko himself, are also highly unpopular with the public in Belarus, so much so that Lukashenko has needed Russian help to stay in power.

So, since crossing the Belarus-Ukraine frontier is highly likely to be FUBAR, Belarussian participation in the war would almost have to come either through Russian territory or in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the southeast of Ukraine.

The advantage of these two options is that Russian troops would be able to keep an eye on the Belarusian units. Belarusian soldiers refusing to fight or trying to surrender could end up shot.

But there is another reason why the Belarus army might be thrown into this war.

Russia has no intention of ever letting Belarus leave its orbit. Russia has tens of thousands of troops there now, not only to direct an attack toward Ukraine, but to maintain Russian control there.

And so, if the Belarussian army ends up getting chewed up and spit out and destroyed as an effective force, the less trouble it would be to an eventual Russian annexation of Belarus.

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The sooner Lukashenko goes, the better.

x #Belarus This brutal regime has no empathy left. Lukashenka said to his loyalists that propagandist Ryhor Azaronak should decide on the fate of political prisoners. He is the worst example of hatred and proposed to hang dissidents. It is so dangerous and inhumane. Madness. pic.twitter.com/q8yytZIgLb — Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) January 14, 2023

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There will be a price to be paid for the horrible missile attack on the high-rise residential building in Dnipro.

x And this scum is Oleg Timoshin. He is the commander of the 52nd "Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment"



His regiment hit the house in #Dnipro today. He gave the order to hit the shopping center in #Kremenchuk in June last year.



You’ll be hunted down scum! 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬 pic.twitter.com/r3tpuZiPvC — ꑭ Natalïa ꑭ (@NatalieSmal) January 14, 2023

The missile used in the attack was a KH-22 anti-ship missile designed to kill aircraft carriers.

x Details coming out that Russia used Kh-22 anti-ship missiles for the terror strike in Dnipro. They are fired from Tu-22M3 and carry a payload of 950kg. They are highly inaccurate. #Dnipro #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/xYDgdJx8MG — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 14, 2023

Russia continues committing war crimes today.

x The Russians aren’t done.



They hit a residential building in Kherson today too.



Via @NOELreports pic.twitter.com/dY4J0LWL57 — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) January 15, 2023

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/15/2147306/-Belarus-reported-to-be-highly-likely-to-join-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine-in-February

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