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Talk about Inflation - KOS it's looking a lot better [1]

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Date: 2023-01-12

The beast of Inflation is yielding to persuasion.

These are the CPI index numbers for the full years of 2021 and 2022 by month, which you can get from the BLS website data tables

2021 262.20 263.35 265.03 266.73 268.60 270.96 272.18 273.09 274.21 276.59 278.52 280.13 2022 281.93 284.18 287.71 289.10 292.30 296.31 296.28 296.17 296.81 298.01 297.71 296.80

What that means is this:

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3-month 1.93% 2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.9% 3.0% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% -0.004% 6-month 3.6% 4.1% 4.9% 4.5% 4.9% 5.8% 5.1% 4.2% 3.2% 3.1% 1.9% 0.2% 9-month 5.7% 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 7.0% 8.1% 7.1% 6.3% 6.0% 5.7% 4.8% 3.2% 12-month 7.5% 7.9% 8.6% 8.4% 8.8% 9.4% 8.9% 8.5% 8.2% 7.7% 6.9% 6.0%

In other words the CPI index has essentially been flat for 7 months in a row i.e. 296.28 in June 2022 to 296.80 in December 2022. So the annual number at 6.0% has underlying 3-month, 6-month and 9-month trends which are on target for the FED. Another quarter of data like this and the big GOP talking point of “inflation, inflation, inflation” which was supposed to give them a red wave (and didn’t) will have to change to a new boogy-man. So expect to see more on crime, CRT, ridiculous abortion votes. In the meantime let’s hope the FED does not overshoot on interest rates and tip the economy into a recession. With numbers like these the likelihood of recession in the US is receding. Coming on the heels of a good unemployment and jobs report, this is good news for the blue team.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/12/2146914/-Talk-about-Inflation-KOS-it-s-looking-a-lot-better

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