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Pandemic Observations -- January 4, Top 40+ Nations (China Deaths Approach 100,000 per Week?): [1]

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Date: 2023-01-05

The Road Ahead?

This week’s global stats are still suffering from incomplete data due to the New Year's holiday (no new data at all from the UK, Turkey, South Africa, Canada, and a number of other countries), but the real story continues to be the unfolding catastrophe in China with the collapse of their Zero-Covid policy last month.

If Macao and Hong Kong are at all representative of what is currently going on in the rest of China, a weekly fatality rate of ~60 new deaths per million population suggests that China lost ~80,000 people in the past week alone, — nearly as many new deaths from Covid each day as were dying in the rest of the world combined for the entire week, and a rather far cry from the “officially” admitted total of just 13.

Indeed, the UK-based health data firm Airfinity has raised their estimate of daily Covid deaths in China from 5,000 two weeks ago and 9,000 last week to nearly 15,000 this week, and calculate cumulative deaths since December 1 at over 175,000. Even worse, they are still predicting a peak daily death rate of ~25,000 per day by late January and a cumulative death toll of 1.7 million by the end of April.

There is an interesting overview of the whole situation in China on Newsweek under the headline “Xi Jinping’s Fatal Error”:

The failure to adequately prepare for China's reopening is evident in harrowing scenes emerging in so-called first- and second-tier cities, where vulnerable patients are crowding overworked hospitals and at-capacity funeral homes are cremating corpses around the clock. Beijing's decision to loosen controls in the middle of winter, shortly before the peak travel season of the Lunar New Year, also belies its insistence that "China's COVID situation is predictable and under control." ... "Policy-wise, Beijing is struggling to present a coherent narrative at this point, about why China persisted with zero COVID for so long, and why it is suddenly ending it," said Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University in Canberra. "After a decade in power, it is not always easy to distinguish whether the main responsibility lies with local leaders' failure to follow the center's orders, or the center's inability to get local leaders to listen." After successfully mobilizing the population under an anti-COVID banner, China faces a health and political fallout with unpredictable consequences. The shattering of any illusion of "authoritarian competence" could be kryptonite for the long-ruling Communist Party, whose regime security trumps all else. … "Xi Jinping has entered into what may prove to be the highest-risk phase of his tenure as supreme leader," said Mark Watson, director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's office in Washington, D.C. "Since the time of the emperors, all of China's rulers and the people they govern have feared one thing above all else: chaos." China's president might choose to sacrifice select senior officials to give the appearance of accountability, Watson told Newsweek. "But the cult of personality that Xi has so assiduously created means that he is seen literally as the personification of the state and the party—and so any failings necessarily fall at his feet."

Top 40+ Nations: Dec 29 - Jan 4 New Deaths 7-Day D/1M 7-Day Deaths Weekly Change 14.Day Change Change fr Max World Hong Kong Macao Sweden Croatia Denmark Japan Estonia Germany France Italy New.Zealand Latvia Fr Guiana Portugal Chile Slovenia USA Suriname Taiwan Martinique So Korea Austria Australia Lithuania Guadeloupe Serbia Peru Israel Trinidad Spain Brazil Guyana Mayotte Fiji Czechia Mauritius Slovakia Paraguay Bulgaria Costa Rica Russia Colombia Switzerland Poland Romania Bolivia Philippines Thailand Ukraine Mexico Argentina Indonesia Iran 1.6 61.3 60.0 31.2 21.7 17.8 15.3 13.6 13.4 12.0 11.7 11.0 10.6 10.0 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.1 8.0 7.9 6.0 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.2 12,367 460 39 315 89 103 1,934 18 1,123 785 706 55 20 3 91 167 18 2,846 5 193 3 404 54 142 14 2 43 158 39 6 196 838 3 1 3 35 4 17 22 19 13 350 103 17 74 34 20 136 75 47 135 47 83 19 -5% 40% 255% 58% 20% 54% -12% 6% 58% -7% -12% -29% 233% 300% 168% 2% -14% 26% 500% 3% 300% 0% -23% -31% -22% 200% 65% -23% -7% 0% -19% -30% 300% 100% 300% -36% 400% -19% 100% 46% 0% -8% 29% 143% 124% 3% 25% -19% -16% 31% -43% 7% -23% 280% -4% 84% 900% 31% 46% 38% 29% -8% 5% 15% 7% 36% -19% 200% -23% 7% 22% -15% 500% -7% -40% 15% 36% -23% 88% 0% 17% -3% 7% 33% -21% 15% 200% 100% 300% -22% 100% -16% 267% 7% 100% -4% 115% 14% 9% 29% 64% -13% -25% -42% 60% 98% -46% 4% -89% -77% 0% -53% -83% -68% -15% -78% -82% -89% -88% -76% -93% -84% -95% -98% -95% -88% -93% -84% -98% -83% -94% -77% -95% -98% -91% -98% -91% -97% -97% -96% -94% -98% -96% -98% -97% -98% -98% -98% -95% -96% -98% -98% -98% -99% -98% -93% -96% -99% -99% -99% -99% -100% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 44 45 46 48 49 50 53 54 55 56 65 66

D/1M = New Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population over prior 7 days

C/1M = New Covid-19 cases per 1 million population over prior 7 days

Weekly Change = Net change from previous week's stats

14-Day Change = Net Change from previous 14-Day period

Change fr Max = Net change from week of peak deaths or new cases

Bold = Nations experiencing significant upward movement in cases and/or deaths

Note: Only nations with >250,000 population included

All data derived from worldometer

Top 40+ Nations: Dec 29 - Jan 4 New Cases 7-Day C/1M 7-Day Cases Weekly Change 14.Day Change Change fr Max World Hong Kong So Korea Taiwan Japan New.Zealand Slovenia Brunei Guadeloupe Austria Uruguay Cyprus Australia Italy Germany France Macao USA Argentina Chile Bolivia Lithuania Singapore New.Caledonia Costa Rica Paraguay Sweden Israel Brazil Switzerland Serbia Barbados Latvia Denmark Fr Guiana Belize Croatia Malta Iceland Panama Guatemala Peru Portugal Czechia Spain Ecuador Mexico Russia Netherlands Romania Colombia Malaysia Poland Ukraine China Indonesia 415 21,081 8,566 7,638 6,395 4,546 3,364 3,126 2,820 2,736 2,352 2,154 2,049 2,018 1,936 1,904 1,743 1,679 1,609 1,449 1,061 1,041 1,025 1,025 1,012 936 841 790 719 718 689 678 640 616 597 572 562 496 492 478 416 381 381 312 304 281 229 225 198 188 133 103 90 73 28 13 3,229,185 158,132 439,453 181,928 807,708 22,740 6,998 1,369 1,128 24,627 8,173 2,602 52,302 122,099 162,208 124,352 1,133 555,630 72,558 27,676 12,363 2,832 6,000 296 5,155 6,681 8,494 6,844 152,961 6,213 6,017 195 1,206 3,565 179 228 2,305 219 168 2,066 6,912 12,567 3,883 3,335 14,221 4,963 29,417 32,813 3,379 3,605 6,776 3,321 3,387 3,203 40,004 3,602 -13% 12% -6% 28% -32% -29% -27% 1% 768% -15% -9% -12% -47% -11% -8% -44% 227% 55% 17% -2% -18% 2% -8% 4% -1% 51% -12% -23% -36% -3% -4% 3% -3% -25% 3% -16% 6% 74% 8% -27% -21% -52% 186% 10% -24% -3% -8% -27% -50% 5% -15% -26% 3% 50% 52% -32% -14% 41% 0% 52% -2% -34% -33% 2% 173% -20% 126% -24% -31% -34% -24% -55% 147% -2% 50% 20% 15% 10% -23% -69% 36% 401% -27% -14% -23% -58% 27% -46% -51% -11% -69% -11% -4% 33% -31% -58% -41% -59% -18% -42% -9% -18% 29% -22% -14% 12% 19% -48% -8% -53% 82% -62% -86% -56% -84% -68% -53% -84% -93% -95% -95% -92% -90% -92% -92% -90% -90% -95% 0% -90% -91% -89% -84% -96% -95% -97% -93% -83% -97% -99% -88% -97% -95% -96% -98% -99% -98% -96% -96% -97% -99% -97% -81% -96% -99% -99% -98% -92% -90% -98% -99% -98% -97% -98% -99% -99% 0% -99% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 45 46 47 48 49 52 53 55 57 63 68 70 73 82 90

Following are the Power Rankings for the most important nations currently driving the global pandemic ranked in terms of total new infections and new deaths during the past week:

Top 40 nations by New Deaths: Dec 29 - Jan 4 7-Day Deaths 14-Day Increase %Global World USA Japan Germany Brazil France Italy Hong Kong So Korea Russia Sweden Spain Taiwan Chile Peru Australia Philippines Mexico Denmark Colombia Portugal Croatia Indonesia Thailand Poland New.Zealand Austria Ukraine Argentina Serbia Macao Israel Czechia Romania Paraguay Latvia Bolivia Bulgaria Iran Estonia Slovenia 12,367 2,846 1,934 1,123 838 785 706 460 404 350 315 196 193 167 158 142 136 135 103 103 91 89 83 75 74 55 54 47 47 43 39 39 35 34 22 20 20 19 19 18 18 0.4% 0.5% 7.7% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.8% 7.0% 2.6% 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 455% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 100% 23.0% 15.6% 9.1% 6.8% 6.3% 5.7% 3.7% 3.3% 2.8% 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

14-Day Increase = Net increase of current 14-day numbers over prior cumulative totals

Global% = Share of Global Totals

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/5/2145643/-Pandemic-Observations-January-4-Top-40-Nations-China-Deaths-Approach-100-000-per-Week

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