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One scenario: Trump has orchestrated the House Majority Speaker debacle, and McCarthy was his foil. [1]

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Date: 2023-01-04

Who will Trump pick to replace Kevin McCarthy? Probably Elise Stefanik or Steve Scalise

After I read all the stories about the House Majority Speaker debacle, what immediately came to mind is that it makes no sense. Losing vote after vote—now six votes—diminishes Kevin McCarthy and the Republican Party. An inability to choose another candidate, when Elise Stefanik or Steve Scalise seem like the most likely replacement nominees, makes no sense. So, who would orchestrate this and why?

The only person who has something to gain is Donald Trump. Given his alliances with all of the so-called “leaders” of the House Republicans: McCarthy, Scalise, Stefanik, and Palmer, in addition to Jordan, in my estimation, Trump clearly is in charge, and could have anointed another candidate last night, but he chose not to. Why?

Like always, it would be because Trump’s goals are his only priority. The purpose of the debacle, in which the House Republicans won’t vote for Kevin McCarthy, but Trump hasn’t endorsed another viable candidate, is because he needed to make it clear to the entire House Caucus that without him on their side, they will be unable to appoint a Majority Speaker and assume control of the House. While Trump’s followers have remained loyal, other House Republicans had started shying away from him, he had to demonstrate his power, and McCathy was the perfect foil. Part of this scenario is based upon Trump’s need for dominance; the other half is based on his need for revenge.

We all know Trump was furious after the midterms, when he was blamed for Republican losses, and some Republicans and pundits said he was becoming irrelevant. They also said that voters had indicated by their votes that they were tired of the inability of the Congress to work together, and that actions and rhetoric by election deniers and extremist Republican politicians were turning off Republican voters.

And, Trump needed to reverse this perception, as well as prove he still controls Congressional Republicans. We know he was enraged about the appointment of the Special Counsel, and the piling up of lawsuits against him. He was/is furious at the members of the January 6 committee, who not only said he was responsible for the Insurrection, but issued four criminal referrals on him to the DOJ, and published a damning report.

Trump obviously wants every member of the house to renounce the January 6 Final Report, and support him unconditionally. He and his lapdog Jordan have strategized how Jordan will investigate 42 members of the Biden Administration. Jordan already has requested long lists of documents, and now presumably evidence, from the DOJ and FBI, and publicly stated his intent to investigate both agencies as well as their leaders. And, Trump undoubtedly wants the entire House on board for this as well as for the investigation of Hunter Biden.

There is no better way for Trump to demonstrate his power than to prevent House Republicans from having the votes they need to choose a Majority Speaker.

And, I started suspecting this was the case last night when I watched The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell. O’Donnell said he had talked to Garrett Haake, who had a short conversation with Trump, and Trump told him everyone was calling him and asking him for advice about what to do after McCarthy couldn’t win the vote, and they had adjourned. When asked if he still was supporting McCarthy, Trump didn't answer. And, O’Donnell’s sense was that McCarthy was toast.

Evidently, that wasn’t true, and today was another day of total humiliation for McCarthy. So, why didn’t Trump act? For the same reason he didn’t act during the Insurrection. He was getting what he wanted.

The way I imagine it played out is like this: Yesterday, after the House was adjourned, all of Trump’s minions called Daddy Donald to find out what they should do, and, Daddy Donald said to continue supporting McCarthy, although I can’t imagine what reasons he could provide that make sense. But, since Daddy Donald’s goal is regain his power over the Republican Party, create chaos, and make sure that every Republican House member feels beholden to him, before he ultimately solves the problem, he continued executing the plan he already had started.

The first step was to support Kevin McCarthy’s candidacy for Majority Speaker. Trump knows McCarthy is weak, and would humiliate himself in every way possible in order to win. But, equally important, McCarthy would never withdraw until he is told to do so.

The second step was to galvanize an opposition to McCarthy’s candidacy, and he chose Matt Gaetz, alleged sex trafficker and alleged participant in trying to overturn the 2020 election, to lead the revolt against McCarthy. Gaetz was the perfect choice because Trump uses every opportunity he can find to diminish our democracy and our elected officials by emboldening people who are unqualified to run for office, like Hershel Walker and Dr. Oz, or those who have been publicly disgraced, like Brett Kavanaugh and Matt Gaetz.

At one point, during the Kavanaugh SCOTUS hearing, it was reported that the only reason Trump continued supporting Kavanaugh, despite Trump’s advisors telling him to dump Kavanaugh after the backlash due to the alleged rape of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford (and possibly others who weren’t allowed to testify), was because Trump said he could control him due to his disgrace.

The third step was for Trump to continue supporting McCarthy today because he needs every Republican Representative to start feeling a sense of desperation that this will go on interminably. And, my guess is that Trump undoubtedly spent yesterday and today in his dining room at Mar-a-Lago watching the fiasco on his televisions with glee. Whether he’ll end it tonight is everyone’s guess.

Trump’s fourth step will be to anoint someone new, probably Stefanik or Scalise, who will remain totally loyal to Trump for the privilege of having been chosen. He will tell them what they owe him in exchange for his endorsement, which probably will have something to do with his participation in naming chairs and members of committees, as well as their commitment to all the revenge actions Trump and Jordan have laid out.

And, thus, Trump will have met all of his objectives. As the narcissistic sociopath he is, he has made Republicans suffer for blaming him for the midterms, and doubting his relevance and power. He will have proven that he still is the leader of his Party, because every group within the House Republican Caucus will be loyal and grateful to him. He will force them to pledge their allegiance to his 2024 campaign. And, he will force them to pursue the revenge agenda that he Jordan, and the new Majority Speaker have agreed upon.

Trump’s fifth step will be to announce his new pick on social media or have one of his minions call a press conference to announce it, and credit Trump. January 6 would be the most dramatic day, as well as the most disrespectful day, in which to do it, and perhaps it will happen sooner.

For those of you who don’t think this is plausible, you have to remember Rep. Liz Cheney’s speech during the January 6 Select Committee hearing, in which she said that Donald Trump was involved in every facet of the Insurrection, and it wouldn’t have happened without him.

I believe Donald Trump is involved in every facet of the House Majority Speaker debacle, and it wouldn’t have happened without him. For the last 100 years, Republicans and Democrats were able to chose a Majority Speaker without a problem. It is only now, that Trump possibly is involved, that he has delayed, and tainted this process.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/4/2145361/-One-scenario-Trump-has-orchestrated-the-House-Majority-Speaker-debacle-and-McCarthy-was-his-foil

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