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Ukraine Invasion Day 315: Putin confirms that Russia is continuing its child kidnapping [1]

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Date: 2023-01-03

Russian Defense Ministry says the main reason for Makiivka attack was unauthorized use of mobile phones by Russian servicemen which allowed Ukrainian forces to determine the target location.

US official tells @CBSDavidMartin estimated 200-500 Russians killed or wounded in #Ukraine HIMARS strike; explosives were located in same building as troops causing secondary explosions

Prigozhin is likely setting information conditions to blame Wagner Group's failure to take Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian industrial base. Wagner Group soldiers told Prigozhin that they were unable to break through Ukrainian lines in Bakhmut due to insufficient armored vehicles, ammunition, and 100mm shell supplies during a likely scripted segment in the clip. This statement seeks to absolve the Wagner Group and Prigozhin of personal responsibility by attributing their failure to capture Bakhmut to the larger Russian resource allocation problems that Russian and Ukrainian sources have been increasingly discussing since late December.[20]

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to justify the Wagner Group’s lack of progress in Bakhmut, partially supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces in Bakhmut are culminating.[15] Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti amplified a December 31 interview with Prigozhin on January 3 in which Prigozhin stated that Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut are unable to break through Ukrainian defenses in Bakhmut.[16] Prigozhin stated that Wagner's offensive operations in Bakhmut are highly attritional because each house in Bakhmut is a “fortress,” that Ukrainians have defensive lines every 10 meters, and that Russian forces must clear building-by-building.[17] This is a significant inflection for Prigozhin and the first time he has framed Wagner forces in Bakhmut as making effectively no gains. Prigozhin previously stated in October 2022 that Wagner forces operating in the Bakhmut area advance 100–200 meters a day.[18] The Wagner Group conducted information operations to assert that Wagner Group forces exclusively made gains in Bakhmut without the assistance of other Russian elements in December.[19]

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 3



7-day average of Troops, UAVs, Tanks, Artillery & Vehicles increases between days



TODAY'S REPORTED LOSSES:

5x daily changes over 7-day average

5x 7-day average increases



📈 https://t.co/d8siwzxANC pic.twitter.com/syTIqyjQ0p — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) January 3, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on January 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Rozdolivka (18km northeast), Soledar (10km northeast), and Krasna Hora (5km northeast); and south of Bakhmut near Kurdyumivka (12km southwest) and Klishchiivka (6km southwest).[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner Group forces launched an assault toward Krasna Hora and are continuing attempts to push north towards Bakhmut from positions near Klishchiivka, Ozeryanivka (14km southwest of Bakhmut), and Opytne (3km south of Bakhmut).[27] Geolocated combat footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian vehicles and infantry elements north of Soledar, indicating that Russian forces have established positions in this area.[28]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on January 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove), Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[21] Geolocated footage posted on January 3 shows Russian forces operating 1km north of Bilohorivka, indicating that Russian forces have made marginal advances around the settlement.[22] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces used thermobaric artillery systems, a high-value military district-level asset, to strike Ukrainian forces in the Kreminna area.[23] The Russian military’s use of a military district-level asset in the Kreminna area indicates that Russian forces are likely continuing to prioritize operations along the Kreminna-Svatove line amidst the Russian military’s potential preparation for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast.[24]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian forces claimed they established positions on the Velykyi Potomkin Island in the Dnipro River delta southwest of Kherson City as of January 2. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces reached the northeastern part of the island as of January 2, and some social media users claimed that Ukrainian forces captured parts or all of the island.[37] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on January 3 that ”there is information” that Ukrainian forces have captured the island but there is currently no official confirmation.[38] Geolocated footage posted on January 2 shows that Russian forces still operate in other areas of the delta.[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that the island remains a contested zone and that reports of Ukrainian forces capturing the island are a Ukrainian information operation.[40]

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian force concentrations in the rear areas of southern Ukraine. Geolocated footage posted on January 2 shows the destroyed “Gran Prix” stud farm complex in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast following a Ukrainian strike.[41] A Russian soldier had previously posted a picture of himself standing in front of the complex’s logo, a violation of operational security principles that likely aided Ukrainian troops in targeting the strike.[42] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration in Chukalivka, Kherson Oblast (35km southwest of Kherson City on the T2216 highway) on December 31, killing and wounding 500 Russian military personnel.[43] Russian milbloggers denied reports of the strike.[44] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration in Fedorivka (likely referring to a settlement along either the E58 or R47 highways in eastern Kherson Oblast) on January 1 and are still determining Russian casualties.[45] A Ukrainian source reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian forces in Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast (69km south of the Dnipro River on the T2202 Nova Kakhovka-Armiansk highway).[46] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on January 3 that Ukrainian forces shelled a hospital in Tokmak, and geolocated footage shows damage to a medical facility where Russian forces reportedly had positions.[47] Russian sources reported that Russian air defenses shot down likely Ukrainian drones over Sevastopol and Dzhankoi, Crimea, on January 2 and 3.[48]

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian occupation officials are working to strengthen their administrative control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The Ukrainian Resistance Center warned on January 3 that Russian occupation officials plan to appoint Dmitry Minyaev, a Rosenergoatom (a subsidiary of Russian nuclear energy agency Rosatom) special security services official, as the ZNPP deputy director for physical protection and regime issues sometime in January 2023.[49]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Missiles hit residential buildings, a hotel, and Ukraine Palace in Kyiv after Russia launched another massive strike on Ukraine on New Year’s Evehttps://t.co/SaPNXDCA2C

📽️by Tsaplienko pic.twitter.com/iwI82fKKCE — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) January 3, 2023

Mourners have voiced grief and anger at a rare public commemoration in Russia for the scores of soldiers killed on New Year’s Eve.

Admitting its worst military losses from a single Ukrainian attack, Russia on Tuesday said 89 servicemen were killed when a temporary deployment point was struck in Makiivka, a town in the eastern region of Donetsk partially held by separatists since 2014.

The strategic communications directorate of Ukraine’s armed forces claimed on Sunday that about 400 mobilised Russian soldiers were killed and about 300 more were wounded. That claim could not be independently verified.

‘Every house a fortress’: Wagner leader counts cost as Russia stalls in Bakhmut Russian bloggers say many of the victims were reservists recently mobilised into the army. About 200 people laid roses and wreaths in a central square in the city of Samara – where some of the servicemen came from – as an Orthodox priest recited a prayer. Soldiers also fired a gun salute at the commemoration, where some of the mourners could be seen holding flags for the ruling United Russia party. www.theguardian.com/...

x NEW: We've spent several months investigating pro-Putin activists across Germany who are agitating for Berlin to cut aid to Ukraine and pursue peace with Russia. Here are some of our findings... pic.twitter.com/i60Jl3pny1 — Mari Saito (@saitomri) January 3, 2023

We have discovered, through interviews and a wide review of social media posts and other online information, that key figures in this campaign in Germany have links to the Russian state or to far-right movements. Pro-Putin operatives in Germany work to turn Berlin against Ukraine

These include organizers of several pro-Russia protests in Cologne who traveled together to Donbas last year to distribute aid. In a video of their trip, Elena Kolbasnikova and Max Schlund thanked the People's Front, a group headed by Vladimir Putin, for help organizing the trip.

Max Schlund actually used to be called Rostislav Teslyuk in Russia. His partner’s brother said Schlund served as a senior lieutenant in the Russian Air Force. In 2022 Schlund completed a transaction to buy an apartment in Moscow, according to Russia’s property registry.

Over the summer in Berlin, a man in a suit attended an event held by the German Communist Party. At one of the event panels ("Peace with Russia") the businessman, Oleg Eremenko, argued that Ukrainian youths were being taught to hate Russia. @Reuters Pro-Putin operatives in Germany work to turn Berlin against UkraineI

Eremenko confirmed to Reuters that he worked for the GRU. He said he served inside Russia but declined to give details. “I served, and that’s it,” he said. “I’m now in Germany in, let’s say, a civilian status,” promoting Russian culture and memorialising World War Two dead.

Eremenko has also been pictured with Igor Girkin. Six yrs ago, Eremenko took part in a Russian dating show where a close associate of Girkin appeared on stage as one of his friends. Asked about it all, he said: “Too much information will do no favours for the pro-Russian side"

Here are some of the other figures involved in public rallies and online work to push a pro-Kremlin message. Seewald is behind a Telegram account called that shares memes and German translations of Putin's speeches. He's been cited by Bavaria's verfassungsschutz as an extremist.

As always, if you have any information that you think would be of interest to us please reach out via DM or email. Falls Sie Informationen haben, die für uns von Interesse sein könnten, bin ich per DM oder E-Mail erreichbar.

• • •

x Mystery over third Russian death in India in two weeks https://t.co/WMmCXYpjki — The Independent (@Independent) January 3, 2023

x #Ukrainian brings her ‘kidnapped’ daughter home from Russia - The Times of London. Since the start of the war, 13,613 children have been identified as taken out of Ukraine by #Russia. #Putin #WarCrimes https://t.co/Ah9YhyWiNh — Doug Blackwell 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 (@Doug_Blackwell) January 3, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia is using a variety of social schemes to justify the transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. In his annual New Year's speech, Putin thanked Russians for their efforts to send children from occupied Ukrainian territory on “holidays.”[4] ISW has previously reported instances of Russian officials using the guise of “holidays” and vacation schemes to justify the transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea.[5] Putin’s list of instructions also directs Russian Commissioner for the Rights of the Child Maria Lvova-Belova and the occupation heads of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts to "take additional measures to identify minors...left without parental care” in occupied areas to provide them with ”state social assistance” and ”social support.”[6] The Kremlin may seek to use this social benefit scheme to tabulate the names of children it deems to be orphans to identify children for deportation to Russia and potentially open avenues for their adoption into Russian families. ISW continues to note that the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.[7]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x That Putin's Commissioner for Children's Rights in Russia Maria Lvova-Belova openly advocates stripping kidnapped children of their Ukrainian identities and teaching them to love Russia makes her a war criminal https://t.co/gSkqsjN2kZ #ukraine — Michael Deibert (@michaelcdeibert) December 25, 2022

A total of 46 children, all under the age of 5 and some with disabilities, were transferred from the children’s home in Kherson to Simferopol in occupied Crimea by Russian authorities, who claimed they were doing so to guarantee the children’s safety. A month earlier, two others were deported from the home to Moscow, according to former employees. It’s unclear if either group of children were transferred elsewhere afterward, and their whereabouts remain uncertain, employees said. Similar deportations have taken place across various parts of Russian-occupied Ukraine; according to Ukrainian authorities, over 13,000 children have been transferred out of Ukrainian territory since the war began. According to the Associated Press, many of these deported children have been given Russian citizenship and culturally Russified after being adopted by new, Russian families—a pattern that, according to experts, fits squarely within the definition of genocide under the Genocide Convention.

www.thedailybeast.com/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/3/2145149/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-315-Putin-confirms-that-Russia-is-continuing-its-child-kidnapping

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