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Ukraine Weather: A Hard Freeze in the East Next Week [1]
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Date: 2023-01-02
Temperature anomaly in degrees C Thursday Jan 5, U.S. GFS model courtesy of www.tropicaltidbits.com
It has been warmer-than-normal in most of western Europe and all of Ukraine this week. However, by next Monday, a much colder air mass forming over most of Russia is projected to drop into Ukraine. The coldest weather will be in northeast Ukraine, but most battle zones except perhaps the far south are predicted to be well below freezing for at least several days. Both the U.S. GFS and European medium range weather models show this trend now.
It now appears more likely that General Winter will replace General Mud in eastern Ukraine, at least for a while. It also seems that western Europe will remain above freezing, which should help prevent heating gas prices from rising, hopefully.
GFS temp anomaly in degrees C, Monday Jan 9, courtesy www.tropicaltidbits.com
The models differ a little on the specifics, with the Euro taking freezing weather all the way into Crimea, with the GFS not as cold in southern Ukraine. This is the Euro (a bit colder) projection of the actual surface temperatures in degrees Celsius by Monday.
ECMWF surface temp in degrees C, Monday Jan 9, courtesy of www.tropicaltidbits.com
Both of the operational models show temps remaining above freezing in most of Europe west of Ukraine and Belarus and the Baltic states through the next 10 days.
At this point, the Euro is leaning toward above-freezing weather returning to the the Ukrainian battle zones about 10 days from now, while GFS keeps it below freezing in the more extended range. But both models show a bit warmer over Ukraine by that time. Of course, even broad brush model guidance beyond the first seven days is very uncertain.
I am relieved that most of Europe seems to be having a warmer-than-normal winter so far, since that helps mitigate Putin’s heating gas blackmail. I hope this next week’s weather helps the defenders and hastens the invaders’ retreat back to their own damned country.
As always, weather models may not always be accurate, etc. Thanks for reading!
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