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THIS WEEK IN CONGRESS: Speaker, Speaker, Who Will Be Speaker? w/Poll! [1]

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Date: 2023-01-02

Posted to remind everyone what a REAL Speaker looks like.

This Week In Congress (TWIC)

Your One Stop Shop For Learning What Our Congress Critters Are Up To!

Before we get started with will be happening in Congress this week, just a little “heads up” on what the 2023 version of TWIC will be like. First off, don’t expect regular weekly postings like in 2022. Some of us have lives beyond DKos which is in no way meant to be derogatory against the folks who live here. So I will post when I can. Second, I have ditched a lot of the 2022 format, in that I will not attempt to follow everything that went on in the past week and what’s happening in the week ahead. I will likely only focus on certain events and the posts will likely be shorter than those in 2022. Third, I will try to avoid posting anything about the depressing (phony) House Benghazi-Type Hearings, unless something amusing happens (which it probably will).

I apologize to any of my (2 or 3) loyal followers who are disappointed with my new sporadic and abbreviated posts, But I will do my best. Now onto this week’s event(s):

Here Are The Headlines :

House Speaker Election — Break Out The Popcorn!

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Senate To Swear In Its New Dem. Majority

House :

Speaker Election — Tomorrow, January 3, the House will convene to (maybe) elect its new Speaker. Before we get into the fun part of what might happen, it’s important we lay out the “Rules of the Game”.

The election is conducted under the “Standing Rules of the House” which carryover from one Congress to the next, as opposed to the rules passed during each Congress which sunset (expire) every two years at the end of each Congressional term. So curtesy of the House Website, here is the pertinent part of the Standing Rules which applies to the Speaker election:

Sec. 3 . Election Speaker Chosen from Members Article I, section 2 of the Constitution directs that the House choose its Speaker and other officers. The Speaker is the only House officer who traditionally has been chosen from the sitting membership of the House. Manual Sec. 26. The Constitution does not limit his selection from among that class, but the practice has been followed invariably. The Speaker's term of office thus expires at the end of his term of office as a Member, whereas the other House officers continue in office ``until their successors are chosen and qualified.'' Rule II clause 1; 1 Hinds Sec. 187. Nomination and Vote The general practice for election of Speaker begins with nominations from each party caucus followed by a viva voce vote of the Members-elect. Relying on the Act of June 1, 1789, the Clerk recognized for nominations for Speaker as being of higher constitutional privilege than a resolution to postpone the election of a Speaker and instead provide for the election of[[Page 639]] a Speaker pro tempore pending the disposition of certain ethics charges against the nominee of the majority party. 2 USC Sec. 25; Manual Sec. 27. Under the modern practice, the Speaker is elected by a majority of Members-elect voting by surname, a quorum being present. Manual Sec. 27; 1 Hinds Sec. 216; 6 Cannon Sec. 24. The Clerk appoints tellers for this election. However, the House, and not the Clerk, decides by what method it shall elect. 1 Hinds Sec. 210. For former practices relating to the election of the Speaker, see Manual Sec. 27; 1 Hinds Sec. Sec. 212, 214, 218; 8 Cannon Sec. 3883. In two instances the House agreed to choose and subsequently did choose a Speaker by a plurality of votes but confirmed the choice by majority vote. In 1849 the House had been in session 19 days without being able to elect a Speaker, no candidate having received a majority of the votes cast. The voting was viva voce, each Member responding to the call of the roll by naming the candidate for whom he voted. Finally, after the fifty-ninth ballot, the House adopted a resolution declaring that a Speaker could be elected by a plurality. 1 Hinds Sec. 221. In 1856 the House again struggled over the election of a Speaker. Ballots numbering 129 had been taken without any candidate receiving a majority of the votes cast. The House then adopted a resolution permitting the election to be decided by a plurality. 1 Hinds Sec. 222. On both of these occasions, the House ratified the plurality election by a majority vote.

Based on the above, here are some important points to keep in mind as you watch tomorrow’s spectacle unfold:

1. The election is run by the “Clerk of the House” which is a bureaucratic position that carries over from Congress to Congress.

2. No other business can be conducted in the House until the Speaker is elected, which includes the swearing in of House members. That is why it says the “Members-elect” in the above, since the Speaker is elected by the members who were elected last year (in this case 2022) but have not been sworn in.

3. In general, a candidate for Speaker is nominated by each Party. However, I am pretty sure other nominations can be made from the floor and/or Members are allowed to vote for candidates who are not nominated.

4. As indicated above, historically, the nominees come from within the House, but the Constitution allows for nomination of non-Members, (i.e., anyone).

5. Per The Congressional Institute, the Speaker is elected by a majority of Members-elect Present , with some historic exceptions as noted above. So that means Members-elect must be present in the chamber to vote. There is no allowance for proxy voting as we saw during the last Congress. Proxy voting was a rule passed by 116th Congress due to COVID which expired with the end of that Congress. (NOTE: Whether the Republicans decide to pass a proxy voting rule after the Speakers election is an open question. They were dead set against it last year, but with such a small majority they may change their tune since at any time if 5 or more House Republicans can’t be present on the floor for votes and Democrats are in a temporary majority, the House could pass Democrat sponsored legislation. God-Forbid!) So what a “majority is will depend on how many Members-elect show up tomorrow. If all show up, a majority will be 218.

6. If no candidate gets a majority on the first ballot, subsequent votes are held until a candidate gets a majority, unless the Members-elect decide otherwise as indicated in the historic example above after 59 ballots. That means the House could pass a resolution to elect a Speaker by a “plurality” rather than a “majority” of the Members-elect. But such a resolution would require a majority to pass, so it is somewhat of a “Catch 22”.

So What Will Happen Tomorrow?

No one really knows for sure, and if someone says they know, don’t believe them. But it seems likely we will need more that one ballot to elect a Speaker for the first time in decades. Beyond that, I have laid out some possibilities in the poll below for folks to vote on. My guess is we end up with McCarthy as Speaker either by making deals with the crazies making it easier for them to boot him out or by a resolution like the one above allowing for him to become Speaker with only a plurality of the vote. But I won’t rule out an outside chance that a “moderate” consensus candidate could win with 100% Dem. support and a handful of “moderate” Republicans. I have laid out some possibilities in the poll below for you all to vote on.

Senate :

On the bright side, the Senate will swear in its new majority this week, which will be highlighted by the wearing in of John Fetterman, the biggest Senator in the room.

THAT’S ALL FOR NOW! Told you it would be short.

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