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Daily Kos Elections 2022 Predictions Contest Prize [1]

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Date: 2023-01-02

The full assortment!

This fall I entered the Daily Kos Elections 2022 Predictions Contest. I am not much of a contest winner so I just expected to have some fun. I spend most of the year teaching public administration in South Korea so I cannot usually take advantage of prizes in any case, but I was unusually engaged with the midterm elections, had a lot of information, and like taking surveys, so just answering the questions with the predictions for the contest was a lot of fun.

I live with my Mom on her farm when I am in the US and I thought I could share the prize with her. I know she always loves baked goods and I had vague memories of Green’s Bakery and I assumed she would be a fan (little did I know how much of a fan.

Rugelach!

Due to the stakes of the 2022 elections, I was following the coverage fairly closely. I had the impression that the media largely had the whole thing wrong. Mom and I had quite a number of conversations about how the media seemed to be just running pro-Republican propaganda all of the time.

I stopped paying regular attention to mainstream media in the late 1980s because I could not stand how elitist conservative and corporate it had already become by then. Mom, on the other hand, still watches network TV and we had quite a few conversations about how the major networks just seemed to campaigning for a Republican win.

Fighting the sinking feeling promoted by the media and Republican partisans trying to will a major wave into existence, I wanted to provide a realistic counter for mom and other friends and family also fighting against being overwhelmed by propagandistic predictions of a “red tide” sweeping aside Democratic hopes.

Dad used to love Black and Whites...

I was already paying close attention and checking in with RCP, 538, and Cook for almost daily updates on top of following all of the Daily Kos Elections digests.

I decided to set up a spreadsheet with the predictions of the three aggregators for every House district as well as the Daily Kos Elections breakdown of Biden and Trump vote share for the new districts, the incumbents, and the political and geographic predecessor districts.

I added my own notes from reading and listening to analyses. My general impression from following special elections and primaries was already that the Democrats were likely to outperform historical expectations at a significant level. The fantastic information provided by Daily Kos Elections was invaluable in aiding this process by providing realistic comparisons on a district-by-district basis.

Babka!

I did not have time to try to create models of my own and just eyeballed the prospects on a district-by district basis, though I did consult some poli sci models to make sure that I did not let my enthusiasm go beyond what was historically probable.

I ended up placing #4! I won!

As one not prone to winning contests, I was pretty excited.

As noted above and documented by my mother’s delicious pictures, the prize was an assortment from the famous Green's Bakery.

More Babka!

I notified Mom a package would be arriving soon so she could look out for it (I would not be coming home for the holidays). She was excited I had won the contest, but was not clear at first that she was getting the assortment. Her initial reaction was that I have had a tough time and could use a treat. Boy, was she excited to find out she was in for the treat!

Mom was a fan of Green's from when she and Dad lived in New Jersey for thirty years and has mentioned on many occasions how she misses it.

She was pretty excited when the package arrived on Saturday just in time for New Year's Eve! We had just had our usual long weekly Zoom talk on Friday evening and we were both disappointed it had not yet arrived. I had just finished grading for the semester and Mom had been through some harsh prairie weather. Furthermore, our call was hampered by the wifi being knocked out on the farm so Mom had to talk on the phone instead of her iPad and she had to shut off the video to keep the stream going. Needless to say, we were both ready for a pick-me-up.

More Rugelach!

She sent me an email with pictures announcing: “It arrived just now-FedEx!!”

She kept sending more emails with more pictures as she unpacked the package and discovered and documented new things.

I recognized all of the assortment from visiting New York and assortments we had at grad school functions at Rutgers. I cannot name or comment directly on any of the particular contents, though, except for the Black and Whites, because I have quite a few memories of Dad swinging by a local deli to pick up one on the way to or from one of his many projects.

Hamantashen!

Although I am more than a little disappointed that I will not share any of these when they are fresh (Mom has promised to freeze some for my next visit), I am happy to hear that these are going to good use. Not only will Mom enjoy it (along with anyone who drops by to visit), but she announced she was sharing.

Her last email on the topic announced: “I have already contacted Pastor Shari, and she is happy that I am bringing Jewish baked goods for after church tomorrow!”

“I will send you a photo when I get the platter arranged later!” The last delicious picture in the series.

“I am going to freeze a few things—I told her that we are good for January!”

“Otherwise, if no one offers to bring anything, Shari has to add stopping for donuts onto all of her duties (a lot of death and dying. . . )” The reference to death and dying is to how the pandemic has devastated the population of older people in the rural central Nebraska community.

The assortment prepared for church on New Year’s Day.

At any rate, I am so grateful for the blessing of a delightful and delicious assortment of fine baked goods and am very thankful to Daily Kos Elections and Green’s Bakery for making it happen!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/2/2144866/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2022-Predictions-Contest-Prize

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