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Ukraine Invasion Day 313: AFU/ZSU shot down 45+ drones. Casualties still doubled for Russia [1]
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Date: 2023-01-01
People who refer derisively to “Russiagate” should look more closely. There will be no ‘Ukrainegate’ (see the first Trump Impeachment, especially when documents get declassified).
Tax-free income and frozen sperm are the advantages of fighting for Russia, which is not identical to fighting for anti-imperialism.
As both sides enter a far more challenging season of fighting, the outcome will largely depend on morale and determination. While Russian troops curse their shortages and lack of hot food, Ukrainian troops are now benefiting from supplies of insulated camouflage suits, tents with stoves, and sleeping bags provided by Canada and the Nordic nations. Putin seems to be in denial about the state of his army and the way that General Winter will favor his opponents. He may also have made another mistake by concentrating his missiles against Ukraine’s energy network and its vulnerable civilian population. They will endure the greatest suffering, but there is little chance that they will break.
Putin’s new commander in chief in the south, General Sergei Surovikin, is determined to clamp down on attempts by some conscripts to avoid combat. Many have been resorting to the sabotage of fuel, weapons, and vehicles, to say nothing of self-inflicted wounds and desertion. Yet the Russian army’s long-standing structural problem—its shortage of experienced noncommissioned officers—has also led to a terrible record of maintaining weapons, equipment, and vehicles. These problems will become especially costly in winter with sensitive technology such as drones.
In February 2022, eight years later, Putin launched his “special military operation” in Ukraine . At the time, the vanguard was told to bring their parade uniforms ready to celebrate victory—one of the greatest examples of military hubris in history. Yet seven disastrous months later, when the Kremlin was finally forced to order a “partial mobilization” of the Russian population, it had to warn those called up that uniforms and equipment were in short supply. They would have to provide their own body armor and even ask their mothers and girlfriends for sanitary pads to use instead of field dressings. The lack of bandages is astonishing, especially now as winter intensifies, since they are vital to keep frost from entering open wounds. Adding to the dangers are mortar rounds hitting frozen ground: unlike soft mud, which absorbs most of the blast, frozen ground causes fragments to ricochet, in sometimes lethal ways.
Yet Putin’s greatest triumph in Russian eyes was the covert seizure of Crimea the year before by infiltrating it with un-uniformed “little green men” from special forces. This was part of Putin’s angry reaction to the Maidan revolution in Kyiv, which forced his ally President Viktor Yanukovych to flee and led to the start of fighting in the Donbas region of Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces in the air and on the ground shot down 45 Iranian-made explosive drones fired by Russia on Saturday night and before dawn on Sunday, Zelenskyy said. Iran denies providing Russia with the weapons.
“Drones, missiles, everything else will not help them,” he said of the Russians. “Because we stand united. They are united only by fear.”
In a video address on Sunday night, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised his citizens’ “sense of unity, of authenticity, of life itself”. Russia, he said, “will not take away a single year from Ukraine. They will not take away our independence. We will not give them anything.”
Another strike at noon Sunday in the southern Zaporizhzhia region killed one person, according to the head of the regional military administration, Alexander Starukh.
Russian authorities have announced that soldiers and state employees deployed in Ukraine will be exempt from income tax , in the latest effort to encourage support for its military operation there.
The US is concerned by China’s alignment with Russia as Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine, the US said after the presidents of Russia and China, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, held a video meeting on Friday.
Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said Russia may be preparing a new mobilisation order and could close its border to men eligible to fight within a week.
Ukrainian air defence forces destroyed 45 Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including 32 during attacks on Kyiv as its citizens attempted to welcome in the new year, Ukrainian command said.
Russia launched more than 20 cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets on Saturday, killing at least one person in Kyiv, the capital, and injuring another 20 people in what one Ukrainian official described as “terror on New Year’s Eve”. Fourteen of the injured were taken to hospital and at least one was in critical condition after Moscow’s second major missile attack in three days.
Russian leaders issued a series of defiant messages ahead of new year . President Vladimir Putin said Russia would “never give in” to the west, and was fighting for its “motherland, truth and justice … so that Russia’s security can be guaranteed”. It was his longest new year’s address in his two decades in charge.
Russia has claimed its strikes against Ukraine on New Year’s Eve that killed three people were targeting its neighbour’s drone production. A children’s hospital was among the buildings said to have been hit by Russian shelling. Ukrainian officials claim Russia is deliberately targeting civilians to sow fear.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that his only wish for Ukrainians for 2023 was victory and he resolved to stay the course . “I want to wish all of us one thing – victory,” he said in a video message shortly before midnight as Ukrainians marked their first new year since the invasion. Zelenskiy reiterated that he would stay with his people while they were fighting for freedom. “We were told to surrender. We chose a counterattack,” he said. “We are ready to fight for it [freedom]. That’s why each of us is here. I’m here, we are here, you are here, everyone is here. We are all Ukraine.”
x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 1
Highlights: Artillery, Troops & Vehicles
TODAY'S REPORT:
760 troop losses ⬆
7-day troop average: 667 ⬆
30 equipment* losses ⬆
7-day equipment* average: 31 ➡
* Land-based only
📈
https://t.co/GpAnBvPwQq pic.twitter.com/RWmWuK8m9m — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦
[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) January 1, 2023
x A 🧵on RU + UA losses per @Volya_media, for 11/8/22-12/8/22.
Losses = Killed, Missing, POW
TLDR:
🇷🇺 21,320- 21,380 Losses (93.8k-98.1k total)
🇷🇺 43,200- 43,469 WIA (177k-190.5k total)
🇺🇦 7,900- 8,100 Losses (47.2k-50.3k total)
🇺🇦 23,980- 24,000 WIA (89.6k-95.5k total)
1/11 pic.twitter.com/6rSv7kyieK — LanguageLearner (@LanguageIearner) December 12, 2022
🇷🇺 RU losses breakdown 11/8-12/8/22
🇷🇺Army (including DPR/LPR):
11,830-11,850 losses
24,708-24,768 WIA
🇷🇺Natl Guard:
1,100-1,120 losses
2,420-2,550 WIA
Wagner/PMCs:
8,293-8,297 losses
15,940-16,010 WIA
🇷🇺Navy/Marines:
100 losses
130-139 WIA
~2,156 casualties/day
2/11
🇺🇦UA Losses for 11/8-12/8/22
110- 130 losses due to rear line missile strikes.
202- 206 WIA due to rear line missile strikes.
7,790- 7,970 losses on all fronts .
23,778- 23,794 WIA on all fronts (including sick leave).
~1,066 casualties/day.
3/11
🇷🇺 RU overall losses until 12/8/22:
93,780 - 98,111 losses (~334/day).
~30% are MIA.
176,984- 190,485 WIA (~640/day)
~40% are lightly wounded, mostly return to duty.
Not all are wounded at same time.
Total casualties: 270.7k- 288.6k in 287 days (~974 a day)
4/11 ~30% are MIA.176,984- 190,485 WIA (~640/day)~40% are lightly wounded, mostly return to duty.Not all are wounded at same time.Total casualties: 270.7k- 288.6k in 287 days (~974 a day)4/11
🇺🇦UA overall losses until 12/8/22:
41,187- 50,356 losses (~160/day)
~20% are MIA
89,652- 95,488 WIA ( ~322/day)
~50% are lightly wounded, mostly return to duty.
Total casualties: 130.8k-145.8k (~493/day)
UA counts UAF, NGU, TDF, Police, Intl Legion in these figures.
5/11
The majority of these recent casualties came from activities in 3 regions:
Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar/Pavlivka. All are in Donetsk oblast.
The majority of RU losses are recently mobilized forces, hence the uptick in recent months since they arrived in 10/22.
6/11
Volya asserts that these losses, while RU was engaged in only about 3 offensive attempts of note, are unsustainable for the RU military.
As a consequence, RU mobilization will likely continue, especially if Putin wants large scale offensives. Воля/Volya
Over time, differences of 2-300 here and there add up. Hence the spread, especially among total estimates across 9 months of war.
8/11 Why is there such a range in these figures? The lower bounds are what Volya can personally verify, the upper bounds are including OSINT data.Over time, differences of 2-300 here and there add up. Hence the spread, especially among total estimates across 9 months of war.8/11
In terms of total 🇷🇺 RU losses:
🇷🇺had approximately 210k of its most combat ready troops involved in the initial invasion.
The 🇷🇺 MoD claimed 1.151 million personnel as of 2/22 (in all capacities)
🇷🇺had about 70k lightly wounded, so ~200k people out of the fight
9/11
In terms of total 🇺🇦UA losses:
UA has expanded their defense forces 6x since Feb.
~10% of that strength has taken casualties (~137k).
>44k are lightly wounded who returned to service, so the overall depletion of UA forces is likely <10% of the total strength.
10/11
@Volya_media Has been tracking RU/UA casualties via numerous sources since the early days of the war, and have had their data echoed by other estimates.
They are RU-language media, but very much anti-Putin.
Here's their breakdown:
11/11🧵 Regarding sources and methods:Has been tracking RU/UA casualties via numerous sources since the early days of the war, and have had their data echoed by other estimates.They are RU-language media, but very much anti-Putin.Here's their breakdown:11/11🧵
There's roughly 1.5 🇷🇺/.75 🇺🇦casualty per min.
In the time period you likely took to read this:
3-5 🇷🇺 soldiers and 1-3 🇺🇦soldiers became casualties. There's ~500 words in this thread. Average person would read this thread, with diagrams, in about 2-3 minutes.There's roughly 1.5 🇷🇺/.75 🇺🇦casualty per min.In the time period you likely took to read this:🇷🇺 soldiers and 1-3 🇺🇦soldiers became casualties.
• • •
All NATO western type tanks
M1 Abrams 6,209
Leopard 2 (A6/A7) 703
Leopard 2 (A4/A5) 620
Leclerc 406
Challenger 2- 227
Total Main Battle Tanks- 8,165
European Battle Tanks- 1,956
x Personnel of the combat training from the combined unit of the Ukrainian army "Black Crow", which consists of former special forces soldiers of Ukraine and mercenaries from the retired special forces of the #Israeli army. members are currently in #Bakhmut (Artemovsk) pic.twitter.com/dX5iUQHGyY — Aletheia 🔱 (@mudsocksII) January 1, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space and remains focused on justifying the war and its costs to his people. Putin stated that “Russia’s sovereign, independent, and secure future depends only on us, on our strength and determination” and that 2022 “was a year of difficult, necessary decisions, of important steps toward achieving the full sovereignty of Russia and the powerful consolidation of our society.” He added that the events of 2022 “became the milestone that laid the foundation of our new common future, our new true independence.” He continued: “That is what we are fighting for even today, we are defending our people on our own historical territories in the new Russian Federation Subjects [the illegally annexed territories of Ukraine].” This speech continued Putin’s rhetorical claims not only that Russia has historical rights to Ukraine, but also that Russia’s independence and sovereignty depend on regaining control of Ukraine. Putin thereby attempts to cast victory in the war as essential to Russia’s continued existence as an independent state. These comments were likely meant in part to justify the costly war and to appeal to the ultra-nationalist pro-war community that routinely cites the defense of illegally annexed territories as a reason to pursue even more aggressive goals and to pay even higher prices for them in Ukraine. They also indicate, however, that Putin remains unwilling to contemplate a meaningful peaceful resolution of the war he began other than on terms he dictates to Ukraine and the West. Putin is unlikely to accept any lesser outcome unless Ukraine, with the help of its Western supporters, can inflict additional large-scale defeats on Russian forces and liberate considerably more of its occupied land.
www.understandingwar.org
x Watching User Clip: Biden Tells Story of Getting the Ukraine Prosecutor Fired @CSPAN
https://t.co/Q0v9cDERYV — Jerry BARTON (@JerryBA51493962) January 1, 2023
MSNBC's Nicolle Wallace dedicated her Boxing Day show to the shocking revelations from this year that Russia's Vladimir Putin was working with Donald Trump's allies because he thought he could take pieces of eastern Ukraine, specifically Mariupol, without waging his invasion.
Writing before the mid-term election, New York Times reporter Jim Rutenberg explained that hundreds of documents he's sifted through, in addition to former Robert Mueller prosecutor Andrew Weissmann's details, revealed enough to show what Putin was after when he worked to swing the 2016 election for Trump.
"What Weissman found was all along Paul Manafort and others were avoiding talking about the meeting at the cigar bar I just mentioned or the idea of the Mariupol plan, and it was concealed from them, they felt when Weissman gets new e-mails and information and sees things have been left out what he has learned so far from Mr. Manafort, who was speaking with prosecutors as they talked about a possible cooperation deal, and he said, what are they hiding here?" asked Rutenberg. "Well, here's what they are hiding well, what they are talking about is the east of Ukraine, and once you realize how important the east of Ukraine is to Putin, and that there was a Russian meddling operation to affect social media and disrupt American politics, it all came together for Mr. Weissman."
It prompted Wallace to wonder if the Manafort pardon was still part of all of that. Trump more recently claimed on his social media site that if he had been president the war with Ukraine wouldn't have happened. Wallace asked if that is because Trump would have handed Mariupol over to Putin as the Russian leader assumed.
"I don't know what was in his head. I do know there was an argument that one could make that had this plan gone forward," said Rutenberg. "And by the way, before it got a chance to, the Russian investigation really kicked in and Manafort was in legal trouble it really got stopped in its tracks. However, had that plan gone forward, arguably Putin would have gotten what he wanted and perhaps there would not have been a war and perhaps the flip side would be no Ukraine as we understand it. What any Ukrainian will tell you right now is that wouldn't have happened anyway, because what we have seen is the Ukrainian people would never have accepted that plan. But Putin's planning was never based on what the Ukrainian people would do or wouldn't do, as we now know. Yes, on paper, this would have given Putin what he wanted and would have rendered Ukraine as a broken democracy."
With the new information slotted into the Nov. 2022 report, however, it's clear to the Times' Washington investigative correspondent Mark Mazzetti that it ties together the major global events while the story unspools in real-time. Then, things didn't seem connected, now they do.
"If you take the events of the campaign election interference in 2016, Russia sabotaged the election, and the second event being the first impeachment of Donald Trump which was all about Ukraine, and recall that the person who has just been named Time magazine person of the year, Zelensky, was at the time at the other end of the call that Trump placed that was a shakedown call," said Mazzetti. "And Zelensky is not the person he is now, and then the third one was the invasion of the south. As Jim puts in his piece, Ukraine is the baseline running through this but it shows this was the prize — or at least a prize that Putin wanted. I think that's what is so important because it does show that all of this does have a piece."
Wallace noted that for seven years Trump has been trashing Ukraine. It came off at first as random and he was simply ignorant of foreign policy. "In hindsight, it looks very strategic," she said. "Russia hated Ukraine and wanted to seize parts of it, and Trump wanted to withhold military aid. What were the yellow flashing pieces of the story for you as you look at The Times' Russia coverage during the Trump presidency."
Mazzetti said that Trump was groomed over the years by Putin or by a Putin asset. If Hillary Clinton had been up against Jeb Bush, he said that Russia would have done about 50/50 interference. Instead, it was 100 percent all-in for Trump and suddenly pro-Putin allies joined the campaign.
www.rawstory.com/...
If Ukraine advances south from Kherson the Russian Navy may be drawn on to provide direct support to its troops. This could include fire support and ferrying supplies. But the threats to its warships will be severe.
Maritime drones, mines, aerial drones and land based short range missiles like British supplied Brimstone could take a toll. And if the ships venture further from shore to avoid these they could sail into a Harpoon trap. But if Ukraine does get a foothold into Crimea Russian commanders may see no choice but to accept the risks.
[...]
One of the reasons that Russian commanders may commit their warships to the fighting further north is because Sevastopol itself could come into range of systems such as HIMARS. This would be a showstopper and could result in abandonment of the port. Even before then, Ukraine getting more or better weapons able to reach the port will be a serious concern. In these scenarios we could see warships pushed to smaller ports on Crimea’s southern coast. And ultimately Russia’s own Black Sea coast. The other naval base at Novorossiysk is already relatively full so secondary ports would have to be used.
There are of course numerous other scenarios worth considering. Ukrainian advances reaching the Sea of Azov is of particular interest. This would be similar to scenario 2 (Pushed To Defend Crimea). Another point worth pondering is if Russia may attempt an amphibious landing. The threat of this is now much less than it was months ago, but they do still have landing ships. Overall the prospects of such a move would not be good. www.navalnews.com/…
x A host of shipping insurers alter policies for 2023 to exclude claims linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine, a further sign of the industry’s growing concerns about losses stemming from the conflict
https://t.co/1PH0p5vX3t via @markets @alexlongley1 @AlaricN — Robert Jameson (@rhjameson) January 1, 2023
[END]
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