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Top Comments: Happy New Year/Year-end wrap edition [1]
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Date: 2022-12-31
The former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner has said repeatedly on MSNBC:
No prosecutor wants to be the first to charge a former president who committed crimes. However, everybody will want to be the second to do so. Once that barrier is broken, and the white-hot glare of world media attention is focused on the first prosecutor and his or her office, then everybody's going to want to get into the prosecuting Donald Trump business.
I’m hoping that Fani Willis in Georgia will indict first, as:
1) She is not answerable to any Republicans (as, should the GOP prevail in the House, they'll drag Merrick Garland before a committee). She is only answerable to the voters of Fulton County. Plus, Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensperger and Gabriel Sterling have ample reason not to fall-on-their-swords for TFG.
2) Her special grand jury accumulated a great deal of documentary evidence and testimony — behind closed doors, away from the klieg lights. They cannot indict, but will prepare (or already have prepared) a detailed report. Then as early as January, Fani Willis can empanel a regular grand jury who can indict. My only jury duty history was on a grand jury … and with the exception of an arson case (where there were four witnesses, including the fire chief) we were given quick, rather perfunctory evidence to consider. The regular grand jury that Fani Willis will empanel (by contrast) should have a treasure trove of evidence to indict.
3) I’ve been wrong before: I thought the Cy Vance/Alvin Bragg team would indict … yet they passed. Fani Willis, though, has not hidden behind the “wherever the evidence takes us” boilerplate — she sent subpoenas to some heavy hitters, forced testimony .. and spoke boldly.
4) And finally … “Lordy, there is that tape”. That is the smoking gun.
I will add … in recent weeks, Alvin Bragg’s office indicated they are reviving a look into the case of the hush money paid to Stephanie (Stormy Daniels) Clifford — so perhaps they are aiming to be the 2nd or 3rd to indict?
Fani Willis — Fulton County
Lastly, on the predictions: I have to confess that I agree with the conclusion (if not the rationale) behind the diary that PvtJarHead wrote this past July, positing that FormerGuy will never face any actual prison time. As an analyst told MSNBC host Katy Phang, “I hope I’m wrong .. would love to be proven wrong .. yet”.
While I do expect (at least) one indictment to drop in 2023 .. any trial(s) may not start until 2024 … and in the event of convictions, the following may come-to-pass:
* Fear inside any judge who sentences him to more than home confinement
* Security arrangements necessary inside a Club Fed (unused to having them)
* Paparazzi and conservative media photographers hounding the prison staff
* The GOP House (Gym Jordan) will hold hearings on alleged “mistreatment”
* DOJ itself may seek only home confinement (due to Covid, age, “no priors”, lol)
All of this presumes he will not flee to a third country, et al. What I think may come-to-pass is any-or-all of the following:
* Home confinement plus a monitoring bracelet, plus probation.
* Fines, banned from holding public office, selling the Trump Organization
What I would love to see: have an auditing firm determine his actual net worth. They need not disclose a detailed report: just the bottom line — and one organization that would welcome this is Forbes Magazine … they would no longer have to make estimates as to whether he belongs in the Forbes 400 (or not).
“I’m shouting …. and you’re not!”
Finally, to end on a linguistic note: especially in sports (though not limited to that arena), the term goat used to mean something bad. The late Bill Russell (in a 1965 Game 7 with only 5 seconds left) made an inbound pass that hit the backboard’s guide wires, thus resulting in a turnover to the Philadelphia 76’ers who were trailing by only one point. In the timeout that followed, he begged his teammates “"Will someone please take these goat horns off my head?” — and as it turned out his teammate John Havlicek did so; stealing the inbounds pass to save-the-game.
As a child, I recall the NY Daily News sports cartoonist Bill Gallo drawing a Hero-Goat comparison for each game of the World Series, such as this one from Game 3 of the 1969 World Series … where even future Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer earned the goat horns (for allowing four runs and committing an error) while NY Mets center fielder Tommie Agee earned the hero award (in a 5-0 victory) by not only homering to lead off the bottom of the 1st inning but also made two sensational outfield catches that may well have saved five runs:
The late Frank Deford noted on NPR in 2011 that the old usage had long been supplanted by the new term GOAT — Greatest of All Time. And while in an endeavor — sports, music, literature, et al — there may be serious disagreement as to who is the GOAT .. one recent death may be close to a consensus.
The passing of Edson Arantes do Nascimento (of course known as Pele) was the only player who won the World Cup trophy three times and was named as FIFA's Player of the Century in the year 2000. With all of his achievements for Brazil (and his professional team Santos of Brazil) there’s also coming to New York and helping to plant the seeds for the sport’s eventual growth in the USA:
x Pele called it one of his life's great thrills to put a record 77,000-plus soccer fans in a building in the U.S. -- Giants Stadium. Still thrilled to have been one of those fans as a 12 year old. RIP to the GOAT of GOATs. pic.twitter.com/7PDOLKlgIn — Ian O'Connor (@Ian_OConnor) December 29, 2022
Let’s close with one of my favorite albums of 2022: a reformed late 60’s-early 70’s blues/rock band Steamhammer from the UK (with original guitarist Martin Pugh plus former Jefferson Starship band member Pete Sears). While this has some new songs … I liked a re-working of one of their old songs, I Wouldn’t Have Thought.
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