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Ukraine Invasion Day 311: the partial mobilization achieved, will there be a new offensive [1]

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Date: 2022-12-30

Russian and Ukrainian sources continued to discuss whether and when an imminent second wave of mobilization in Russia will occur. The first one was called a partial mobilization.

“So if you want a negotiated peaceful solution ensuring that Ukraine prevails as an independent democratic state, the best way of achieving that is to provide Ukraine with military support,” he said.

The attack came as NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, urged other countries to step up military support for Ukraine to fight off the Russian invasion, providing more weapons and — perhaps more important, he said — more ammunition for the weapons it already has. While there is likely to be a negotiated peace eventually, he said in an interview with the German news agency DPA , the military picture will determine the strength of Ukraine’s bargaining position .

The latest assault used 16 Iranian-made drones overnight, all of which were shot down, the Ukrainian air force said — a rare shutout, coming a day after Russian forces fired 70 cruise missiles and a smaller number of drones, some of which reached their targets.

For the second day in a row, Russia launched an aerial barrage at Ukraine on Friday, but the Ukrainian military said it had intercepted all of the attacks, as the warring nations wage a lethal struggle of shifting offensive and defensive tactics.

More corruption ahead:

You can hold the position that NATO expansion was a mistake AND also believe that Putin's invasion of Ukraine was unjust. I dont. But it's a legitimate position. Invoking NATO expansion as justification for Putin's barbaric war and illegal annexation of Ukraine is odd & wrong.

Russian President Vladimir Putin opened the door for further institutionalized corruption through the manipulation of the Russian domestic legal sphere. Putin approved a decree on December 29 that exempts all Russian officials, including members of the military and law enforcement services, from the requirement to make income declarations public.[8] The decree extends to military officials, employees of Russian internal affairs organs, those serving in Rosgvardia and law enforcement positions, employees of the Russian penitentiary system and Investigative System, and individuals seconded to positions in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[9] The decree also notably lifts the ban on military officials receiving “charitable” gifts in connection with their participation in hostilities in Ukraine.[10] Russian independent newspaper The Insider noted that this decree could theoretically allow Russian officials involved in the war to seize the private property of Ukrainian residents of occupied areas because such property could be legally classed as “charitable gifts.”[11] ISW continues to report on Putin’s manipulations of domestic law to quash domestic opposition to the war and enable those who support it.[12]

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 30 7-day average of Troops, UAVs, Tanks & APVs rises TODAY'S REPORTED LOSSES: 6x daily changes over 7-day average 4x 7-day average increases + 7-day average of land-based equipment rises as well 📈 https://t.co/gCVJdHkNXg pic.twitter.com/wBgx9L7nua

x Ukraine: Criminal News, The total combat losses of the enemy from 24-02 to 30-12, about 105,250 (+690) persons liquidated,

tanks ‒ 3026 (+8) units,

armored fighting vehicles / APV ‒ 6059 (+12) units,

artillery systems – 2010 (+6) units,

RSZV / MLRS – 423 (+0) units...30-12-2022 pic.twitter.com/BrawtepVDn — Rowan Van Dijk (@Lastkombo) December 30, 2022

x Military Security > Oryx's list of visually confirmed losses shows the modest capability of Russia's armed forces to offer a meaningful response to western arms supplies to Ukraine (incl. upgraded Soviet tech, such as T-72M tanks). https://t.co/Ts5OEWyco4 — Peter Marton | Global Security (@Peter_PM_Marton) December 29, 2022

x Remarkably, this means no CAESARs or Pzh-2000s known as fully lost (one CAESAR is known to have been damaged). No HIMARS lost is noteworthy, too, but bigger range&mobility gives HIMARS better survival prospects. CAESARs and PzH-2000s have to move closer to the line of engagement. — Peter Marton | Global Security (@Peter_PM_Marton) December 29, 2022

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Stelmakhivka, 15km west of Svatove.[13] Russian milbloggers also reported that Russian troops conducted attacks near Stelmakhivka and Dzherelne (10km west of Svatove).[14] A Russian milblogger also claimed that elements of the 76th Airborne Division (VDV) and elements of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District advanced northwest of Kreminna from Ploshchanka (16km northwest of Kreminna) towards Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna).[15] Geolocated footage posted on December 29 additionally shows Russian soldiers on tactically significant heights near Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), where fighting is reportedly ongoing.[16]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on December 30, albeit at a slower pace than over the past few days. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Soledar (10km northeast of Bakhmut), Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[20] The Ukrainian General Staff typically names more settlements around Bakhmut as the targets of Russian attacks in its daily report, and this inflection may indicate that the pace of Russian attacks around Bakhmut is slowing, possibly supporting ISW’s forecast that the Russian offensive around Bakhmut may be culminating.[21] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops took control of certain strongholds near Pidhorodne, 5km northeast of Bakhmut.[22] Geolocated combat footage posted on December 29 shows Wagner Group positions in the Opytnenska Zosh school about 2km south of Bakhmut.[23] Russian milbloggers notably reported that Ukrainian troops launched counterattacks to regain positions south and east of Bakhmut.[24] Geolocated footage from December 29 shows Ukrainian forces conducting a counterattack south of Bakhmut and entering the northwestern sector of Kurdyumivka, about 12km southwest of Bakhmut.[25]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x #Ukraine: The Ukrainian special unit "Kraken" damaged a Russian T-90M tank and destroyed a BTR-80 armored personnel carrier and BMP infantry fighting vehicle in Novoselivske, #Luhansk Oblast. pic.twitter.com/1cq6c4IhQ4 — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) December 30, 2022

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

A Russian source claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast on December 30. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are conducting local offensives on certain sectors of the front in Zaporizhia Oblast.[31] The Russian milblogger claimed that Russian assault detachments broke through the first line of Ukrainian defenses west of Dorozhnianka, Zaporizhia Oblast (8km south of Hulyaipole).[32] The Zaporizhia Oblast Administration reported that Russian forces remain focused on defending their positions in Zaporizhia Oblast, however.[33] ISW has not observed any indicators that Russian forces are preparing for or conducting offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.[34] Russian forces may be conducting limited operations to improve their tactical positions in Zaporizhia Oblast, but such tactical actions do not suggest that Russian forces are preparing for future offensives on the operational level in this section of the frontline.

www.understandingwar.org/...

x To understand the geography of the war in Ukraine, The Times made more than one hundred maps, showed how Kyiv withstood Russia’s attacks, investigated how a Russian military unit killed dozens in Bucha — and more. https://t.co/rRgW6P7zrk pic.twitter.com/h01MC0Tzlw — The New York Times (@nytimes) December 30, 2022

On Thursday, Mr. Zelensky signed off on a law expanding the government’s regulatory power over news media, according to Ukrainian media. It gives the government the power to fine media organizations, revoke their licenses, temporarily block certain online outlets without a court order, and request that social media platforms and search engines remove content that violates the law.

Ukrainian officials have described the law as one step toward meeting the conditions for someday joining the European Union, but Ukrainian journalists and press freedom watchdogs say it goes much further, and voiced concerns that Kyiv is using the E.U. standards as a pretext to seize greater control of the press.

www.nytimes.com/...

x ⚡️Zelensky signs media law criticized by journalist groups as authoritarian.



“The coercive regulation envisaged by the bill... is worthy of the worst authoritarian regimes,” Ricardo Gutierrez, head of the European Federation of Journalists, said.https://t.co/UyO2xwp347 — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 29, 2022

x Analysis: Here are 5 key takeaways on how Ukraine’s counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson reshaped the war and shocked Putin. https://t.co/C53IirFcpx — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) December 29, 2022

x The AFU hit an army level command post in Kheson region.



RU Officers from the 36th CAA, units: 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 75th Control Brigade, 26th NBC Protection Regiment



And from 68th AC: 39th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade https://t.co/cNZf4T6RDF pic.twitter.com/8qvHizQwAK — Def Mon (@DefMon3) December 30, 2022

x The German-supplied IRIS-T air defense system has shown stunning effectiveness.



According to Vitaly Klitschko, the efficiency indicators of IRIS-T, which is on duty in the Kyiv region, are "100 shots - 100 hits." Klitschko stated this in the German magazine Der Spiegel. pic.twitter.com/L3NWyyC6uE — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 30, 2022

x Germany has ended its dependence on Russian energy. Since August 11th, no coal has been imported. Natural gas imports have been reduced from 55% at the beginning of 2022 to zero. Oil imports dropped from 40% to under 20%, and will be phased out by the end of this year. pic.twitter.com/euMy4Amp7X — German Embassy (@GermanyinUSA) December 30, 2022

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/30/2144552/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-311-the-partial-mobilization-achieved-will-there-be-a-new-offensive

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