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Ukraine Invasion Day 310: fighting could be in a deadlock [1]

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Date: 2022-12-29

Russia launched more than 120 missiles overnight damaging critical infrastructure during freezing winter weather. Ukrainian officials say most of them were shot down, but there were explosions in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv and Odesa. @paraicobrien reports. https://t.co/Tj0CcJcOdP

Ukrainian air defense forces have shot down more than 420 missiles and 430 kamikaze drones since September.

According to Ukrinform, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said this on Ukraine's television

"Everyone took the date of October 10, from the first massive missile attack, as the beginning of the countdown of attacks on the energy infrastructure. But in fact, they hit the Kharkiv thermal power station back on September 11. At that time, they began to attack our critical infrastructure. Since then, our air defense forces have shot down approximately more than 420 missiles and 430 kamikaze drones. Of course, a larger number attacked [Ukrainian infrastructure]," Ihnat said.

www.ukrinform.net/...

x Cruise missiles over Kyiv region. In total around 65 are now shot down already. pic.twitter.com/wYiE7icyyd — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 29, 2022

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on December 29. Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, reported that Ukrainian forces have advanced 2.5km in the direction of Kreminna over the past week and are continuing offensive actions towards the settlement.[28] Hromov stated that information is circulating among officers of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps that a significant part of the 2nd Army Corps will surrender if Ukrainian forces break through the Svatove-Kreminna line.[29] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian forces may capture Kreminna by the beginning of 2023.[30] A Russian milblogger claimed that 1,500 Ukrainian servicemen are currently trying to break through Russian positions near Kreminna from the direction of Torske (14km west of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna).[31]

Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults northwest of Svatove near Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove) and Andriivka (16km west of Svatove) and northwest of Kreminna near Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna) and Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna).[32] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are probing Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Hryhorivka (11km south of Kreminna).[33] Haidai reported that Russian forces are continuing to transfer more equipment and personnel to the Kreminna area, including a substantial number of Wagner Group personnel.[34] ISW assesses that Russian forces are likely preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast, although it is still unclear whether this decisive effort is offensive or defensive.[35]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on December 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut; within 21km northeast of Bakhmut near Bilohorivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Pidhorodne; and within 13km south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka.[36] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces withdrew from unspecified strongholds in Soledar and in Pidhorodne, where elements of the Wagner Group are attempting to cut off a section of the M-03 highway.[37] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces made notable advances in the southern parts of Bakhmut, although ISW cannot independently verify whether Russian forces have actually done so.[38] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also conducted assaults south of Bakhmut near Opytne.[39]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued defensive operations in Kherson Oblast on December 29. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces in the Kherson direction are regrouping, reinforcing, and conducting positional defenses.[47] The Head of the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavrisk Direction Defense Forces, Yevhen Yerin, stated that small Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups try to cross the Dnipro River on a daily basis and that Ukrainian forces are detecting and neutralizing the groups.[48] Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, noted that mobilized Russian forces are deploying to Kherson Oblast so that conventional combat units can withdraw to the rear and presumably refit for further redeployment.[49] Hromov also stated that Russian forces are deploying "territorial troops” to the Kherson Oblast frontline to assist with the redeployment effort.[50] Russian forces continued routine shelling of the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast and struck the Kherson Oblast Cardiology Dispensary in Kherson City.[51] Residents of Oleshky (just south of Kherson City on the east bank of the Dnipro River) reported shelling in the settlement on both December 28 and 29, and the Ukrainian General Staff and other Ukrainian sources claimed that Russian forces shelled Oleshky.[52] Russian sources accused Ukrainian troops of striking Oleshky.[53] ISW has not observed any visual confirmation of Ukrainian forces in Oleshky, and it is unclear why Russian troops would shell territory they control. Geolocated footage from December 28 shows a Ukrainian drone striking a Russian ammunition truck near Oleshky, indicating that Ukrainian forces have recently targeted Russian positions in Oleshky.[54]

www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/29/2144387/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-310-fighting-could-be-in-a-deadlock

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