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Ukraine Invasion Day 307: February peace summit proposed, but contingent on war crimes trials [1]

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Date: 2022-12-26

Ukraine announced that it is open to a February peace summit at the United Nations with a stipulation that war crimes trials will happen. Branko Milanovic has one compelling explanation for the current war that has at least four possible hypotheses, some of which explain the persistence of oligarchic corruption and nationalist stupidity in the current war.

Thus to get a better understanding of the current war it is important to go back into history. What we observe today is caused by two factors: first, the unsuccessful economic development of the formerly communist countries, and second, the structural political setup that enabled republican elites to cover-up the economic failure by defending the nationalist interests of their constituents. The latter was both an easy solution, and was permitted by the way the regime was organized. If one argued for the return to capitalism, he was likely to end up dismissed from his job, or in jail. But if one argued that his republic was unequally treated, he was likely to climb up the ladders of power. Legitimation of the national interest as such provided then for the legitimation of nationalist ideologies and ultimately for the desire for national independence, and the wave of nationalism that motivated and followed the revolutions in 1989. The moving force of these revolutions was the same in both ethnically homogeneous and ethically heterogeneous countries: it was nationalism. But nationalism in the first group of countries coalesced with democracy, and nationalism in the latter group of countries, because of unresolved territorial issues, led to wars. Russia was slow to move to a strong nationalist posture, and its reaction can be seen as delayed. But because of its size, large population and enormous military, it represents a much greater threat to peace once nationalism is dominant. For obviously a very small state with the same nationalist ideology is much less of a threat to the world peace than a state with 6,000 nuclear missiles. Without seeing that the roots of the current conflict are historical and are lodged in the initial setup of communist federations and in the economic failure of the communist model of development, we are unlikely to understand the current conflict, all the unresolved one, and possibly even those that may yet come. branko2f7.substack.com/…

x Ukraine's foreign minister said that his government is aiming to have a peace summit by the end of February, preferably at the United Nations with Secretary-General António Guterres as a possible mediator, around the time of the anniversary of Russia's war.https://t.co/Ryn5gVLu9f — The Post and Courier (@postandcourier) December 27, 2022

Ukraine is aiming to hold a peace summit by the end of February – preferably at the United Nations with its secretary general, António Guterres, as a possible mediator – according to its foreign minister. But Dmytro Kuleba said that Russia could only be invited if the country faced a war crimes tribunal first. visit to the US last week, and he revealed that the US government had made a special plan to get the , which can shoot down enemy missiles, ready to be operational in the country in less than six months. Usually, the training takes up to a year. Kuleba also said he was “absolutely satisfied” with the results of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’slast week, and he revealed that the US government had made a special plan to get the Patriot air defence system , which can shoot down enemy missiles, ready to be operational in the country in less than six months. Usually, the training takes up to a year. Ukraine will do whatever it can to win the war in 2023, adding that diplomacy always plays an important role. Kuleba said during the interview at the foreign ministry thatwill do whatever it can to win the war in 2023, adding that diplomacy always plays an important role. Every war ends in a diplomatic way,” he said. “Every war ends as a result of the actions taken on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.” Kuleba said the Ukrainian government would like to have a peace summit by the end of February, around the anniversary of Russia’s invasion. “The United Nations could be the best venue for holding this summit, because this is not about making a favour to a certain country,” he said. “This is really about bringing everyone on board.” On 12 December, Zelenskiy said that Ukraine planned to initiate a summit to implement the Ukrainian peace formula in 2023. At the Group of 20 summit in Bali in November, Zelenskiy presented a 10-point peace formula that included the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression and security guarantees for Ukraine. Asked about whether they would invite Russia to the summit, the foreign minister said that Moscow would first need to face prosecution for war crimes at an international court. “They can only be invited to this step in this way,” Kuleba said. www.theguardian.com/…

x Ukraine’s strikes on bases deep inside Russia reflect a view that Moscow’s threats of retaliatory escalation are hollow. https://t.co/6c6024H1Fe — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) December 27, 2022 Russia’s FSB security service said a Ukrainian “sabotage group” was “liquidated” while trying to enter the Bryansk region on Sunday, Russian state media reported. The alleged saboteurs were armed with foreign-made guns and four improvised explosive devices, the FSB said. There was no immediate comment on the incident from Ukraine.

Russian forces launched more than 40 rocket attacks on Ukraine on Sunday, according to Ukraine’s military. Dozens of towns in the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia were shelled in the previous 24 hours, Ukraine’s military said in an update early on Monday.

Vladimir Putin has said the west is trying to “tear apart” Russia and claimed his offensive in Ukraine aims to “unite the Russian people”. In an interview aired on national TV, Putin said Russia’s “geopolitical opponents [were] aiming to tear apart Russia, the historical Russia … Divide and conquer, that’s what they have always sought to accomplish and are still seeking to do. But our goal is different: it’s to unite the Russian people”.

Putin claimed Russia was ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine , while accusing Kyiv and its western allies of “refusing” to negotiate. Kyiv and its allies suspect Putin’s claims are a ploy to buy time after a series of Russian defeats and retreats on the battlefield.

The Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Putin “needs to come back to reality” after the Russian leader claimed Moscow was ready for negotiations. It is “obvious” that Russia “doesn’t want negotiations, but tries to avoid responsibility”, Podolyak tweeted.

Russians troops are working “around the clock” at new anti-aircraft missile system positions to defend against missile and airstrikes by Ukraine, the Russian Interfax reported late on Sunday, citing the defence ministry. Crews of the S-300V systems were “mastering new position areas” of the Russian long range surface-to-air missile systems, the news agency reported.

Russian troops have focused mainly on constructing defensive positions along many sections of the frontline in Ukraine since October , the UK’s Ministry of Defence said. This includes laying additional fields of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, it said in its latest intelligence update, which would “almost certainly [be] going beyond Russian doctrinal guidelines”.

Russian-supplied Iskander tactical missile systems, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and S-400 air defence systems have been deployed to Belarus and are prepared to perform their intended tasks, a senior Belarusian defence ministry official has said. It is not clear how many of the Iskander systems have been deployed to Belarus but it follows Putin’s visit to Minsk on 19 December amid concerns in Ukraine that he would pressure Belarus to join a fresh ground offensive and open a new front.

Ukraine’s state power grid operator, Ukrenergo, says it introduced emergency shutdowns in multiple regions across the country, including the capital, Kyiv, due to an excess of energy consumption. Repair work is ongoing at generating facilities, and several power grids have been damaged due to nine mass Russian attacks, it said in a statement. www.theguardian.com/...

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