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Ukraine Invasion Day 306: no one is actually prepared to negotiate [1]

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Date: 2022-12-25

People in Kherson waiting in lines to donate blood for victims of Dec. 24 attack on central market. Christmas 2022. I am crying. Took this photo from Kherson's governor account. pic.twitter.com/aYdaIDcSP1

Vladimir Putin said that Russia is “prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process.”

The Netherlands has pledged €2.5bn ($2.7bn) to help Ukraine in 2023, with most of the money earmarked for military aid.

A Ukrainian official has called for Iranian drone and missile factories to be destroyed because of their use by Russia in the war. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Iran “blatantly humiliates the institution of international sanctions”.

Ukraine has announced it has killed another 480 Russian troops, according to its latest casualty figures.

Reuters reporters in the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol have confirmed that authorities are demolishing and clearing what is left of the smashed rear portion of the cities theatre, where hundreds of Ukrainians were killed in Russian airstrikes after a protracted siege earlier this year.

In a message on Saturday, Zelenskiy said Ukrainians will create their own miracle this Christmas by showing they remain unbowed despite Russian attacks that have plunged millions into darkness. The president made his remarks in a video address to Ukrainians who celebrate Christmas in December. Most Ukrainians are Orthodox Christians and mark the occasion in early January.

Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said the attack in Kherson is more evidence that Ukraine needs to be supplied with more defence systems and called for more weapons and ammunition.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the attacks on Kherson “terror … killing for the sake of intimidation and pleasure”. He said: “it is the real life of Ukraine … The world must see and understand what absolute evil we are fighting against.”

At least ten people were killed and an estimated 58 wounded on Saturday in Russian shelling on the recently recaptured Ukrainian city of Kherson. The region was targeted by 74 Russian strikes. 66 cars caught fire in a residential area of the city due to the shelling, the emergency services said.

x ⚡️ Volunteers from Belarus fighting Ukraine announced the creation of the Belarusian Volunteer Corps, the purpose of which is the complete liberation from the occupation of Ukraine and Belarus. pic.twitter.com/crHimzDIpg — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) December 25, 2022

x The monitoring group "Belarusian Gayun" has information that today, on December 25, at the airfield in Machulishchi, an engine of one of the MiG-31Ks of the Russian Aerospace Forces caught fire.



It is disabled and will not be able to fly anytime soon. — KT "Special NATO Ops"@[email protected] (@KremlinTrolls) December 25, 2022

x #UkraineWar: Overview of Ukrainian equipment losses added on 25/12/2022



Full list: https://t.co/AzdF734TT6 pic.twitter.com/ncnUoooMvy — Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) December 25, 2022

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 25



7-day average of Troops, APVs & Vehicles rises



TODAY'S REPORTED LOSSES:

3x daily changes over 7-day average

3x 7-day average increases



+ 7-day average of land-based equipment rises as well



📈 https://t.co/0mCyggSaop pic.twitter.com/EJOAIn6lBY — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) December 25, 2022

Soldiers of 46th Airmobile Brigade engaging Russian troops in, or in the close vicinity of #Bakhmut.

x The formerly Russian T-90 tank captured earlier in Sumy Oblast by farmers is defending Bakhmut now in the ranks of the Ukrainian army.



📷https://t.co/WNYRSDU8nU pic.twitter.com/J63jAhYI89 — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) December 25, 2022

x 🇺🇦 @AndriyYermak, head of Ukraine’s Office of the President, writes:



“The democratic world cannot afford to lose this war. If Russian dictator Vladimir Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he will inevitably wage further wars of aggression.”



Read more: ⤵️https://t.co/zS7iSMSe9V — Atlantic Council (@AtlanticCouncil) December 25, 2022

This is an important sign:

x #Ukraine: The first video showing a German-donated Biber armored bridgelayer 🇩🇪 in use with the Ukrainian army - this particular one apparently already put a bridge in place, hence sections are missing.

Ukraine already received 3 of these with 13 more to be delivered soon. pic.twitter.com/yWI8e53VTM — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) December 25, 2022

x Seen lots of interesting discussions on the pros and cons of A10 in Ukraine, not convinced myself, but if requested, why not pic.twitter.com/KvEZiErhQQ — Think Defence (@thinkdefence) December 25, 2022

x After all, Su25s are not doing gunruns in Ukraine. So "gun run" aircraft focus is not a factor in the 'needs' here. PGMs, ability to dodge SAMs/use EW and counter air are much higher priorities than a form of CAS which doesn't exist in Ukraine right now. — Retro_Sicotte (@Retro_Sicotte) December 26, 2022

x Russia has set up rings of defenses around Tokmak (shown) and as well as around Melitopol. The fact that Russia is doing so suggests it might be expecting to lose almost all the territory west of the area in Kherson. #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #UkraineRussiaWar️ #UkraineUnderAttack https://t.co/STKajOJELE pic.twitter.com/mdEQFOOMRz — raging545 (@raging545) December 25, 2022

x Camera is here 51.4944734, 46.1730866 (Ulitsa Marshala Vasilevskogo A. M., 67) — Iron Logic (@iron_logic_7) December 25, 2022

x How Russians encourage their subordinates to fight.



What could possibly go wrong? #Ukraine https://t.co/nTAJzQSMGM — KT "Special NATO Ops"@[email protected] (@KremlinTrolls) December 25, 2022

"Russian President Vladimir Putin, a man who relaxes by putting kittens into a food processor, has long wanted to establish closer ties with Ukraine, in the same sense that a grizzly bear wants to establish closer ties with a salmon."

x Ok. Deep breath.



I think we may look back on this as the first Great Information War. Except we're already 8 years in.



The first Great Information War began in 2014. The invasion of Ukraine is the latest front. And the idea it doesn't already involve us is fiction, a lie.

1/ — Carole Cadwalladr (@carolecadwalla) February 27, 2022

It was Putin's fury at the removal of President Yankovych in Feb 2014 that kicked everything off. Information operations were first crucial step in invasion of Crimea & Donbass. A deliberate attempt to warp reality to confuse both Ukrainians & the world.

2/

This was not new. The Soviets had practiced "dezinformatsiya" for years. But what was new in 2014 was technology. Social media. It was a transformative moment. "Hybrid warfare" on steroids: a golden Willy Wonka ticket to manipulate hearts & minds. Almost completely invisibly.

3/

But it wasn't just Ukraine. We now know Russia began another offensive in Feb 2014. Against the West. Specifically, but not exclusively, America. How do we know this? Because the FBI conducted a forensic, multi-year investigation. That almost no-one paid any attention to.

4/

The Mueller Report. You've heard of it. But probably as a headline about how it didn't "prove" collusion between the Kremlin & Trump campaign. We can come back to that. What it did prove - BEYOND ANY DOUBT - was that Russia attacked 2016 US election through multiple routes.

5/

And just *one* of the ways Russia attacked 2016 US election was via the tech platforms. Especially: Facebook. This was a military technique, it pioneered in Ukraine in 2014. By 2016, it refined, iterated & supersized these. Most brilliantly of all, they were entirely invisible

6/

And it wasn't just Russia. Companies such as Cambridge Analytica. Political operatives such as Manafort. Amoral opportunists such as Cummings. They learned how to exploit a platform that was totally open - anyone could do so. And totally closed - no-one could see how.

7/

's thread here. Note walk-on role for Arron Banks's business partner & his friend the Russian spy)

8/ Unroll available on Thread Reader In 2016, we knew none of this. Russia & other bad actors acted with impunity &, in some cases alignment. But now, through the sheer bloody hard work of academics, journalists & FBI, we do know.

But it was complex, messy, difficult. So..We brushed it all under the carpet

9/ But also it *was* Russia. That's what the Mueller Report proves. And, again, Ukraine is at centre of it all.(Read @profshaw 's thread here. Note walk-on role for Arron Banks's business partner & his friend the Russian spy)

We failed to acknowledge Russia had staged a military attack on the West. We called it "meddling". We used words like "interference". It wasn't. It was warfare. We've been under military attack for eight years now.

10/

This failure is at the heart of what is happening now in Ukraine. Because the first offensive in the Great Information War was from 2014-2022. And Putin won.

And he won by convincing us it wasn't even a war.

11/

We fell for it. We said it was "just ads" that "don't work anyhow". And "a bot didn't tell me to vote". Facebook is still an open threat surface. Exploited by authoritarians from Philippines to India to Brazil to Hungary. It's maybe not a world war. But the world is at war.

12/

Meanwhile, in Britain, we're a captured state. In America, the institutions of govt worked. Even in spite of Trump. The authorities investigated. Individuals were indicted, charged, jailed. The hostile actions of a foreign state examined & unpicked.

13/

(Not that it mattered.) The US media & therefore public failed to understand the real lessons of Mueller Report. And in the UK? We didn't even bother trying. We allowed Johnson's govt to sweep 2016 under the carpet. Nigel Farage. Arron Banks. Facebook. Russia. The lot.

14/

But it wasn't 'just ads'. It was war. And it's absolutely crucial that we now understand that Putin's attack on Ukraine & the West was a JOINT attack on both.

That began at the exact same time.

Across the exact same platforms.

15/

And this new front, the invasion of Ukraine, is not just about Ukraine. We are part of the plan. We have always been part of the plan. And Ukraine is not just fighting for Ukraine but for the rest of us too.

16/

And maybe that could be why we've failed to understand Putin's strategy in Ukraine? Because it's not just a strategy in Ukraine. It's directed at us too. And that's what makes this such a uniquely perilous moment. Not least, because we still don't understand we're at war.

17/

If it helps, the penny dropped for me with Skripal. Planned by the GRU - Russia's military intelligence. As was the weaponised hack-&-leak of Hillary's emails. Military doctrine carried out by military officials in military operations. Just like the one now in Ukraine.

18/

• • •

x BBC Photo of the Year: “Ukrainian soldiers play checkers with Molotov cocktails.”

The photo was included in the list of 14 most striking photos of the year according to the publication.#UkraineFrontLines #RussiaUkraineWar pic.twitter.com/t6laaq5R2K — Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) December 25, 2022

[END]
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