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I’m Worried about the War in Ukraine [1]

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Date: 2022-12-25

Patriot missile system.

In October, 30 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, including local representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jamaal Bowman, Yvette Clarke, Mondaire Jones, and Nydia Velázquez sent President Biden a letter backing American military support for Ukraine but urging the President to push for a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

Democratic Party leaders immediately denounced the Progressive Caucus. It was accused of siding with rightwing Republicans who want the United States to withdraw from global alliances and responsibilities. The next day, the caucus retracted the letter and spokespeople for the group claimed it was sent in error. Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD), who signed the letter, released a statement that he was “glad” it was withdrawn because of “unfortunate timing and other flaws.” Raskin, a leading figure in the Congressional January 6th probe, added that he “passionately supported every package of military, strategic and economic assistance to the Ukrainian people.”

I am sorry the letter was withdrawn because I have deep worries about what will happen in Ukraine over the next few months. I also want to stress that I don’t have a solution for ending the war, just worries.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its attack on civilians is unconscionable, but so is U.S. treatment of Cuba and Venezuela. In 1962, the United States nearly went to war with the Soviet Union to block the armament of a Soviet ally on the U.S. southern flank. Since 1980, the U.S. has conducted military operations (invasions) in Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Haiti, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria to protect American interests. The United States still maintains crushing boycotts on Cuba and Venezuela that bankrupt both countries and impoverish millions of people.

Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and invaded Ukraine last year to block NATO expansion on its border and to secure a more friendly Ukrainian government. The United States has repeatedly pursued similar policies in the Caribbean and Latin America. I can’t image Russia backing down now after almost a year of costly military action against a Ukrainian military armed and trained by the United States and NATO and I am very worried about escalation in the next few months.

It became clear during the recent visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the United States that the United States and Ukraine have different goals. In a press conference with President Biden, Zelenskyy responded to a reporter’s question: “You know, for all of us, peace — just peace is different. For me, as the President, just peace is no compromises as to the sovereignty, freedom, and territorial integrity of my country, the payback for all the damages inflicted by Russian aggression.” The return of all territory, which would include Crimea, and reparations payments by Russia, is not going to happen, and essentially means no negotiations will take place. Zelenskyy also pressed the Biden Administration, which has already pledged $50 billion in new military aid and other assistance for 2023, for offensive weapons including battle tanks, fighter jets, and long-range missiles, that would allow Ukrainian forces to attack Russia. So far the U.S. has refused to acquiesce to the demand, but the Biden administration did agree to provide Ukraine with the advanced Patriot ground-to-air missile system.

The Ukraine military has been able to push back Russian forces and retake territory that Russia seized using American intelligence reports to identify where the Russian Army is weakest. This allowed the Ukrainian military to capture the strategic city of Kharkiv in September. Russia is fighting a proxy war against the United States and NATO. At what point will it risk expanding the conflict, something the United States and its European allies do not want.

After disastrous military adventures in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the United States should have learned that you don’t go to war unless you have an end-game strategy, what you want to achieve and how the conflict will end. Each of those wars lasted for more than a decade. In Ukraine, Zelenskyy has an unachievable strategy and right now it is not clear whether Russia or the United States and NATO have any sense of how this is going to end. I don’t believe the Russian military is going to oust Vladimir Putin or that Putin will have a change of heart and Russia will surrender.

Even if the war does not escalate or just continues, there is another issue of grave concern. In his 1961 “Farewell Address,” President Dwight Eisenhower, the General who led the successful defeat of Nazi Germany during World War II, warned against the establishment of a “military-industrial complex” and it threat to world peace and democracy in the United States. Eisenhower argued “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a financial bonanza for U.S. weapons manufacturers and I am very suspicious of their role in this fiasco. The United States’ gigantic military expenditure in 2021 was $782 billion, almost 40% of total global military expenditures. When the Defense Department spent more than $2.6 billion between May and October of 2022 to replenish weapons sent to Ukraine, the biggest beneficiaries of the war were Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies. Lockheed Martin spends approximately $7 million a year on campaign contributions to elected officials and another $13 million a year on lobbying for more military spending, while Raytheon made $3.5 million in campaign contributions in 2020. With the war waging in Ukraine, Lockheed Martin stock rose by 40% in 2022 and Raytheon by 20%. U.S. military analysts predict the war in Ukraine will remain stalemated in 2023 so the U.S. will continue to ship weapons to Ukraine and these companies and other military contractors will continue to rake in mega-dollars.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/25/2143789/-I-m-Worried-about-the-War-in-Ukraine

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