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In defense of Putin [1]

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Date: 2022-12-23

Self explanatory.

No one in his right mind can argue that Putin’s WAR (I guess he has given us his permission to use this this word now?) should be allowed to succeed by any measure. His aggression deserves to be punished hard. His greed has torn down Ukraine and Russia alike. But before we get ahead of ourselves and call for his head, we should probably take a step back and think of its possible outcomes. And before that, we perhaps need to understand what brought us here in the first place.

Understanding Putin has always been hard, in part because of the secrecy surrounding his inner core in the Kremlin. Perhaps he always had the dream of occupying Ukraine concealed in his head? Perhaps it was the 8 year proxy war for the Donbas with Ukraine which got on to his nerves. Perhaps it was the desertification of Crimea by Ukraine’s damming of Dnieper that pushed him over the edge. But one thing for sure: the true reason has nothing to do with his claim of “wanting to keep NATO away” from his borders; this was just a lame pretext to justify the war.

To begin with, please bear with me while I present an errie sequence of events which are NOT a mere coincidence; they are totally related to what we are seeing in Russia.

Iran had a democratically elected government. But they dared defy the western oil interests. So their democracy was overthrown by NATO. Next, Iraq had oil too. After when their leader grew unworthy of patronage, we found non-existent chemical weapons in his backyard and he was deposed. Then Libya. It is believed that Gaddafi was close to Putin. Putin “wasn’t his usual self” for weeks or even months after the way Gaddafi was hacked to death. His outrage was quite public. And finally, Afghanistan. This time it wasn’t oil, but trillions in natural minerals ripe for exploiting. Many Afghan warlords, who had CHILD sex slaves, were supported by the US, and effectively bribed by US commanders that enabled their opium trade. Any wonder why the Afghanis decided that Taliban was better for them? On the other hand, 9/11 attacks were actually almost completely funded and carried out from Saudi Arabia. But hey, they are in good terms with the American oil inc. So shush.



Now how is all this related to Russia’s war? Well, very directly. In 2012, HUGE oil reserves were discovered around Crimea. Suddenly in 2014, Putin remembered how his country is so incomplete without that peninsula. Then somehow by luck, yet more huge oil and gas reserves were discovered behind Kharkiv. Thats how Putin began to become fond of the Donbas region too. And oh, giant reserves were then also discovered behind Lviv. Now thats way on the western side of Ukraine… hard to reach. So thats when Putin started to read history books and remember how Ukrainians and Russians had an immutable blood bond and needed to become whole again.

Russia has insane amounts of oil. One would think they wouldn’t feel threatened by some recent discoveries in Ukraine. But there are two reasons that coaxed Putin into his failed war. First, it was not about oil production or export, but rather, it was all about oil control. A west-leaning Ukraine with oil would be in a scary position to undercut Russian prices. This was unacceptable. As long as Ukraine had a pro-Russian govt that knelt before Putin and abided by the rules of the Russian oil inc., it was borderline okay for him. But the people of Ukraine were not having it, and they revolted. So they had to be reminded of their Russian culture.

Secondly, Putin thought that Ukraine was weak. He could sweep in and it would all be over in three days. In fact, Putin thought he would actually be SAVING lives by doing this. Because the extended war at Donbas, already raging for 8 years now, was going to cause a greater loss of lives over years (or even decades) than a quick one-week takeover of Kyiv was going to cause. Plus, he would be saving Crimea from ecological devastation in the process, enabling a beautiful holiday resort for Russians that would be his legacy forever.

Now keeping all the above in mind, would I categorize Putin as inherently evil? No, although I would definitely count him as a corrupt, inept, short-sighted ghoul. But the same goes for many (most) other politicians in the Washington.

Now coming to the most crucial part of the puzzle. Where do we go from here? One might be tempted to think that this war was begun by Putin, so it ends with him. They couldn’t be more wrong. Russia is an incredibly unstable country. To make things worse, its dependence on oil is central to its existence. This has resulted in a political system that actually makes Putin appear as one of the sanest voices in there. The next leader of Russia is pretty much guaranteed to be worse than Putin in every possible way you can think of. And all this assumes that Russia would actually still exist. What if it breaks up?

A divided Russia mired in chaos and civil war isn’t a nightmare of Putin alone. Its also a nightmare for the west and the entire world. It would likely send the global economy back by decades. Local factions without well defined borders would be at perennial war with each other, which would then spill over to its neighbors all around. The only country that could possibly end up being a beneficiary of this mess in the long run is China. In fact, China stands to benefit either way. Russia will, post battle, either become increasingly reliant on it, or if it breaks, the little Russling states would be ripe for it to meddle with. Xi must be so glad. He poses to be an ally of Russia of course, but both he and Putin know well that he isn’t really rooting for it. In fact, he has bailed out of offering support already, under the pretext of wanting stability.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/23/2143577/-In-defense-of-Putin

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