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A WAY FORWARD ON UKRAINE [1]

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Date: 2022-12-23

Everyone who realizes the brutality Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine currently cheers as his army is turned back by Ukraine’s.

However, most have not spoke of how slippery the situation is for international peace,except writer Vladslav Zubok in his story “The West Must Avoid the Mistakes of World War I” and Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs Mike Miley. Zubok pointed out how Miley’s advice sent shock waves through capitals when he stated the war was not winnable by military means. General Miley said that Ukraine was in a position of strength and that the West might want to consider peace talks with Russia.

Mr. Miley stated an important fact, complete victory would mean a very long war and the duration would amount to factors beyond the West’s control. Our side would have to continue to supply Ukraine weapons until Russia retreats back into its borders, meaning it must also leave the Donbas and Crimea. Zubok stated the realities: “a grinding war of attrition has already been hugely damaging for the West, as well as for Russia.Over six million Ukrainians have been forced to flee, the Ukrainian economy is in free fall, and the widespread destruction of the country’s energy infrastructure threatens a humanitarian catastrophe this winter. Even now, Kyiv is on financial life support,maintaining its operations only through billions of dollars of aid from the United States and Europe. The costs of energy in Europe have risen dramatically because of the disruption of usual oil and gas flows.”

At this point, some fear that the Russians will concentrate on regrouping and continuing the war later. The best possible scenario would be for the Russians to go back to their pre-invasion borders. Zubok pointed out that what’s currently missing is a plan to end the suffering and make sure the Russians won’t begin a new war at some time in the future. This will require that the Russians accept defeat and the Ukrainians accept that total victory might not be possible. The West must find a way to rid Russia of its pariah status and also find a way to integrate into Europe while giving Ukraine a security guarantee.

Zubock points out a possible future if we don’t find a diplomatic path forward: “the West must formulate a major policy vision that obviates the desire of Ukraine and its staunchest supporters to have Russia smashed and neutralized. If the United States and its partners fail to lay out such a plan, the chances for Milley’s scenario will grow: a war of attrition, the danger of escalation and catastrophe,and a troubled aftermath to the war.” He also points to a point in history and ties it to our current age – President Woodrow Wilson’s 14 points which convinced Germany it would be dealt with fairly. The weakness of Germany’s military and political leaders instilled a certain amount of confidence, as the populace didn’t want to see their country annihilated and its military destroyed. The West must be willing to offer the Russian public and governing class a path to end their isolation, have sanctions removed, and have their pariah status removed.

This map should begin by explaining the risks of continuing the war. It should make clear that Russia cannot win. Ukraine’s Western-supplied military equipment is superior and its forces are determined. If Moscow keeps fighting, it will therefore sustain more defeats and casualties and place itself in increasing danger of calamitous and violent collapse. Russia’s future, the plan must gently explain, will be one of economic degradation; it risks becoming a weakened dependent of China. By accepting that it must end the war, the Russian government will spare itself the humiliation of a larger unravelling. The West should make clear the advantages of stopping the war. There should be a plan to respect Russia’s sovereignty if the war were to end, and a framework other than the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should be used to integrate Russia into Europe’s security.

The West must return to former Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s vision of “a common European home” marked by rapprochement instead of deterrence, something dismissed by the West and Russia. Zubock said: “we must also affirm that Western governments will recognize and respect Russia’s leadership, provided that Moscow rigorously obeys the United Nations Charter and international law, as well as honors Russia’s international treaties, agreements, and commitments. Third, the West should lay out a timetable for returning Russia’s frozen financial assets after demands for demilitarization and withdrawal are met. Finally, the map must declare that, after the end of the war, all international economic obstacles will be removed.”

The creativity of the world’s diplomats will be tested in the years to come. We started this story with a mention of World War I. The war toppled empires across the globe and brought Communism to Russia which laid the seeds of the Cold War. It also laid the seeds of World War II. Hopefully, we can learn from the past.

Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project in St. Louis

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/23/2143482/-A-WAY-FORWARD-ON-UKRAINE

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