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Ukraine Invasion Day 302: 'Alive & Kicking' [1]

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Date: 2022-12-21

For his DC speech, President Zelenskyy, while comparing the struggle to the Battle of the Bulge in 1944, more important was comparing the fight to the Battle of Saratoga, a revolutionary battle won in 1777 with allied resources and tactical precision.

Sending a Patriot Missile System Is "Not Escalatory, It Is Defensive"

x A map showing possible air defense coverage with all the systems that Ukraine 🇺🇦 is expected to receive

8 NASAMS 🔵

6 HAWK 🔴

4 IRIS-T 🟢

1 Patriot and 1 SAMP/T 🟠 pic.twitter.com/4xvyA88WX6 — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) December 20, 2022





Key Takeaways Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu proposed a series of expansive reforms and goals for Russian force generation that Russia is highly unlikely to complete in time to be relevant to the current conflict.

Putin and Shoigu reiterated maximalist Russian aims for the war in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has intensified efforts to make peace with the critical pro-war nationalist community. Russian failures to achieve Putin’s stated goals jeopardize Kremlin efforts to regain control over the domestic narrative and to set conditions for the second year of the war.

Russian nuclear rhetoric is most likely an attempt to appease domestic audiences and intimidate Western audiences and not an indicator of preparation to use nuclear weapons.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Washington, DC on December 21. ISW will report on the details of Zelensky’s visit and Russian reactions to the visit on December 22.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Donetsk City areas.

A Ukrainian official confirmed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to establish control over the Dnipro delta islands.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu boasted about the growing Russian Young Army Cadets National Movement (Yunarmia) movement.

Russian officials intensified law enforcement crackdowns to deter partisan activities and target partisan sympathizers. www.understandingwar.org/...

x Reporter: Can we cut the long story short, and give Ukraine the long range weapons it needs to liberate territories?



Biden: His answer is yes



Zelensky: I agree



Great atmosphere in the room. — Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) December 21, 2022

While Zelensky has made visits to the front lines within his own country—including a recent visit to the Bakhmut battlefield—his trips outside of the country have been curtailed because he remains a high-profile target for assassination by Russia and its allies.

[...]

While it is unclear where he departed from on Wednesday, Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news outlet, reported earlier in the day that he traveled by train to Poland before boarding a transcontinental flight to Andrews Air Force Base just outside Washington, D.C. The largest airport close to Kyiv is in the city of Lublin, Poland, which has rail service to Kyiv as well as direct commercial flights to London.

"A bit nervous. First time since the beginning of the war my President goes for a trip not by train," Alexander Kamyshin, the CEO of the country's state-owned rail system, wrote on Twitter. "Actually by train, but also not by train. Forgot the name for that transport vehicle that flies. Nervous."

www.newsweek.com/...

x Zelensky will reportedly discuss a “peace formula” he told Biden about and express Kyiv’s willingness to have a peace summit “of some sort” — THIS WINTER. https://t.co/KFnpZFdgzk — Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) December 21, 2022

That this trip happened at all, and on the terms which the two leaders sought, makes it a success. Zelenskyy elevated his stature and won a reaffirmation of support from his most vital ally. He received a bipartisan commitment for new weapons systems and a massive new tranche of aid. He sent a message to those who might be inclined to cut back on aid to Ukraine in the future that they are in the clear minority. (Which is a good thing for the U.S., given that those Ukraine-skeptics on the right are actually giving aid and comfort to Russian enemies of the Western Alliance and the values it seeks to defend.)

https://t.co/OzhNLmChjy

Negotiations, ceasefires, and peace deals are not off-ramps but rather on-ramps for the Kremlin to renew its attack on Ukraine in the future under conditions that advantage Russia. They are means to the same ends—full control of Ukraine and eradication of Ukraine’s statehood and identity.

The vital US interest in preventing future Russian attacks on Ukraine can be best achieved by denying Russia the capability to carry out those attacks. The immediate requirement is preserving Ukraine’s momentum on the battlefield—accounting for a possible renewed offensive from Russia this winter—to ensure that Ukraine secures the most advantageous position possible. The West should also eliminate Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine in the future, including by denying Russia a military foothold in Ukraine from which to launch attacks, resisting "peace" deals that the Kremlin will use to buy time to reconstitute its forces, not empowering the Russian defense industrial complex with access to Western markets, and committing to building Ukraine's defensive capabilities over the long term.

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Today before dawn in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region of #Ukraine, Russian air defense with a Pantsir-S1 missile system shot down their own Russian attack helicopter Ka-52 Alligator. Cost $13.7 million. (Morning photo) pic.twitter.com/8imQhsCcMN — Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) December 21, 2022

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks to recapture lost territory along the Kreminna-Svatove line on December 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast (50km northwest of Svatove) and Pidkyuchansk, Luhansk Oblast (8km northwest of Svatove).[33] A Russian milblogger claimed that the capture of Masyutivka is a prerequisite for a Russian advance towards Kupyansk from the northeast.[34] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted an assault near Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove) and Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna).[35] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna) and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[36]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x 20 December 2022

Bohorodychne, #Donetsk Oblast, #Ukraine



Further previously undocumented Russian losses from Bohorodychne:



A destroyed T-80BV, destroyed BMP-2 at 49.02402, 37.49947, and a second destroyed BMP-2.



All photos by Sameer Al-Doumy, AFP.



h/t https://t.co/knGlNawYAS pic.twitter.com/MoGEzZrCRc — Naalsio (@naalsio26) December 22, 2022

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on December 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut and within 33km north of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamisnke, Vesele, Yakovlivka, and Bakhmutske.[41] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Wagner Group conducted an assault northeast of Bakhmut near Pidhorodne and that fierce fighting continues on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.[42] A Ukrainian commander reported that Russian forces do not control the industrial zone on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, an area that has been hotly contested in recent weeks.[43] The Ukrainian commander reported that a preponderance of Ukrainian drone surveillance in Bakhmut allows Ukrainian forces to quickly neutralize small Russian units that penetrate the outskirts of the city.[44] Ukrainian social media sources claimed that Ukrainian forces completely repelled Russian forces from the outskirts of Bakhmut, although ISW cannot independently verify these claims.[45] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces storming Bakhmut have not made significant progress.[46] Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are constructing defensive fortifications and preparing for street fighting in Bakhmut.[47] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Wagner Group also conducted an assault south of Bakhmut from the direction of Kurdyumivka and that fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces continued in Opytne.[48]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x The first photo of the French MLRS LRU in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/DnuWBO9XTQ — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) December 21, 2022

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces conducted limited assaults to regain lost positions in southern Kherson Oblast and continued shelling settlements in Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[55] Ukrainian Spokesperson for the Southern Defenses Nataliya Humenyuk stated on December 21 that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attempts to establish control over the islands of the Dnipro delta over an unspecified time frame and that Russian forces may attempt future efforts to seize the islands.[56] The head of the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavrisk Direction Defense Forces, Yevheny Yeri, emphasized on December 21 that Russian forces are moving forces in lower Kherson Oblast to support the construction of second and third lines of defense in the direction of Zaporizhia Oblast and Kherson City and are not demonstrating signs of retreat.[57] This supports and clarifies statements made by Yeri on December 19 describing Russian withdrawals of main units along the Dnipro River from Ukrainian artillery range, on which ISW previously reported.[58] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have been preparing for forcible evacuations of Ukrainian residents in Vasylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, and nearby settlements of Vasyliv Raion in Zaporizhia Oblast since December 12.[59]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Top Putin regime propagandist Solovyov warns Europe:



“We’ll take Berlin and Paris and put you bastards on trial in The Hague if you don’t learn to treat us with respect.”pic.twitter.com/IuP6LqVbPH — Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) December 21, 2022

note flag:

x BREAKING:



Dmitry Rogozin, the former Deputy PM of Russia, head of the Russian space agency Roskosmos and “former” Neo-Nazi” has been wounded and taken to hospital after the Ukrainian Army shelled a restaurant in Donetsk in which he celebrated his birthday with DPR top officials. pic.twitter.com/gb2RGLOhrl — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 21, 2022

x In the Russian propaganda "Neo-Nazis" are a synonym with the ZSU, volunteer battalions, and territorial defense forces. The goal with this rhetoric is to dehumanize the enemy: everybody hates nazis, and they SHOULD be treated badly and even killed.



11/12 pic.twitter.com/F3lfVvcxUG — Pekka Kallioniemi (@P_Kallioniemi) November 28, 2022

x Russia has continued expanding its military bases in the Arctic region despite significant losses in its war on Ukraine, according to a new series of satellite images obtained by CNN https://t.co/N1uG3Uwbx9 — CNN (@CNN) December 21, 2022

x I'm truly sorry your parents didn't know how to love you. It's not too late to get therapy, heal your childhood trauma and be a productive part of humanity. https://t.co/JNRrezLyJY — valerie bertinelli (@Wolfiesmom) December 21, 2022

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[1] Url: https://dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/21/2143187/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-302-Alive-amp-Kicking

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