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Ukraine Invasion Day 301: Russian authorities may extend the service period for conscript soldiers [1]
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Date: 2022-12-20
Russian forces only gained 192 square km of controlled ground around Bakmut since October. Zelenskyy is visiting Washington DC today.
x 🇺🇦 Update🧵December 20th
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https://t.co/u2DA9XfF7V pic.twitter.com/MajkvoeJQA — Def Mon (@DefMon3) December 20, 2022
Unroll available on Thread Reader Shelling locations reported by UA general staff today Yesterdays thread:
@davidhelms570
No change, continued above freezing temperatures. Svatove Weather byNo change, continued above freezing temperatures.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Stel'makhivka, Chervonopopivka and Serebryansʹke. Wargonzo reports a RU attack in the Makiivka direction.
Сергій Гайдай / Луганська ОДА @mentions Reports the AFU are a few kilometers away from Kreminna, unclear how many, but progress is slow because the area is heavily mined. He also states the defense of Bilohorivka is confidently holding .
The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Verkhn'okam'yanka. SiverskThe AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Verkhn'okam'yanka.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Opytne and Kurdyumivka. Wargonzo reports RU attacks in the direction of Bakhmutske. BakhmutThe AFU repulsed attacks around Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Opytne and Kurdyumivka. Wargonzo reports RU attacks in the direction of Bakhmutske.
I forgot to mention this yesterday, but I did link a video. Ukraine did some Christmas cleaning and removed unwanted rodents from the eastern parts of the city.
Unroll available on Thread Reader AFU soldier updating on the status of Bakhmut. UA MBT sending an unlubed messages.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Marinka and Krashnohorivka. Wargonzo reported RU attacks around Pobjeda and Oleksandropil. RU units aim to encircle Novobakhmutivka by cutting off the H-20 highway by Oleksandropil according to Wargonzo. DonetskThe AFU repulsed attacks around Marinka and Krashnohorivka. Wargonzo reported RU attacks around Pobjeda and Oleksandropil. RU units aim to encircle Novobakhmutivka by cutting off the H-20 highway by Oleksandropil according to Wargonzo.
Twitter broke the thread...
Training of RU soldiers, I mostly added this for the "Barrel Combat Roll" which I thought was funny.
AFU might be closing in on the town from the north west. A shelling was reported in the area of Verbove (the blue arrows are just the order the shellings were mentioned in)AFU might be closing in on the town from the north west.
Ukraine is starting to strike back against the RU power grid. Video in the thread.
Btw, I changed nothing in the Kreminna area based on Serhiy Hayday, there are however other rumors floating around out there too.
UA units 5km from Kreminna
Rough location before map change and after map change. Since they UA soldiers are casually walking, I’ll assume some buffer. This most likely means the battle for Kreminna has begun.Rough location before map change and after map change. Since they UA soldiers are casually walking, I’ll assume some buffer.
I do now.
t.me/Donbas_Operati… Донбас Оперативний I saw this post earlier, but I did not want to spread it around since I did not feel there was any evidence supporting it.I do now.
• • •
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Kreminna-Svatove line on December 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove), Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna), and Hryhorivka (11km south of Kreminna).[25] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted assaults near Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna) and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[26]
Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations in the Kreminna area on December 20. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Ukrainian forces have progressed a few kilometers towards Kreminna.[27] A BARS-13 (Russian Combat Reserve) affiliated source claimed that Ukrainian forces are continuously attempting to break through Russian defenses near Kreminna.[28] The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) People’s Militia claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Svatove and Novoselivka (53km southeast of Svatove) with HIMARS rockets and 155-mm artillery.[29]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
The pace of Russian advances in the Bakhmut area has not increased in previous weeks. ISW assesses that Russian forces have gained a total of 192 sq km in the Bakhmut area between October 1 and December 20. Russian forces gained 100 sq km in the Bakhmut area between October 1 and November 1 and 92 sq km between November 1 and December 20. The pace of Russian advances in the Bakhmut area over the past 50 days is roughly equivalent to the pace of Russian advances during the month of October. Russian sources will likely continue to try to falsely assert that Russian forces are taking a notable amount of territory in the Bakhmut area.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces are expanding fortifications in the left-bank Kherson Oblast and are continuing to shell settlements in Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[44] Geolocated footage demonstrated that Russian forces visibly expanded fortifications near Bekhtery (approximately 50km southwest of Kherson City) between November 15 and December 20.[45] Spokesperson for the Southern Defenses Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces are continuing to increase troops in the direction of the Kinburn Spit, but Ukrainian forces are continuing counter-battery efforts in the area.[46] Humenyuk added that Russian forces are continuing to shell Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, in an effort to provoke Ukrainian forces to retaliate with artillery fire. Ukrainian officials and social media users reported that Russian forces have shelled Kherson City and settlements on the right bank of the Dnipro River in western Kherson Oblast.[47]
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian logistics in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces stuck a Russian permanent deployment point in the area of Chaplynka (about 76km southeast of Kherson City) on December 18.[48] The Ukrainian General Staff also added that Ukrainian forces stuck Russian manpower and equipment concentrations in Polohy, Vasylivka, and Kaminka-Dniprovska, wounding up to 130 Russian servicemen and destroying 10 pieces of equipment.[49]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x “Only synchronised military aid to Ukraine & reinforcement of NATO’s Eastern Flank countries will ensure the complete failure of Russia’s plans in Europe.” A terrific new report from @PISM_Poland on effectively delivering military support to #Ukraine. #PISMReport @SlawomirDebski
https://t.co/go0mFt9KVz — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) December 20, 2022
x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 20
More equipment, fewer troops
TODAY'S REPORT:
430 soldiers killed ⬇
7-day average: 567 ⬇
28 equipment* lost ⬆
7-day average: 24 ⬆
* Land-based only
VISUALLY CONFIRMED:
3.20x losses to date ➡
2.86x counteroffensive ➡
https://t.co/M5cv4nvF3x — Lew Anno Yieretz Israel (@anno1540) December 20, 2022
The Russian air force's lack of success over Ukraine — and the surprising resilience of Ukrainian airpower — has often obscured a grim fact: Ukraine's air force faces a foe with superior aircraft and missiles.
Given Russia's advantages in numbers and hardware, Ukraine could still lose the air war without Western help, no matter how successful Ukrainian pilots have been, according to a Royal United Services Institute report on the first five months of the war.
While the Russian air force has limited its operations over Ukrainian-controlled territory, in part because of its losses, some Russian fighters can destroy Ukrainian planes with long-range air-to-air missiles while remaining out of range of Ukrainian aircraft.
"Ukrainian pilots confirm that Russia's Su-30SM and Su-35S completely outclass Ukrainian Air Force fighter aircraft on a technical level," the report said, noting that the long-range "look-down, shoot-down" capabilities of their N011M Bars and N035 Irbis-E radars enable them to detect low-flying Ukrainian aircraft despite ground clutter.
www.yahoo.com/...
x Belarus, by order of Lukashenko, began a sudden check of the combat readiness of troops
https://t.co/X03Ejei54F#Ukraine #UkrainRussiaWar #Belarus — Militarnyi (@militarnyi_en) December 13, 2022
ISW continues to observe indicators consistent with the most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a renewed Russian invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarus.[4] Ukrainian military officials continue to warn about a growing Russian threat from Belarus. Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander Serhiy Nayev stated on December 20 that Russian elements in Belarus have military potential “currently sufficient” to create an unspecified threat to Ukraine and that these elements can conduct unspecified “tactical actions.”[5] Nayev’s statement marks an inflection in Ukrainian officials’ characterization of the growing Russian forces in Belarus; previous Ukrainian descriptions of Russian forces in Belarus did not ascribe to them tactically significant capacities.[6] Independent Belarusian sources continue to report growing Russian mechanized forces in Belarus.[7] About 30 Russian T-80 tanks were reportedly deployed to Belarus around December 20.[8]
These indicators support the MDCOA forecast, but that course of action remains unlikely at this time. A Russian invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarus is not very likely imminent. Nayev reiterated that Ukraine’s defense is prepared to defend northern Ukraine.[9] The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated that it has not observed Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus as of December 20.[10] ISW will continue to monitor the situation.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Putin's aide, Peskov, is wearing a $6 million watch! Who does that? & Why dont Russians get more pissed off about this? Sometimes, I wish there were more real communists in Russia, pushing for a class-based revolution against this corrupt ancien regime.
https://t.co/gZrjXMh7Oc — Michael McFaul (@McFaul) December 20, 2022
Today, hardly anyone in the world supports Putin’s war in Ukraine. Since its start, I have had many discussions with senior Biden administration officials, including with President Biden himself. They want this war to end now. NATO leaders also want this war to end now. In fact, I cannot think of a single world leader who wants the war to continue. Those who believe that the Pentagon wants to use this “proxy war” to weaken Russia, or that Beijing wants to use this “proxy war” to deplete American military supplies, are wrong. And no one wants this war to end more than President Zelenskyy himself. Nothing is harder personally for Zelenskyy than getting the daily reports of new deaths of Ukrainian citizens who he feels he failed to protect.
I doubt there are many Russians left that support this war’s continuation. Recent polls, however imperfect, show that Russian society wants peace over war. Most business elites stayed quiet but detested this war from the beginning. As human and economic costs continue to rise, we get hints that some in Putin’s inner circle want this barbaric invasion to end, too.
There is one person, however, who clearly wants this war to continue – Vladimir Putin. If you really want peace in Ukraine, then you must either convince Putin to end his invasion or compel him to stop fighting. Right now, I don’t think that diplomatic overtures will stop Putin. Instead, more and better weapons to Ukraine, and more and better sanctions against the Russian economy, especially Putin’s inner circle, will compel Putin to stop fighting. Tragically, it’s that simple.
x "... I feel uneasy arguing for more and better weapons for Ukraine. The same goes for sanctions, knowing they will impact common Russians more than Putin and his circle. Right now, however, I don’t see any realistic or moral alternatives."
https://t.co/YuzQESL8tq — Michael McFaul (@McFaul) December 20, 2022
x The International Working Group on Russian Sanctions | FSI
The International Working Group on Russian Sanctions
Current proposals by the International Working Group on Russian Sanctions focus on ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
https://t.co/C5HN62znoK — Sonee #WomensRightsAreHumanRights (@Sonee333Sonny) December 21, 2022
x The reason of “The special military operation” has changed again.
The special operation was absolutely necessary to thwart plans to turn Ukraine into an anti-Russian country,” Lavrov said during the talks. His words are quoted by TASS. pic.twitter.com/c6zYLRL8Zt — Yasmina (@yasminalombaert) December 19, 2022
Ukraine Urging Russian Soldiers to Surrender to Drones
KYIV, Ukraine — Tens of thousands of drones have been employed across Ukraine to kill the enemy, spy on its formations and guide bombs to their targets. But this month the Ukrainian military began a program to use drones in a more unusual role: to guide Russian soldiers who want to surrender.
The program had its genesis in late November, when the Ukrainian military released footage of a Russian soldier throwing his weapon to the ground, raising his hands and nervously following a path set out by a drone overhead, leading him to soldiers from the Ukrainian army’s 54th Mechanized Brigade.
A few weeks later, the Ukrainian General Staff released an instructional video explaining how Russian soldiers can surrender to a Ukrainian drone, and it is now part of a wide-ranging effort by Ukraine to persuade Russian soldiers to give up. The program, called “I want to live,” includes a phone hotline, a website and a Telegram channel all dedicated to communicating to Russian soldiers and their families.
news.yahoo.com/...
x Ukrainian President Zelensky to travel to US in first foreign visit since invasion
https://t.co/0uX4ucQ8gl — Anthony DeRosa (@Anthony) December 20, 2022
WASHINGTON (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is preparing to visit Washington on Wednesday, according to three AP sources, in his first known trip outside the country since Russia’s invasion began in February.
Two congressional sources and one person familiar with the matter confirmed plans for the visit. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the highly sensitive nature of the trip. They said Zelenskyy’s visit, while expected, could still be called off at the last minute due to security concerns.
The visit to Washington is set to include an address to Congress on Capitol Hill and a meeting with President Joe Biden. It comes as lawmakers are preparing to vote on a year-end spending package that includes about $45 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine and as the U.S. prepares to send Patriot surface-to-air missiles to help stave off Russia’s invasion.
The latest tranche of U.S. funding would be the biggest American infusion of assistance yet to Ukraine, above even Biden’s $37 billion emergency request, and would ensure that funding flows to the war effort for months to come.
apnews.com/...
x The U.S. is expected to announce on Wednesday that it will provide Ukraine with Patriot missile defense systems and precision bomb kits that will turn dumb bombs into smart bombs guided by GPS coordinates toward their targets, according to U.S. officials.
https://t.co/Ne5GwqpOhX — ABC News (@ABC) December 21, 2022
x Zelensky’s “Bakhmut Speech” today.
A speech that will go down in the history books.pic.twitter.com/fH1HPCBQKl — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 20, 2022
Ukraine is at #122 out of 180 and Russia is at #136.
[END]
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