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Ukraine Invasion Day 300: Russia Sending Circus Performers to Ukraine, one went to Belarus [1]
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Date: 2022-12-19
Analysts say the Kremlin might look again for some kind of Belarusian military support for its Ukraine operations. But the winter weather and Russia's depleted resources mean any attack probably won't come soon, according to @TheStudyofWar
Since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, # Ukraine has liberated a total of 74,443 sq km of territory from Russian forces.
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has issued an order, which stipulates that free land plots in the suburbs of Moscow, Crimea and Sevastopol will be given to participants of the war in Ukraine.
Source: Ostorozhno Novosti (Warning, News) agency on Telegram; a copy of Putin's decree
Details: According to the decree, Putin decided to give land to military personnel awarded for their merits in the war, the veterans, and relatives of the perished army servicemen.
The decree was signed on 19 December.
www.pravda.com.ua/...
x .@DefenceHQ shows how Ukrainian recruits prepare for frontline combat in Northern England
Around 10k soldiers will finish the training program by end of 2022. 19,200 are planned to be trained after 1 Jan.
(Vest says "There is only one God jn the sky & one Ukraine on the earth") pic.twitter.com/4WPZJyDMqn — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) December 19, 2022
x How is Ukraine beating Russia?
A: Ukraine has superior battlefield technology -- better maps, thermal imaging and drones
"With these systems aiding brave Ukrainian troops, the Russians probably cannot win this war," writes @IgnatiusPost
https://t.co/6Dpw9tiQtT — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 19, 2022
Are they really sending circus acts into a war zone?
Yes. The scheme, initially announced by the Russian Defence Ministry on Dec. 14, was confirmed by the British MoD on Sunday, Dec. 18.
In a statement, the MoD said that the so-called "creative brigades" are intended to counter "fragile morale" among Russian troops which, "almost certainly continues to be a significant vulnerability across much of the Russian force".
"Military music and organized entertainment for deployed troops have a long history in many militaries," the statement said, "but in Russia they are strongly intertwined with the Soviet-era concept of ideological political education."
How on earth will it help Russian troops?
Well, of course, it most probably won’t. "Fragile morale almost certainly continues to be a significant vulnerability across much of the Russian force," the statement continued, adding that the move was "unlikely" to alleviate concerns held by Russian soldiers.
"Soldiers’ concerns primarily focus on very high casualty rates, poor leadership, pay problems, lack of equipment and ammunition, and lack of clarity about the war’s objectives, " the statement added.
"The creative brigades’ efforts are unlikely to substantively alleviate these concerns."
www.kyivpost.com/...
x "Serhii Telizhenko, of the National Institute of Archaeology in Kyiv, who has been monitoring the wave of destruction, said he realised there would be losses after the invasion, “but I could not imagine the scale”." #Ukraine #Scythian#culturalheritage
https://t.co/3nuDoQPvsx — pinkprincessinthecity🌸🧱🏙️👩🏻🎨👩🏻🔬👩🏻🏫 (@pinkprincessin1) December 19, 2022
x ⚡️"The situation in the city of Bakhmut as of December 19 has not changed. The Armed Forces of Ukraine hold all occupied positions," — a Ukrainian military official reports.
👉Follow@Flash_news_ua pic.twitter.com/Fi9xwbjrb1 — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) December 19, 2022
x Some have called the Russian efforts to take Bakhmut senseless, but I don't necessarily agree.
Why does Bakhmut matter and why are both Ukraine and Russia willing to throw so many men into the meatgrinder it has become?
As promised: why Bakhmut? A thread.
1/ pic.twitter.com/QhJNSbyZYz — John Helin (@J_JHelin) December 15, 2022
In short:
1) It controls the Ukrainian logistics of a vast area and is a significant transport hub
2) It allows Russia to threaten other contact line fortifications.
3) Capturing it and pushing past the contact line. gives Russia better terrain for future offensives. 2/
1) The city of Bakhmut is an important crossroad and the major arteries of northern Donetsk run through it, most importantly the M03 towards Slovyansk.
In addition, a railroad runs from the city towards the south through Maiorsk to Luhansk and Russia. 3/ The city of Bakhmut is an important crossroad and the major arteries of northern Donetsk run through it, most importantly the M03 towards Slovyansk.In addition, a railroad runs from the city towards the south through Maiorsk to Luhansk and Russia. 3/
This means that capturing the city and the surrounding area, especially the Severodonetsk road, helps with Russian logistics in the area and makes the city a good staging point for future offensives towards Slovyansk.
We'll talk about this more in the third part. 4/
The bridge over the Siverskiy Donets at Zakitne is still down.
(Sentinel, 4.12.22) 5/ On a more local level the main supply route of Soledar, and Siversk further north, runs near the city and thus capturing Bakhmut makes the defence of the Siversk area more challenging.The bridge over the Siverskiy Donets at Zakitne is still down.(Sentinel, 4.12.22) 5/
Thus the logistics of the whole Siversk direction would need to be run through much smaller roads.
In addition, many feel that the Kreminna direction might be the best bet for Ukrainian advances in Luhansk. Russian gains near Siversk would put that effort in trouble 6/
While Ukraine has been good at using smaller roads for logistics in the past, it's unclear how winter conditions will affect many of these minor routes. Snow and ice may at the very least slow down logistics over them. 7/
Even if Siversk itself is properly supplied, the fall of Bakhmut would greatly affect the situation in Soledar, and give Russia better eyes upon the Bakhmutovka valley, meaning that Ukrainian defensive lines might have to be pulled further west 8/
In the most boring way taking Bakhmut opens up the Popasna road for supply. 9/
2)
However, Siversk isn't the only thing influenced by Bakhmut. While the city itself is deep behind the old contact line, its fall would allow Russia to flank other fortifications.
This is part of a larger Russian idea of encircling strong points on the contact line. 10/ However, Siversk isn't the only thing influenced by Bakhmut. While the city itself is deep behind the old contact line, its fall would allow Russia to flank other fortifications.This is part of a larger Russian idea of encircling strong points on the contact line. 10/
By looking at the rainbow gradient map of doom, we can see that the ridgeline on the SW side of Bakhmut (the light blue area top mid) is the dominating terrain feature of the area, and gives Russia the ability to support attacks southwest, towards the Toretsk supply routes. 11/
The area of Dyliivka is not nearly as well fortified as the area near Bakhmut was, and should Russia manage to cross the canal west of Kurdyumivka and advance westwards with the help of the heights, they could eventually put the T0516 under fire control. 12/
As with other Russian advancements, this would hardly be a lighting strike towards the southwest, but it would nevertheless make supplying Toretsk and Pivnichne a lot more challenging, and Russia hopes that it could force Ukraine to withdraw from those cities. 13/
This would, again, open up the contact line and let Russia advance westwards from the Maiorsk railway station without urban combat in Pivnichne and Toretsk. This is in line with other Russian attempts to threaten encirclement and have Ukraine withdraw from cities. 14/
As said, these advances would most likely not be fast. Nothing like we saw in Popasna, and a long slog, but Russia may believe that it could breach the contact line in multiple places before spring
15/ If Toretsk falls, Niu-Yorks supply lines start being under threat.As said, these advances would most likely not be fast. Nothing like we saw in Popasna, and a long slog, but Russia may believe that it could breach the contact line in multiple places before spring
This brings us to
3)
Russia may believe that with the mobilization producing up to 300 000 troops, and giving it a chance to rest and refit other units, it's in a position to take the initiative and launch a major offensive attempt come spring. 16/
Such an offensive attempt would most likely be aimed at capturing the rest of the Donetsk oblast. For this to have any chance of success, Russia wants to be past the contact line fortifications. The Popasna offensive taught them dearly how hard it is to push past them. 17/
This also highlights the importance of Bakhmut once again. The M03 towards Slovyansk is a natural attack vector for Russian troops, and the railway line means, that should Russia manage to take significant ground, Bakhmut can act as a supply hub. 18/
Of course, the chances of such an offensive succeeding are slim in the best of conditions and are reliant on Ukraine running low on artillery ammunition and other equipment.
However, that doesn't really matter as long as the Russian political leadership demands it. 18/
Outside of these 3 points, there is the Siverskiy Donetsk - Donetsk canal which is essential for getting water to the areas that Russia has occupied since 2015. Donetsk is suffering from lack of water and controlling the canal is very important for Russian political goals. 19/
In a similar vein, Siversk was in a bad situation already during the summer with Russians north of the river 20/ It's also true that the significance of Bakhmut was much, much higher back when Russia still was in Izium and Slovyansk would've been advanced upon from two sides.In a similar vein, Siversk was in a bad situation already during the summer with Russians north of the river 20/
Russian gains do not mean that the Siversk area will certainly fall into Russian hands, nor that the Toretsk - Niu York - Pivnichne triangle will fall. It just makes future Russian operations to take these areas easier, or even possible at all in the case of the latter. 21/
Even if Bakhmut falls the Ukrainians will put up a significant fight against any future Russian advances. Of course, Bakhmut with its urban terrain and relatively covered supply line to the west has presented itself as an exceptionally defensible area. 22/
Thus, in conclusion, I've seen the Russian operations in Bakhmut be called senseless, but I think Bakhmut isn't called "the key to Donetsk" for nothing. The Russians know the possibilities that controlling the city opens and Ukraine knows the challenges losing it will bring. 23/
With the challenges that both sides have had with offensive action against determined defenders, I'm not sure it's worth it, but there is at least a reason why both sides are willing to expend such large amounts of men and material in the Bakhmut meatgrinder. 24/
Any future advance from Bakhmut onwards will also be a slow slog, just as Bakhmut itself has been, and the situation on the ground may change many times before any of the possibilities can actually be realised, but without Bakhmut Russia can't realise them at all. 25/
As always, me, @emilkastehelmi @EerikMatero and the rest of our team are working on a constantly updating situational map of the war. It can be found here: tinyurl.com/Tilannekartta
The Finnish audience can also catch me at @hsfi doing fact checking and in Ukraine Studio.
26/26 The War in Ukraine
And as an addendum:
I'm not 100% convinced the city is worth the resources Russia is pouring into it, although Russia does see Wagner prisoners as fully expendable. However, the location of the city does still matter and isn't senseless carnage for no military reason at all
• • •
x A 🇷🇺Russian tank burned by a 🇺🇦Ukrainian artillery strike in Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/3X2PRxonft — Ukraine-Russia war (@UkraineRussia2) December 19, 2022
x 2/2
Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Krasnohorivka, Oleksandropil, Marinka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk O.) — MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) December 19, 2022
x Russia's Shadowy Mercenary Air Force Is Losing More And More Jets In Ukraine - Forbes
https://t.co/vNjROvymtN via @GoogleNews — g.AI.a (@Gaia_on_Tera) December 19, 2022
x Anglo RWNJs. Kissinger in Spectator on 'How to avoid another world war' by appeasing Putin & deflecting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Seems more about being tepid on NATO & antipathy towards the EU, helping Putin....
https://t.co/MPJsIIhpET — Andrew Smith (@EdTrainSociety) December 19, 2022
x "Ukrainian victory is necessary for ending the war in a manner that precludes further Russian attacks on #Ukraine in the near or medium term. And if Putin will not change his intent, Ukraine needs to change the Kremlin’s capability to fight." @opinion
https://t.co/1lyL4bXhI7 — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) December 18, 2022
x Russia's Investigative Committee saw nothing illegal in Anton Krasovsky's statements on Russian state TV, where he advocated drowning Ukrainian children and burning Ukrainians in their homes.
https://t.co/bhdicHjqUQ pic.twitter.com/uv45S4008y — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) December 17, 2022
x Kyiv. Kremenchuk. Kryvyi Rih. Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure leverage civilian harm as a tactic of war. They appear aimed primarily at sowing terror among civilians & making life unsustainable for them, in violation of laws of war.
https://t.co/rDsKH8ouvt pic.twitter.com/YnRzmPaDIY — Rachel Denber (@Rachel_Denber) December 17, 2022
x Vladimir Putin’s aircraft has entered the air space of Belarus. Before that two more aircrafts took off from Moscow and St. Petersburg, likely to divert attention from the aircraft with the Russian president on board.
Source: MotolkoPomogi pic.twitter.com/DvYI7vUVOP — Ukrainian News24 (@UkrainianNews24) December 19, 2022
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin made a rare trip Monday to Moscow’s ally Belarus as his forces pursued their campaign to torment Ukraine from the air amid a broad battlefield stalemate almost 10 months into the war.
Putin’s visit came hours after Russia’s latest drone attack on Ukraine. Moscow has been targeting Ukraine’s power grid since October as part of a strategy to try to leave the country without heat and light during the bitterly cold winter.
The Russian leader’s brief trip to Minsk could herald more military support for the Kremlin’s war effort, after Belarus provided the Kremlin’s troops with a launching pad for the invasion of Ukraine last February.
Belarus is believed to have Soviet-era weapons stockpiles that could be useful for Moscow. Lukashenko, meanwhile, needs help with his country’s ailing economy. It was a rare trip to Minsk by Putin, who usually receives Lukashenko at the Kremlin.
Moscow has kept up its war effort despite Western sanctions and the supply of Western air defense systems to Ukrainian forces.
Sitting beside Lukashenko before their talks in the capital of Minsk, Putin emphasized the allies’ close military-technical ties. He said they include not only mutual supplies of equipment but also joint work in high-tech military industries.
Analysts say the Kremlin might look again for some kind of Belarusian military support for its Ukraine operations. But the winter weather and Russia’s depleted resources mean any big Russian attack probably won’t come soon, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington.
apnews.com/...
x Belarus is not for sale. Our independence is not for sale. The dictator Lukashenka can't make agreements on behalf of our people - he only represents himself. And he won't save his own skin - he will be held responsible for his crimes against Belarusians & Ukrainians. pic.twitter.com/Y3O8Zw2g5u — Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya) December 19, 2022
Chances of Belarus sending troops into Ukraine ‘may increase in coming weeks’, says opposition leader
The exiled Belarus opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has warned that the chances of Minsk sending soldiers into Ukraine “may increase in coming weeks” as fears grow in Kyiv that Moscow is pushing for its closest ally to join a new ground offensive against Ukraine.
Tsikhanouskaya’s remarks came as Vladimir Putin travelled to Belarus for talks with Alexander Lukashenko, a meeting that the Belarusian president said would cover the “military-political situation” in the region as well as economic cooperation.
Ukraine will be closely monitoring the talks. Last week, several Ukrainian military commanders said Russia might try another attempt at invading the country from the north. Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday that Ukraine was ready for “all possible defence scenarios” against Moscow and its ally.
Kyiv was “right to prepare” for Minsk to join Moscow’s new offensive because the probability “might increase in coming weeks”, Tsikhanouskaya said in an interview with Kyiv Post.
www.theguardian.com/...
x Size of Putin's delegation in Belarus suggests 'something is up'
https://t.co/UKwrfwV5Sg — Sky News (@SkyNews) December 19, 2022
x This lecture held by professor Merci Shore, on Ukraine post sovietic times, and ending with Euromaidan revolution, is one of the most powerful, well documented and touching piece of modern History you can find on the tube. A huge huge thanks to @TimothyDSnyder #UkraineRussiaWar
https://t.co/ie4vgEXLdj — TheItalianQuokka (@modernwoodboat) December 19, 2022
x Report from Kyiv. I am used to the war. But today I cried. 50 kids- orphans and refugees came to KSE. Our students organized presents for them. Everyone was happy, but then there was a missile alarm. Kids panicked. Some younger ones were resisting going to shelter because 1/ pic.twitter.com/Y91FyJx4Ip — Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) December 17, 2022
I guess, they associate going to shelter with tragedy. These children are from the East of Ukraine, from the cities and villages that have been razed to the ground. Going to shelter means someone might die. But once they were in our shelter they became happy again 2/
Some said that our shelter is not at all like a shelter. It is warm, cozy, heated, just a normal room. They were so sweet. I melted and wanted to help them. I think they are going through hell. A human made hell. I hate the Russian state. You will all be in hell. 3/
The presents program is completely run by KSE students. No supervision. Their initiative. They ask KSE students, faculty, and staff to buy presents. And then match them with kids. Soldiers give out the presents on behalf of St Nicholaus. And kids make drawings and give them 4/
to soldiers. I talked to our students and asked how much an average present costs. They said about $10. Some people buy something simple, just candies. Kids are loving it, they are melting from happiness. I came out of the building and hid to cry. I couldn’t help it. Why? 5/
Why did Russia start this war? Why are these kids now orphans or refugees? Is it worth it, Russia? I am still emotional, 12 hours after. I asked students if there are more kids who need presents. They said “yes, hundreds, may be thousands, but they only had presents for 50” 6/
I will try to have KSE and students organize another round. This time 500 kids. We will ask people to buy presents. And will donate from the KSE foundation what is missing. Thank you, people, for being human! 7/7
Thank you people for your donations. You are absolutely heartbreaking!! In an very good way. Here is the pinned tweet with info. I have just reported 3 accounts impersonating me, too, so I repost this tweet again. You can check that it is pinned, is dated, has a lot of likes
• • •
[END]
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