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Ukraine Invasion Day 299: "Ukraine does not want to invade Moscow" - Zelenskyy [1]
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Date: 2022-12-18
The demands for an end to the conflict now begin to incorporate more disinformation including eliminationist rhetoric as even “land for peace” now enters the discourse. More likely will be a series of major offensives with the expected pressures of major nations to negotiate an end to the war.
As Ukrainian officials warn that Russia might be preparing for a new ground offensive this winter, waves of Russian missiles continue to batter Ukraine’s infrastructure . The attacks are leaving
One early pattern, for example, showed that about 20 percent of Russia’s war deaths were officers. “That told us a lot about how the Russian Army operates,” said Olga Ivshina, a reporter with the BBC Russian service who alternates with Mediazona each week to tally the numbers. It turned out that senior Russian officers were initially deployed near the front lines because junior officers could not issue orders.
“The project is a useful snapshot of the breakdowns and wider patterns in Russian losses,” said Karolina Hird, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. “We know that Russian authorities are simply not presenting truthful reporting on losses.”
Military analysts have mixed views on the project. Some prefer to work with estimates of the overall number killed rather than a slice of the total. Others stressed that the work had been especially helpful in identifying patterns.
With so much fog of war shrouding the subject, Mediazona decided that online sleuthing was needed to establish a baseline of Russian deaths. A scattered group of volunteers in Russia was already trying to document the deaths on their own, and the BBC News Russian service had done several articles on the subject, so they combined forces.
There have been similar estimates for Ukrainian losses, with Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, telling a Ukrainian news station this month that up to 13,000 Ukrainian troops had died in the conflict.
“Russia’s political leadership clearly refuses to acknowledge the tactical defeats that already took place and grasps at any, even the most illusory, chances to change the situation in its favor,” Mr. Podolyak said.
Russia has already drafted and is training soldiers who might be deployed in mass infantry attacks, Mr. Podolyak said. It is one of several possible threats that Ukraine faces from Russia over the winter months, he said, as officials in Kyiv see little sign that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is seeking an end to the war.
Mr. Podolyak’s comments came as Ukraine’s top military and political leaders have been warning in a series of recent interviews that Russia is massing troops and armaments to launch a renewed ground offensive by spring that very likely would include a second attempt to seize Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.
Despite suffering severe setbacks over the first 10 months of war, the Russian military is now laying plans for mass infantry attacks akin to the tactics employed by the Soviet Union during World War II, the adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said in written responses to questions.
Ukraine is bracing for the possibility that Russia will sharply escalate the war in a winter offensive as Moscow tries to turn the tide on the battlefield and limit political backlash at home, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday.
Prigozhin’s bid for increased recognition comes as reports of systematic executions within Wagner forces emerge, suggesting that Wagner leadership is willing to go to great lengths to preserve the Wagner Group’s image as a highly disciplined force. [xiii] Russian opposition outlet The Insider reported on December 16 that Wagner forces routinely execute deserters and those who refuse to fight, especially those recruited from penal colonies. [xiv] The Insider reported that Wagner has its own internal security forces to conduct the executions and that one commander – who commanded executed POW Yevgeny Nuzhin – personally witnessed several executions. [xv] Prigozhin previously expressed public support for Nuzhin’s execution, as ISW has previously reported. [xvi] Such reports also indicate that Wagner Group forces struggle with morale and discipline issues among new recruits similar to those of conventional Russian forces but combat it with harsh punishments rather than the obfuscation and attempts to appease dissatisfied recruits that characterize the Russian MoD’s general approach.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued efforts to legitimize the Wagner Group as a parastatal armed force and increase his own powerbase by lobbying for increased state benefits for Wagner Group personnel who fought in Ukraine. Prigozhin complained on December 18 that the local St. Petersburg authorities refused to bury a Wagner Group fighter in burial grounds for participants of the “special operation” and instead intend to relegate private military company (PMC) fighters to a separate section, which Prigozhin called humiliating. [vii] Prigozhin released a letter appealing to Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrey Kartapolov to extend combat veteran status to Wagner Group fighters. [viii] Some Russian milbloggers expressed support for this measure, claiming that any Russian citizen who fights and dies in Ukraine deserves to be buried with full military honors. [ix] Prigozhin’s appeal does not include fighters of other PMCs, however. [x] Prigozhin previously expressed his support for a similar measure on November 8 when the State Duma considered and passed a bill extending combat veteran status to Russian military volunteers. [xi] Prigozhin has notably feuded with Russian regional authorities in Belgorod Oblast and St. Petersburg, as ISW has previously reported. [xii]
The capacity of the Russian military, even reinforced by elements of the Belarusian armed forces, to prepare and conduct effective large-scale mechanized offensive operations in the next few months remains questionable, as other analysts have observed. [vi] The manpower Russia is generating from mobilized reservists and from the annual fall conscription cycle will not be sufficiently trained to conduct rapid and effective mechanized maneuver this fall. Russia’s struggles to keep the forces it currently has fighting in Ukraine equipped with tanks, artillery, long range strike, and other essential materiel are very unlikely to be resolved in time to equip a large new force for offensive operations this winter. Putin may nevertheless order renewed large-scale offensive operations later this winter, but it is important not to overestimate the likely capabilities of Russian or combined Russo-Belarusian forces to conduct them successfully. ISW continues to assess, finally, that it is unlikely that Lukashenko will in fact commit the Belarusian military (which would also have to be re-equipped) to the invasion of Ukraine
A team of New York Times reporters investigated one of the central questions of the war in Ukraine: Why has Russia bungled its invasion so badly? Here are some of the takeaways from the report.
https://t.co/PJZ3wC8A4M
Indeed, the businessmen present were all hit by Western sanctions in the months that followed. Even so, another billionaire at the Kremlin that day, Andrey Melnichenko, was defiant, insisting sanctions would not make Russian tycoons turn against Mr. Putin. “In textbooks, they call this political terrorism,” he said.
As Russia’s military campaign has suffered a series of painful and embarrassing setbacks, Mr. Putin has distanced himself from the blunders, clearly unwilling to associate himself with defeat. All the while he has maintained a studied calm, insisting against all reason that the war is “going according to plan.”
Mr. Putin spent the day on Friday in the military headquarters in an undisclosed location, presiding over a general meeting with Russia’s top brass and holding separate ones with various commanders, the Kremlin said in a statement . In his opening remarks, carried on Russian state television, Mr. Putin said he had come to listen to his commanders’ proposals about the Russian military’s “short- and medium-term movements.”
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia made a surprise visit to a command post coordinating the Russian war effort in Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Saturday, in a rare demonstration of hands-on involvement in the military campaign’s execution and planning.
Russian MoD reported that minister Sergey Shoigu inspected frontline positions of 🇷🇺 units and flew above 🇷🇺 troop deployment areas. All points that it's a fake. View from his helicopter's window. Middle of December, the grass is green in the "special military operation" zone. pic.twitter.com/cRECvpcHUf
Putin’s planned December 19 meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely part of the same effort to present proactivity as well as an effort to set information conditions for a new phase of the war. Commander of the Ukrainian Combined Forces Serhiy Nayev commented on the upcoming Putin-Lukashenko meeting and noted that it comes after Putin’s December 17 meeting with Russian military command to discuss both immediate and mid-term goals for the war. [iv] Nayev reported that the Ukrainian government believes Putin will discuss the wider involvement of Belarusian forces in further Russian aggression against Ukraine, which is consistent with ISW’s forecast for the meeting. [v] Taken in tandem, Putin’s meeting with Russian command, Shoigu’s purported frontline visit, and the Putin-Lukashenko meeting suggest a new phase in the presentation, planning, and conduct of the war and may presage renewed offensive operations against Ukraine in the coming months.
x Ukraine does not want to invade Moscow - Zelenskyy
Speaking to French TV, he says that Ukraine is interested in regaining only its land and that it makes sense to talk with a Russia that respects Ukraine, but not with a "Nazi" Russia
https://t.co/22P7vh9cW4 — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) December 18, 2022
Russian military leadership is engaged in a campaign to present itself as part of an effective wartime apparatus in an effort to address public perception of Russian failures in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) posted footage on December 18 reportedly of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on a working trip to the Southern Military District (SMD) and inspecting the Russian force grouping in the combat zone in Ukraine.[i] Shoigu reportedly received briefings from field commanders and spoke directly with personnel on the frontline paying “special attention to the organization of comprehensive support for the troops, the conditions for deploying personnel in the field, as well as the work of medical and rear units.”[ii] The Russian MoD posted footage on December 17 of Shoigu attending a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and Commander of the Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine Sergei Surovikin to discuss near and mid-term proposals for Russian operations in Ukraine.[iii] Shoigu’s recent engagements suggest that the Russian MoD is attempting to bolster its reputation as an effective military organ in the face of consistent criticism of its conduct of the war by the pro-war community. The recent concerted efforts by Russian military officials to present themselves as actively engaged in planning and in controlling the war effort, especially in the absence of tangible military victories in Ukraine, may suggest that Russia is preparing for a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the coming months. Shoigu’s visit to the SMD with its focus on sustainment and medical support is likely part of an effort to show that the military leadership is fixing the Russian military’s devastating failures in those areas that have been the subject of constant angry commentary by milbloggers and protests by soldiers and their families.
Putin’s planned December 19 meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely part of the same effort to present proactivity as well as an effort to set information conditions for a new phase of the war. Commander of the Ukrainian Combined Forces Serhiy Nayev commented on the upcoming Putin-Lukashenko meeting and noted that it comes after Putin’s December 17 meeting with Russian military command to discuss both immediate and mid-term goals for the war.[iv] Nayev reported that the Ukrainian government believes Putin will discuss the wider involvement of Belarusian forces in further Russian aggression against Ukraine, which is consistent with ISW’s forecast for the meeting.[v] Taken in tandem, Putin’s meeting with Russian command, Shoigu’s purported frontline visit, and the Putin-Lukashenko meeting suggest a new phase in the presentation, planning, and conduct of the war and may presage renewed offensive operations against Ukraine in the coming months.
www.criticalthreats.org/...
x Sunday evening with 🇷🇺 propagandist Solovyov where the special guest Zakharova Is upset about the decision of Moldova to revoke the licenses of six Russian-language TV channels. She also talks about “provocative statements” of the German ambassador to Russia. 👏 Moldova pic.twitter.com/fQ2jPRbv4m — Ivana Stradner 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ivanastradner) December 18, 2022
A Russian tank unit attacked another Russian position in Ukraine following an argument, the NYT said.
The incident demonstrates the vicious in-fighting that has plagued Vladimir Putin's military.
There has been open sparring among the leaders of different splinters of Russian forces.
A Russian tank commander deliberately attacked another Russian position in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine this summer following a battlefield argument, a major new report said.
The incident, part of a sweeping investigation by The New York Times , is one of the clearest examples of the vicious in-fighting that has plagued President Vladimir Putin's military throughout the war.
A Russian drone operator who said he witnessed the episode told the paper that a Russian tank commander drove his T-90 tank toward a group of Russian national guard troops, fired at their checkpoint and blew it up.
www.newsbreak.com/…
Mr. Putin’s fractured armies have sometimes turned on each other; one soldier said a tank commander deliberately fired on a Russian checkpoint. Mr. Putin divided his forces into fiefs, some led by people who are not even part of the military, such as his former bodyguard, the leader of Chechnya and a mercenary boss who has provided catering for Kremlin events, Yevgeny Prigozhin. In an interview after being captured by Ukraine, one Russian soldier said he had been in prison for murder when Mr. Prigozhin recruited him. Later, after he was returned to Russia in a prisoner swap, a video emerged of his execution by sledgehammer.
www.nytimes.com/...
Ever since Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24 the Western Left has been uncharacteristically subdued. The biggest and bloodiest crisis in Europe since 1945 is unfolding before our eyes yet the Left has had nothing significant to say.
It is not that leftists support Putin’s war. On the contrary, just like people in the moderate mainstream, most leftists see it as illegal, criminal and a blatant violation of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.
It is true that most people on the left believe the expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders since 1999 was disastrously wrong and unnecessary, and that Washington and its European allies bear most of the blame for poisoning relations between Russia and the West over the last thirty years. A few people on the left argue that NATO’s enlargement strategy provoked Putin’s invasion, but the vast majority have avoided the trap of claiming that Putin’s aggression was legitimate and justifiable. They condemned it and still condemn it unreservedly. However angry Russia may be about NATO nothing justifies invading a neighbouring state.
Leftists also accept that Ukraine has an absolute right to defend itself against foreign invasion and enlist help from other states to resist occupation. By the same token foreign states have the right to respond to Ukraine’s appeal for help, economic, political and military. Those states include the United States, Britain and most members of NATO.
This is where the Left’s silence begins. The Left finds itself on the same side as the United States and rightwing governments in Britain, France, Italy and other European countries. It is an embarrassing position. We may well have differences with the US over Washington’s ulterior motives. Evidence suggests that NATO’s hawks have turned the crisis into a proxy war which aims to humiliate and bankrupt Russia and remove it as a respected player on the international stage.
Some want to use the war in order to break Russia apart in the same sort of way as the Soviet Union was destroyed. US neocons welcome the chance to embed NATO more firmly into Europe’s security architecture and strengthen US hegemony over Europe. One can suspect all sorts of US motives but the fact remains that on the basic principle of US military support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion we are on the same side as Washington. It makes things very awkward for the Left. In fact I can’t think of many significant occasions since 1945 when the Left has found itself as aligned with the Americans as it is today. There have been scores of military interventions by US imperialism in the last six decades, in South-east Asia, the Caribbean, Central America and the Middle East. Virtually all were vigorously and loudly opposed by the Left.
www.counterpunch.org/...
x A friend in Kyiv said that this lecture series has completely changed his understanding of his own country. I plan to watch over break. You should too! Thank you @TimothyDSnyder:
Timothy Snyder: The Making of Modern Ukraine. Class 1: Ukrainian Questio...
https://t.co/vnn00OBygX — Michael McFaul (@McFaul) December 6, 2022
x 6 minutes into the interview an air raid siren goes off. — Daniel McFadin (@danielmcfadin) December 19, 2022
x Starting tomorrow I'll post a daily Ukraine news update video here. Hope you'll like them 🤞🇺🇦
(random acts of kindness will also be in video format, as these stories are a bit long for however many characters we're allowed on here) pic.twitter.com/JvobsnKAzQ — Igor Novikov (@igornovikov) December 18, 2022
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/18/2142379/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-299-Ukraine-does-not-want-to-invade-Moscow-Zelenskyy
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