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Ukraine Invasion Day 297: one of fifty Patriot missile batteries is being deployed. [1]
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Date: 2022-12-16
Noting that 4800+ M1A1 Abrams tanks have been built, the peace negotiations should escalate soon, even as betting is against it happening for many more months. Deploying Patriot missiles is not an escalation unless flak jackets and helmets are offensive weapons. The three day campaign is now at 10 months.
Another massive attack on 🇺🇦 cities, energy, residential buildings. Two questions: 1. Anyone else want to propose a "peaceful settlement" to allow Putin to save face? 2. Should we further slow down the process of transferring Missile Defence in order to "prevent escalation"?
Russian strikes continue to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian civilians but are not improving the ability of Russian forces to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine. Ukraine’s state electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo stated that restoration of electricity may be delayed by the December 16 strikes and announced a state of emergency aimed at electricity market suppliers.[5] Ukrenergo added that Ukraine’s United Energy System had to cut more than 50% of energy consumption as a result of the strikes.[6]
Russian forces conducted their ninth large-scale missile campaign against critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 and carried out one of the largest missile attacks on Kyiv to date. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny stated that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 of 76 Russian missiles, of which 72 were cruise missiles of the Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kh-22 types, and four guided missiles of the Kh-59 and Kh-31P types.[1] The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed 37 of 40 missiles targeting Kyiv.[2] Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian missiles struck nine energy infrastructure facilities and some residential buildings in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[3] Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces launched most of their missiles from the Black and Caspian seas and the Engels airfield in Saratov Oblast.[4] Russian forces are likely intensifying their strikes on Kyiv to stir up societal discontent in the capital, but these missile attacks are unlikely to break Ukrainian will.
92.5% of Russian missiles were shot down by Ukrainian 🇺🇦 Air defense over Kyiv. Of the 40 missiles that targeted Kyiv, 37 were shot down
At least eight people were killed and 23 injured by Ukrainian shelling in the Russian-controlled Luhansk region of Ukraine, Russia’s state Tass news agency reported on Friday, citing an unidentified source in the emergency services. The shelling destroyed a building in the village of Lantrativka and some people were trapped under rubble, Tass said. The head of the “people’s militia” in Luhansk also claimed there were civilian casualties as a result of Ukrainian shelling on the town of Svatove on Friday morning.
The Kyiv city administration said Ukraine’s capital had withstood “one of the biggest rocket attacks” launched by Russian forces since they invaded Ukraine nearly 10 months ago. The administration said Ukrainian air defence forces shot down 37 of “about 40” that entered the city’s airspace. There were water disruptions in every district, Klitschko said.
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said late on Friday that just a third of its residents had both heat and water and 40% electricity . The metro system - a crucial transport artery - remained shut down, he added.
The mass strikes appeared to be a continuation of the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s state energy company Ukrenergo said energy consumption had fallen by 50% as a result of the attacks. The company said Russia had hit thermal power plants, hydroelectric plants and substations of main networks. Ukrenergo said it will take longer to repair the national grid and restore power than it did after previous Russian missile attacks, with priority given to “critical infrastructure facilities”.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia still had enough missiles for several more massive strikes and he again urged western allies to supply Kyiv with more and better air defence systems. “Whatever the rocket worshippers from Moscow are counting on, it still won’t change the balance of power in this war,” he said in an evening address.
Russia fired more than 70 missiles at Ukraine on Friday in one of its biggest attacks since the start of the war , knocking out power in the second-biggest city and forcing Kyiv to implement emergency blackouts nationwide, Ukrainian officials said. Three people were killed when an apartment block was hit in central Kryvyi Rih and another died in shelling in Kherson in the south, they said. Russian-installed officials in occupied eastern Ukraine said 12 people had died by Ukrainian shelling.
Russian forces continue to build defensive fortifications along the Svatove-Kreminna line as of December 16. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on December 16 that Russian forces have continued to construct extensive defensive lines along the front line in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Svatove.[27] The UK MoD reported that the Russian defensive lines follow traditional entrenchment methods, which are likely to be vulnerable to modern, precision indirect strikes.[28]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x did they burn all their own history books? Maybe we should air drop some over — Nick Sandoval (@NickSan60149375) December 16, 2022
x West of Ozarianivka 48.452791, 37.936588 13 km south-south-west of Bakhmut @TuiteroMartin and @blinzka
Of the 35 - 40 soldiers, 17 were definitely killed. How many wounded is unknown. The trenches were not saved. The stronghold lost its ability to defend. It was not the WWI/WWII pic.twitter.com/j7C7EvsAL0 — Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) December 16, 2022
When it was first sent into Ukraine, the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, stationed in northwestern Russia near its border with NATO-leaning Finland, had more experience, newer equipment, and better training than many other Russian units, The Washington Post reported on Friday.
But despite these advantages, the 200th suffered greatly in the months of combat that would follow.
Shortly after the invasion, units belonging to the 200th were attacked and ambushed, leaving numerous soldiers dead and equipment abandoned, according to the report.
The 200th spent the following weeks defending positions in the Kharkiv region and fending off Ukrainian attacks. By late May, documents obtained by the Post revealed, hundreds of soldiers had been lost in Ukraine from two battalion tactical groups. Several months later, the 200th was routed during Ukraine's lightning counteroffensive in the northeast Kharkiv region.
One soldier serving in the 200th after being drafted as part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's September mobilization order told The Post this month that "the unit is in a state of decay" and he was given "painted helmets from 1941 and vests without plates." Western officials told the paper that the brigade was riddled with dysfunction,. hindering its combat capabilities.
"Nothing of that brigade is left," Col. Pavlo Fedosenko, the commander of Ukraine's 92nd Mechanized Brigade, told The Post in a recent interview. "It's completely wiped out." One senior European intelligence official told the paper that "it will take years to rebuild the 200th" because it lost so many soldiers and officers.
[...]
More recently, the reconnaissance company of the GRU's 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade experienced substantial casualties during the battle for Lyman, as Ukraine pressed ahead with its blitz-style counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.
news.yahoo.com/...
x brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 113th brigades of the territorial defense.
At the same time,about 200 wounded are in the medical facilities of the city.They are periodically rotated,sent to hospitals in Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk and receive new batches in return. — whoami (@copemuch) December 16, 2022 x "The troops, like others in the invading force, were led to believe they were deploying to take part in drills, according to Ukrainian officials citing accounts of captured 200th soldiers. Only at 3 a.m. on Feb. 24 were they told, 'There will be shooting,' an official said." pic.twitter.com/Op8xHAd7Q9 — Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 17, 2022 x Ukrainian artillery works heavily around Bakhmut hitting Russian units hard all day and night.
Recently precision strikes were carried out on Ozarianivka resulting in many losses. — WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) December 16, 2022 Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast) Russian forces conducted counterattacks in the Svatove and Kreminna areas on December 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove) and Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove).[22] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 17km north of Kreminna near Ploshchanka and Chervonopopivka and within 12km south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast.[23] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces continued fighting in positional battles on the western outskirts of Bilohorivka.[24] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces also destroyed Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups southwest of Kreminna near Terny, Donetsk Oblast, and Dibrova, Luhansk Oblast.[25] ISW previously assessed that Russian forces are likely conducting spoiling counterattacks in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblasts to preempt Ukrainian forces from increasing the pace of their eastern counteroffensive as conditions become more conducive for mechanized maneuver warfare in the winter.[26] www.understandingwar.org/...
https://t.co/nN9B9E97RY Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on December 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut; within 26km northeast of Bakhmut near Vyimka, Yakovlivka , Soledar, and Bakhmutske; and within 21km south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, Opytne, Ozarianivka, and Druzhba.[32] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces completely cleared Yakovlivka, which will help Russian forces to conduct assaults in the direction of Soledar.[33] Geolocated footage posted on December 16 shows Wagner Group units operating in central Yakovlivka, supporting this Russian claim.[34] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces consider holding Bakhmut a priority task over fears that losing the settlement would damage the current image of Ukrainian forces.[35] Geolocated footage posted on December 16 shows that Russian forces have made marginal advances west of Ozaranivka.[36] Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 17km north of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka and Oleksandropil, and within 37km south of Avdiivka near Nevelske, Marinka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailiivka.[37] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted an assault near Vesele intending to cut a section of the N-20 highway.[38] Another Russian milblogger claimed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Peoples Militia's "Somali" and "Sparta" battalions and the 11th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps conducted assaults southwest of Avdiivka in the direction of Nataylove and Karlivka.[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are focusing their efforts on capturing Ukrainian-held territory around Marinka.[40] www.understandingwar.org/...
https://t.co/nN9B9E97RY Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian forces continued to undertake defensive measures on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces deployed personnel from Krasnodar Krai to strengthen defensive lines and security for water supply facilities in Kherson Oblast and Crimea, such as the North Crimean Canal.[43] Sentinel-1 imagery also showed that Russian forces have accumulated a large amount of military equipment in Medvedivka in northeastern Crimea.[44] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Militia claimed to hold defensive positions in the area of the Kakhovka reservoir in Zaporizhia Oblast.[45] Russian forces continued to shell Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[46] Social media footage showed the aftermath of Russian artillery fire on residential buildings in Kherson City, and geolocated footage showed Russian forces mistakenly striking their former air-defense positions near the T2207 highway that Ukrainian forces previously destroyed in August.[47] Zaporizhia Oblast Office of General Prosecutor reported that Russian forces launched 21 missiles from S-300 air-defense systems at Zaporizhzhia City and surrounding settlements, which damaged the premises of an unspecified piece of critical infrastructure.[48]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x US DOD is unlikely to be deterred. If anything, this reaction from RUS validates the move to send the system
Last week RUS said it won’t use nuclear weapons 1st despite months of threatening rhetoric. RUS’s messaging is schizophrenic & it makes them look weak
One trick pony — OPSEC? (@GuineaZoo_OPSEC) December 15, 2022
trouble in paradise:
x Norway’s most senior top court judge sent angry messages to his Ukrainian wife in which he claimed “people from Ukraine are from hell” and wished for the country to be “deleted from the map”
https://t.co/QqhwGntCCw — Mast Malang (@MastMal26616807) December 16, 2022
x As I outlined earlier this year in @WarOnTheRocks, 🇷🇺's own aspirations for information warfare - including both psychological and technological effects - are very lofty. By that doctrinal yardstick, it's tough to see it as a success in 🇺🇦. /2
https://t.co/lrnYiVXq3H — Gavin Wildе (@
[email protected]) (@gavinbwilde) December 12, 2022
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