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Ukraine Invasion Day 293: we all want to "just go to the seacoast and have a beer." [1]
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Date: 2022-12-12
Elon Musk’s rules for Twitter violence incitement might be problematic for Ukraine-Russia war coverage.
In an interview with David Letterman, Zelensky said he believes Russia's war ends if President Vladimir Putin dies. When asked about plans after the war, he said, "I will be frank – I really want to go to the sea. Just go to the seacoast and have a beer."
https://t.co/uazB4xxnL2
Leaders of the Group of Seven nations are meeting virtually on Monday to discuss the possibility of tougher sanctions against Russia and more assistance for Ukraine.
Fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine remains intense. One Ukrainian official claimed over the weekend that Russian mercenaries belonging to the shady “Wagner Group,” a Russian state-sanctioned private military group fighting in Ukraine, suffered heavy losses after the hotel they were using as their headquarters was hit by Ukrainian forces.
The recently liberated city of Kherson in southern Ukraine has come under what one official described as “massive fire” on Monday. Meanwhile significant parts of Ukraine continue to struggle with power shortages after more Russian attacks on energy infrastructure at the weekend. A drone strike on Odesa left 1.5 million people without power.
The UK MoD assessed that Russia still likely aims to retain control over all its occupied Ukrainian territory, supporting ISW’s recent assessment that the Kremlin likely maintains its maximalist objectives in Ukraine. [30] The UK MoD assessed that Russian military leadership still intends to make additional advances within Donetsk Oblast but that current Russian military strategy is highly unlikely to allow Moscow to accomplish that goal.[31] ISW previously assessed that Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s December 8 statements defining Russian territorial goals as controlling all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts remain maximalist given his restatement of Putin’s February 24 goals of “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine, which would inhibit Ukraine’s ability to resist future Russian military or subversion campaigns.[32]
Not that we are complaining. But in the future, we ask that the russians be more careful when unloading military equipment. And to remember that every armored vehicle is potential lend-lease equipment for #UAarmy pic.twitter.com/cg6q4CGhRB
The Defense of Ukraine's Twitter account, which has a blue check and 1.7 million followers, shows a tank getting yanked from a train by another tank via tethered device. The snowy conditions indicate the harsh winter settling.
Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives near the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and support limited offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast. An independent Ukrainian analytical organization, the Center for Defense Strategies, noted on December 12 that the Russians are centralizing and systematizing the command and control of Western Military District (WMD) troops in the Kharkiv-Luhansk direction.[1] The Center noted that the 20th Combined Arms Army of the WMD is currently operating in this area in three general groupings: elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division near Svatove; elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division on the Kreminna-Rubizhne line; and elements of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps in northwestern Luhansk Oblast near Troitske.[2] The Center also reported that elements of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps (troops of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, respectively), 76th Air Assault Division and 106th Airborne Division, and up to three BARS (Combat Reserve) detachments, amounting up to 15 to 17 battalions, are concentrated in this general area.[3] These troop concentrations are likely significantly degraded and understrength.
ISW has previously observed WMD elements operating throughout Kharkiv Oblast prior to the sweeping Ukrainian counteroffensives in September that ultimately drove Russian troops back to the current line along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border.[4] Russian and Ukrainian reporting has additionally suggested that there is a high concentration of mobilized personnel operating on this axis, likely in order to fill gaps in WMD units that have been degraded over the course of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives in northeastern Ukraine.[5] BARS-13 and BARS-16 detachments have been particularly active along the Svatove-Kreminna line.[6] Elements of the Central Military District (CMD) have previously been observed in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.[7] The observation that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) are operating in Luhansk Oblast suggests that they redeployed away from the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast, where ISW previously reported they were operating prior to the massive Russian withdrawal from the right bank.[8] The current force composition of the Russian contingent in eastern Kherson is unclear. Elements of the Russian Southern Military District (SMD) likely maintain a presence in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[9]
Wagner Group fighters, supported by elements of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps, are largely responsible for driving offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Bakhmut and the western outskirts of Donetsk City. ISW has previously reported the role of Wagner Group forces in securing minor gains around Bakhmut over the last few months.[10] Troops of the 6th Regiment of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps have been active northeast of Bakhmut in the Soledar area.[11] ISW has additionally observed the prevalence of groupings of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 1st Army Corps in the Donetsk City–Avdiivka area, particularly the “Sparta” and “Somalia” battalions, which have claimed gains along the western outskirts of Donetsk City in areas such as Pisky, Vodiane, and Marinka. DNR elements have notably been active in this area since 2014. Russian sources reported that DNR troops, elements of the Russian Eastern Military District (EMD), and the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and 40th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet were responsible for costly offensive operations southwest of Donetsk City in the Vuhledar-Pavlivka area in November.[12]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on December 11 and 12. An unnamed US military official stated that Wagner Group and Russian forces are engaged in intense battles for Bakhmut and committing significant resources to maintain the pace but noted that Ukrainian forces “continue to hold the line.”[45] Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces have changed their tactical force composition in the Bakhmut direction by switching from using company and battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to using assault units to perform purely offensive tasks.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut and settlements northeast of the city in Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Pidhorodne, on December 11 and 12.[47] Russian sources claimed that Wagner forces stormed Pidhorodne to partially encircle Bakhmut on December 12.[48] Geolocated footage showed a destroyed railway bridge over the E40 (M-03) highway northwest of Pidhorone, which Russian sources claimed to be one of two remaining main ground lines of communications (GLOCs) into Bakhmut.[49] Russian sources claimed Ukrainian forces blew up the bridge to create an artificial barricade on the E40 towards Slovyansk.[50] A Russian source also claimed that Wagner assault detachments established control over two former Ukrainian platoon positions on the Bakhmut-Soledar line approaching a highway connecting the settlements, likely referring to the T1302 highway.[51] Russian sources also claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced near Opytne (3km south of Bakhmut) and that fighting is ongoing in the area.[52] A Russian source claimed that Wagner Group forces launched attacks from the Andriivka area (9km southwest of Bakhmut) against unspecified settlements and claimed that fighting is ongoing east of Bakhmut, noting that Ukrainian forces are not retreating from the city.[53]Another Russian source claimed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces are attempting to advance east towards Toretsk (23km southwest of Bakhmut) with artillery support.[54]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Svatove in order to regain lost positions on December 11 and 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks 15km west of Svatove near Andriivka and 15km northwest of Svatove near Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka between December 11 and 12.[33] Geolocated footage posted on December 11 and 12 shows a Ukrainian tank destroying a Russian tank from positions in the western part of Novoselivske, suggesting that Ukrainian troops maintain control of part of the settlement despite previous Russian claims that Russian troops had taken full control in the prior weeks.[34] A Russian source posted footage of Russian troops launching TOS-1A thermobaric rockets from positions near Kuzemivka, 11km northwest of Svatove.[35] Geolocated footage posted on December 10 additionally shows a Russian heavy equipment transport truck carrying a T-90M battle tank just north of Luhansk City, about 118km southeast of Svatove.[36] This footage is consistent with previous reports that Russian troops are using Luhansk City as a transportation hub for equipment destined for the Svatove-Kreminna front.[37]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Explosion reported at strategic bridge near occupied Melitopol. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that a bridge near the Russian-occupied city in the southeast Zaporizhzhia Oblast, used by the Moscow troops for transporting military equipment, exploded.
x Between Melitopil and Konstantynivka bridge was attacked. According to Russian propagandist in the video, strike fell on bridge supports. As a result, bridge became a bit wobbly.
Also, bridge is part of M14/E58 highway, which is an important part of Russian land route to Crimea. pic.twitter.com/37qylE9rhr — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 12, 2022
x /5
But on the other hand, if we assume that something will happen to the rest of the bridges that are suitable for heavy traffic, then given the foggy state of Crimean bridge. Russians in southern Ukraine including Crimea, may experience some logistical difficulties — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 12, 2022
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces continued to strengthen defensive positions in Kherson Oblast amid poor weather conditions on December 11 and 12. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that there is a heavy fog in Kherson Oblast with low visibility and icy roads, making road transportation difficult.[66] Ukrainian Tavria Defense Force Grouping Spokesperson Yevheny Yerin stated that Russian forces are redeploying units in the Kherson direction, strengthening defensive lines, and conducting sabotage and reconnaissance operations.[67] Yerin stated that Russian forces aim to establish observation posts on islands in the Dnipro River delta southwest of Kherson City.[68] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian forces continued to shell areas on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River on December 11 and 12, including Kherson City and its environs.[69]
Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and logistics hubs along critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine. Geolocated footage shows the aftermath of a strike against a restaurant-hotel complex in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast overnight on December 10–11, which Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said Russian forces used as a base for the Federal Security Services (FSB) and to quarter soldiers.[70] Fedorov also stated that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian checkpoint and logistics hub in Bohdanivka and a radar station in Semenivka, both northeast of Melitopol, and two Russian military bases in Polohy and Maiske just south of the frontline.[71] Fedorov added that these strikes collectively killed dozens of Russian military personnel and wounded over 200 servicemen.[72] The Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration stated on December 11 that Ukrainian strikes in an unspecified area of Zaporizhia Oblast injured over 150 Russian military personnel.[73] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck areas along the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, including Oleshky and Hola Prystan, and rear areas in eastern Kherson Oblast including Skadovsk, Chaplynka, and Radensk on December 11 and 12.[74]
x Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 "Peppa" sporting the characteristic Ukrainian Falcons-esque paint scheme.
Appears to be performing a SEAD mission with US-integrated AGM-88 HARMs. pic.twitter.com/bCXOGW1NXd — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) December 13, 2022
x Russian tank identification guide updated with the latest Russian tank model.
No it's not the Armata, but the T-62M Obr 2021 instead.
https://t.co/a361Im9hxw — Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) November 30, 2022
x Russia Is Attacking Poland with Wiper Ware - Russia is expanding #cyberops as it endures mounting battlefield losses. putin #hackers have increased attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, both cyber-attacks and w kinetic ops.
https://t.co/m3k4BF1e34 @AEI @klonkitchen — JBANC chatter (@JBANCchatter) December 12, 2022
x Kremlin cover-up: the ruins of Mariupol Drama Theatre, thanks to Russians...
Source: @Biz_Ukraine_Mag pic.twitter.com/RBzhR3nuU6 — UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) December 12, 2022
x The russian world at its worst. The Mariupol theater that was destroyed by a russian bomb together with hundreds of people in the spring is now covered in pictures of russian cultural fugures. The culture facade is used to conceal the distruction of people and culture. pic.twitter.com/ytCWLo5UK7 — Volodymyr Kulyk (@VolodymyrKulyk4) December 12, 2022
[END]
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