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Ukraine Invasion Day 292: the costs of war continue to rise [1]
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Date: 2022-12-11
The war remains about people and not weapons or even over- the-counter tech applied to even older WWII weapons. Wagner PMC in the Bakmut area has been targeting the Mozart NGO supporting Ukrainian civilian evacuations. The usual disinformation milibloggers have tried to frame the situation as an “armed conflict” between the two groups, when the real battles are between regular units of Russia and Ukraine.
Time's Person of the Year is actually split between Zelenskyy and the "Spirit of Ukraine," the latter which is defined by Time as as "Representing the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian resistance, as well as foreign aid to Ukraine."
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, said that Russia is not only fighting Ukraine in Kyiv but also around the world. “It is much more difficult for us – our enemy is not only entrenched in the Kyiv province of our native ‘Little Russia’. He is in Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, New Zealand…,”
Belarus is now receiving greater pressure to support the Russian war effort, but is unlikely to do so because it would also likely bring down the Lukashenko government.
x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 11
Losses include 10 drones
TODAY'S REPORT:
380 soldiers killed ⬆
7-day average: 427 ⬇
21 equipment lost ⬆
7-day average: 34 ➡
VISUALLY CONFIRMED:
3.25x losses to date ⬇
2.86x counteroffensive ⬇
📈
https://t.co/VRGwfBDFYO pic.twitter.com/UpMn2LslnV — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦@
[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) December 11, 2022
Ukraine launched fresh strikes on Russian positions in the southern city of Melitopol and in Russian-occupied Crimea over the weekend.
The long-awaited strikes follow the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kherson city region in recent weeks, putting Crimea within striking distance.
Explosions were reported across Melitopol, in the Crimean cities of Sevastopol and Simferopol, and at a Russian military barracks in Sovietsky.
Russian media reported at least 20 missiles struck Melitopol on Saturday and Sunday.
Russian-installed authorities in Ukraine reported that two were killed in the strikes and a further ten were injured.
x 🧵 Over 200 TikTok Kadyrov's Chechen terrorists killed at their base in occupied #Melitopol in #Ukraine. Appears to be #HIMARS precision strike. Critical for Ukraine to liberate Melitopol for operations in Crimea. pic.twitter.com/eIjiXfWkTi — Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) December 11, 2022
An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, described the importance of Melitopol as a key logistics hub for Russian positions in southern Ukraine.
“All logistics linking the Russian forces on the eastern part of the Kherson region and all the way to the Russian border near Mariupol is carried out through it,” Oleksiy Arestovych said, adding that if Melitopol falls, so does the “entire defense line all the way to Kherson.”
If Russia loses its entire line of defense in the region, it could open up the Crimean peninsula to new attacks. Russian forces know this has become a possibility, and in recent weeks, videos have emerged showing Russian troops digging trenches on the peninsula in preparation for a Ukrainian counter offensive designed to take back control of the territory Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed in 2014.
Along with reports that Russian forces have begun withdrawing from some parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Moscow is now faced with the difficulty reality that most of the territories annexed in September are still very much contested with large sections of each territory still controlled by Ukraine.
www.19fortyfive.com/...
x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 11
56:23 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 latest addition from @Rebel44CZ (+ correction to 🇷🇺 total)
Note:
Ratios rounded to 2 decimal places from here on
VISUALLY CONFIRMED:
3.25x losses to date ⬇
2.86x counteroffensive ⬇
📈
https://t.co/8oUHJbVKIo pic.twitter.com/Ydi7fP3UyO — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦@
[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) December 11, 2022
x #Ukraine: Rare footage of tank-on-tank combat from Novoselivske, #Luhansk Oblast: A Ukrainian T-64BV of the 92nd Mechanized Brigade destroyed a Russian T-72B-series tank with a single shot. pic.twitter.com/PUjJxe9HyR — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) December 11, 2022
x GeoConfirmed.
"Ukrainian T-64BV probed Russian T-72B3 with direct fire in Novoselivske."
49.525919, 37.956743
GeoLocated by @TuiteroMartin and @Noobieshunta_
https://t.co/QsEEepFc0Z — GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) December 11, 2022
x As can be seen here, the level of shit they are in is accumulating for the RU forces in Kreminna. A UA liberation of Zhytlivka opens up for an envelopment of Kreminna and will most likely force RU to withdraw. pic.twitter.com/M4TSBOjENW — Def Mon (@DefMon3) December 11, 2022
Old weapons are being dredged out of European armories to aid Ukraine’s military in its struggle to repel Russia’s invasion and withstand the onslaught of missiles and kamikaze drones plummeting down on Ukrainian cities. And Ukrainians are apparently finding inventive ways to affordably improve their effectiveness using commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technology.
The social media account Ukraine Weapons Tracker first drew attention to photos of an air defense training exercise posted by Eastern Command of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces on Dec. 7. showing a 20-millimeter Zastava M75 anti-aircraft gun visibly fitted with two CCTV cameras made by Chinese company Hikvision to serve as thermal and daylight sights. The cameras send their video output to a consumer tablet mounted on a flexible arm stand made by Dallas-based company North Bayou for easy viewing by the gunner.
www.forbes.com/...
x #Ukraine: UA TDF forces recently showed off improvised additions to a recently delivered Yugo Zastava M75 20x110mm anti-aircraft cannon.
The M75 had both thermal and conventional/IR optics added, which are actually COTS Hikvision CCTV cameras! A tablet is used for the display. pic.twitter.com/4zEOzh7vXp — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) December 7, 2022
These are all components which a civilian could buy online with relative ease. On U.S. Amazon, the North Bayou arm costs $29.90 dollars, while various Hikvision CCTV cameras of similar-looking configuration can be bought in the low hundreds to low thousands of dollars. (Hikvision, which is state-owned, is under U.S. sanction due to security concerns and its role surveilling ethnic minorities in internment camps in Xinjiang province.)
The cannon itself, first spotted in Ukrainian service late in October, is a Yugoslavian license-built copy of the Spanish Hispano-Suiza HS.804 automatic anti-aircraft cannon used in World War II. Its 110-millimeter-length shells are effective out to roughly a mile, and can use 10-shell magazines or 20-round ammo drums. Likely, these and similar Zastava M55 cannons were donated by or purchased from Croatia or Slovenia.
www.forbes.com/...
rail network
Russian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Belarusian leaders including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko sometimes play along with these information operations. The purpose of these efforts is to pin Ukrainian forces at the Belarusian border to prevent them from reinforcing Ukrainian operations elsewhere in the theater. Belarus is extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future whatever the course of these information operations. A Belarusian intervention in Ukraine, moreover, would not be able to do more than draw Ukrainian ground forces away from other parts of the theater temporarily given the extremely limited effective combat power at Minsk’s disposal.
The Kremlin’s efforts to pressure Belarus to support the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine are a part of a long-term effort to cement further control over Belarus. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin intensified pressure on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to formalize Belarus’ integration into the Union State following the Belarusian 2020 and 2021 protests. [1] Russia particularly sought to establish permanent military basing in Belarus and direct control of the Belarusian military. [2] Russia has routinely tried to leverage its influence over Belarusian security and military affairs to place pressure on Belarus to support its invasion of Ukraine. [3] ISW assessed that Russian Minister of Defense Army General Sergei Shoigu meet with Lukashenko on December 3 to further strengthen bilateral security ties - likely in the context of the Russian-Belarusian Union State - and increase Russian pressure on Belarus to further support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [4]
The Belarusian regime’s support for the Russian invasion has made Belarus a cobelligerent in the war in Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offered Belarusian territory to Russian forces for the initial staging of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. [5] Belarusian territory offered critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the Russian Armed Forces in their failed drive on Kyiv and their subsequent withdrawal from northern Ukraine. [6] ISW has previously assessed that Belarus materially supports Russian offensives in Ukraine and provides Russian forces with secure territory and airspace from which to attack Ukraine with high-precision weapons. [7]
Belarusian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely degrading the Belarusian military’s material capacity to conduct conventional military operations of its own. The Belarusian open-source Hajun Project reported on November 14 that the Belarusian military transferred 122 T-72A tanks to Russian forces, likely under the guise of sending them for modernization work in the Russian Federation. [8] The Hajun Project reported on November 17 that Belarus transferred 211 pieces of military equipment to Russian Armed Forces, including 98 T-72A tanks and 60 BMP-2s. [9] The confirmed transfer of 98 T-72 tanks represents roughly 18 percent of the Belarusian inventory of active main battle tanks, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ 2021 Military Balance report. [10] It is unclear if the 98 transferred tanks are part of the 122 tanks designated for modernization or if they are a separate collection of equipment. Neither is it clear that the tanks sent to Russia were part of the active Belarusian tank park or vehicles held in storage or reserve. Belarus lacks capabilities to produce its own armored fighting vehicles making the transfer of this equipment to Russian forces both a current and a likely long-term constraint on Belarusian material capacities commit mechanized forces to the fighting in Ukraine. [11]
Belarus is also likely drawing down its inventory of artillery munitions through munitions transfers to the Russian military. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 3 that Belarus has been transferring 122mm and 152mm artillery ammunition to Russian Armed Forces throughout October and November. [12] The GUR reported on November 17 that Belarusian authorities are interested in establishing a closed cycle of production for these artillery shells and that Belarusian officials planned to meet with Iranian officials to discuss such closed production cycles of artillery munitions. [13] The GUR also reported on October 11 that a train with 492 tons of ammunition from the Belarusian 43rd Missile and Ammunition Storage Arsenal in Gomel arrived at the Kirovske Railway Station in Crimea on an unspecified date. [14]
Belarusian officials are likely trying to conceal the amount of military equipment they are sending to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine. The Hajun Project reported on November 5 that the Belarusian State Security Committee, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the Belarusian Special Forces have instituted enhanced protection and surveillance of rail infrastructure and have banned trains carrying military equipment from passing through Belarusian cities. [15] Belarusian authorities likely are trying to prevent Western and Ukrainian intelligence agencies from fully assessing that extent of the Belarusian military equipment transfers to Russia. Belarus may be sending more extensive amounts of military equipment to Russian forces. Belarusian authorities may also be attempting to hide the extent of the transfers in order to mitigate the possible backlash against Lukashenko‘s degradation of the country’s military capacity and subservience to Moscow.
understandingwar.org/...
[END]
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