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“Am I thinking correctly?” [1]
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Date: 2022-12-11
China is so big and has so much economic potential that its global neighbors can become paralyzed with fear. China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy in about ten years. That kind of power in a country that is consolidating its dictatorship and building its military could lead to panic.
I had a long talk with my friend, “Josh”, the other day that added some perspective. “Josh” was born and raised in China; has run some large businesses for American companies over there; owns a small company there today. He’s a US citizen and lives here now.
His thoughts are just one person’s opinion. This is certainly not an “American Economic Review” study. But he had some insights that are worth paying attention to.
b3LLsb33r: How do you feel about what’s going on in China today?
“Josh”: It’s very sad for the Chinese people.
b3LLsb33r: Anything in particular? The Covid lockdowns? Lack of freedom?
“Josh”: It’s going to take a long time, if ever, for them to rise out of poverty and extreme inequality.
b3LLsb33r: But their economy has grown miraculously and it’s supposed to continue.
“Josh”: Economic growth has slowed dramatically in the last few years.
b3LLsb33r: But that’s only because of the Covid lockdowns, right? The growth will resume soon.
“Josh”: The Covid lockdowns were an excuse for a more fundamental change coming from leadership. Everyone over there has a cellphone with their Covid status. Red means you’re locked down. Yellow means you can’t use public transit. Green means you’re clear. But it’s part of a larger effort to increase control over the population.
The Chinese economy took off like a rocket in the 1970s when business was liberated. Recently the communist party has tightened its thumb over both businesses and individuals. The big GDP gains of the past will not return.
b3LLsb33r: Are you saying that business and personal freedom are related?
“Josh”: Economic growth depends on innovation. You can’t have innovation without a certain amount of personal freedom. The situation in China now is that leadership says, “Innovate!” Then the worker must turn around and ask, “Am I thinking correctly?”
Innovation is dead in that environment.
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