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Pandemic Observations -- December 9, US States & Canadian Provinces (Deciphering the Data): [1]
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Date: 2022-12-10
The Road Ahead?
A diary by Mark Hennon that made to the Rec list yesterday illustrates the potential problem of misinterpreting apparent trends from too few data points, particularly when those data points aren’t fully contextualized — in this case from the NYT's Coronavirus Tracker. Perhaps the scariest stats presented were that 1,500 Americans supposedly died from Covid-19 on a single day, December 8, and that new cases nearly tripled from Monday to Thursday. Fortunately, neither is even remotely close to being accurate.
The first thing to note, as a number of others quickly pointed out, is that very little new data is generally reported over the weekends from most states. Indeed, a significant number of states no longer bother to update their data on even a weekly basis, so day-to-day differences are largely meaningless outside the weekly (or better, biweekly) averages.
Second, while new cases are usually reported within the same week as they test positive (and new cases generally refer only to those actually reported by doctors, ERs, and hospitals), new deaths only reflect those deaths that were reported by the various collection agencies; and since it will often take 2-3 or more weeks for any particular death to be registered via an official death certificate, these daily or weekly death stats are clearly a lagging indicator.
Third, occasionally there will be significant revisions to individual states’ cumulative death counts and/or caseloads, and this tends to happen more frequently following a major holiday like Thanksgiving (or Christmas and New Year's coming up), and we certainly saw this in spades this week with upward revisions of 100+ deaths in each of CA, MI, NC, and TN, along with lesser revisions in a number of other states. Likewise, CA also revised its cumulative caseload upward by nearly 100k. This is the real reason the NYT’s weekly averages for both new cases and deaths appear as high as they do this week.
This is not to say that new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths aren’t all heading higher at this point — they certainly seem to be, but not nearly at the truly alarming rates the out of context NYT numbers would suggest. And while our current average daily death toll of ~400 is certainly nothing to celebrate (the US still accounts for more than 25% of the world’s officially reported new Covid-19 deaths, and has done so for many months now), we haven’t seen anything remotely approaching 1,500 since the height of the Omicron tsunami back in January and February.
Note that I have included the various state-level revisions in this week’s tables, along with the caseload revision at the national level, but I can’t easily revise the national weekly death toll number, so it remains larger than it should be. The key to look for going forward is if next week’s death toll is significantly larger than the ~2,400/week average of the past two weeks, though the absence of any new data from GA, MO, OK, and a number of smaller states may confound that if they all do a data dump next week.
US States & Canadian Provinces: December 3-9 New Deaths 7-Day D/1M 7-Day Deaths Weekly Change 14.Day Change Change fr Max Canada USA NN ME VT AR PR NS MA DE MB NC PA NY MN WI NM CO IN AZ VA MT WA NV UT AB MD NJ SD NB NL BC QC OH IA ID MI NH KY WV AL FL ON IL OR MS HI LA CT KS SC TX TN CA GA MO OK NE RI ND WY SK DC AK US.Hos 7.0 9.3 44.4 37.9 17.6 14.9 14.7 14.5 12.5 12.3 11.7 11.2 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.4 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.3 2.9 2.6 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 263 3,072 8 51 11 45 50 14 86 12 16 118 140 212 61 62 22 60 66 71 81 10 69 27 28 38 52 75 7 6 4 38 63 86 22 12 67 9 28 11 30 121 81 67 22 15 7 22 16 13 22 85 18 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,740 -6% 65% 0% 2450% 1100% 61% 52% 27% -5% 1200% 0% 97% 21% -16% 11% 107% 22% 94% 154% 69% -11% 233% 25% 350% 180% -5% -10% -7% 133% 0% 33% 9% 26% -7% 22% -29% -72% -47% -35% -67% 43% 15% -27% -27% -39% 67% 40% 69% 7% -41% 450% 107% -79% -35% -100% -100% 0% -100% 0% 0% 0% -100% 0% 0% 7% 3% 7% 700% 430% 57% 192% 48% 9% -6% -50% 100% 123% -8% 31% 7% 28% 60% -16% -26% 18% 28% -13% 727% -25% 58% 16% 43% 68% -44% 50% -13% 9% -20% 22% -15% 107% -22% 13% -26% -21% 122% -48% 3% 15% -27% 9% -25% -20% -30% 13% -45% 7% 44% -28% -79% 21% -100% -79% 0% 0% -100% -40% -100% 0% 26% -78% -87% -89% -61% -50% -85% -72% -48% -91% -90% -84% -85% -91% -97% -87% -89% -91% -88% -90% -94% -93% -92% -77% -92% -80% -76% -88% -97% -96% -93% -78% -70% -91% -94% -95% -94% -93% -90% -94% -95% -97% -95% -81% -95% -89% -96% -91% -95% -98% -97% -96% -96% -98% -98% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -86% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62
D/1M = New Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population over prior 7 days
C/1M = New Covid-19 cases per 1 million population over prior 7 days
Weekly Change = Net change from previous week's stats
14-Day Change = Net Change from previous 14-day period
Change fr Max = Net change from week of peak deaths or new cases
Bold = States/Provs experiencing significant upward movement in cases and/or deaths
US.Hosp = Serious/Critical cases
NN = Navajo Nation (population estimate 180,000)
USA data derived from worldometer, Canadian data from Canada Covid-19 Interactive Data
US States & Canadian Provinces: December 3-9 New Cases 7-Day C/1M 7-Day Cases Weekly Change 14.Day Change Change fr Max Canada USA NN PR UT NY AZ NM NJ IN IL IA TN KS CO WI OH NV SC KY ND MA SD OR DE MI VA AL AR CT MS MN NC PA MT TX MD WV HI LA ID WA ME NH FL NB QC VT CA NS ON NL AB MB BC GA MO OK NE RI WY SK DC AK 392 989 2,850 2,810 2,363 2,244 2,196 2,021 1,893 1,713 1,689 1,544 1,464 1,461 1,460 1,421 1,374 1,371 1,308 1,287 1,268 1,261 1,231 1,216 1,193 1,192 1,189 1,184 1,154 1,141 1,135 1,127 1,107 1,089 1,060 1,049 1,031 983 968 958 917 852 838 838 797 771 727 675 660 554 329 318 314 206 121 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14,777 327,467 513 9,519 7,576 43,647 15,983 4,239 16,815 11,535 21,404 4,871 9,996 4,256 8,411 8,274 16,061 4,224 6,734 5,751 966 8,694 1,089 5,127 1,162 11,918 10,147 5,807 3,483 4,069 3,379 6,359 11,605 13,936 1,133 30,428 6,234 1,762 1,371 4,453 1,638 6,485 1,127 1,139 17,113 596 6,148 421 26,083 536 4,770 166 1,370 281 608 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5% -11% -7% 1% 206% 12% 23% -21% -9% 82% -13% 32% 92% 18% 12% 5% 0% 59% 122% 49% 7% 49% -2% 56% -14% 35% 8% 39% 0% -11% 230% 22% 70% 30% 23% 43% -7% -19% 35% 68% 12% 14% 4% -19% 24% 37% 15% 18% -37% 2% -17% 11% 0% -11% 23% -100% -100% 0% -100% 0% 0% -100% 0% 0% 18% 21% 0% 47% 96% 43% 20% 18% 97% 57% 77% 44% 22% 40% -2% 33% 64% 61% 62% -10% 134% 39% 22% 22% 85% -5% 64% 109% 102% 23% 58% -1% 42% 23% 34% 89% 70% 58% 7% 50% 16% 18% 64% 75% 32% 31% 39% 59% -12% 12% -5% 21% 38% -3% 41% -37% 37% -100% 145% 0% -100% -66% -100% 0% -95% -95% -91% -86% -90% -91% -88% -89% -92% -88% -91% -89% -91% -93% -93% -94% -93% -90% -94% -93% -94% -94% -92% -91% -95% -92% -92% -95% -94% -94% -93% -93% -94% -93% -93% -94% -93% -94% -96% -96% -92% -94% -93% -95% -96% -89% -94% -97% -97% -93% -95% -96% -97% -98% -97% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% -100% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62
Following are the Power Rankings for the top 25 States/Provinces driving the pandemic in the US & Canada in terms of total new cases and new deaths during the past week:
Top 25 States/Provs: December 3-9 New Deaths 7-Day Deaths 14.Day Inc %Tot <<>> New Cases 7-Day Cases 14.Day Inc %Tot NY PA FL NC MA OH TX CA VA ON NJ AZ WA MI IL IN QC WI MN CO MD ME PR AR AB 212 140 121 118 86 86 85 84 81 81 75 71 69 67 67 66 63 62 61 60 52 51 50 45 38 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.6% 1.5% 6.4% 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 NY TX CA IL FL NJ OH AZ PA MI NC IN VA TN PR MA CO WI UT SC WA MN MD QC AL 43,647 30,428 26,083 21,404 17,113 16,815 16,061 15,983 13,936 11,918 11,605 11,535 10,147 9,996 9,519 8,694 8,411 8,274 7,576 6,734 6,485 6,359 6,234 6,148 5,807 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 12.8% 8.9% 7.6% 6.3% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%
14-Day Inc = Net increase of current 14-day numbers over prior cumulative totals
%Tot = Share of US & Canadian Totals
[END]
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