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Ukraine Invasion Day 290: Weather is weather, dirt is dirt. [1]

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Date: 2022-12-09

Dostoyevsky Street in Kyiv was renamed. Now it is Andy Warhol Street.

x ⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE, DEC 9



7-day average of Troops, APVs & Vehicles decreases



TODAY'S REPORTED LOSSES:

No daily change over 7-day average

No 7-day average increase



📈 https://t.co/iqqZLinKjK pic.twitter.com/SL7jN47Ss7 — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦@[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) December 9, 2022

x Russia is still firing 20,000 artillery rounds per day, a senior U.S. defense official estimated, while Ukraine is firing from 4,000 to 7,000 rounds daily as of November



So it’s not just one battle, Russia is still out firing Ukraine 4:1 — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) November 22, 2022



Winter has come finally to Russia's nearly 10-month-old invasion of Ukraine, with the most ferocious fighting shifting from the south to the eastern Donbas region, where Russian troops are pummeling the city of Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces are trying to consolidate their gains further to the north.

What's new at this stage in the war is cold: freezing temperatures inflict misery on troops, mechanical grief on gears and vehicles, and torpor on movement and strategy. For military observers, it's an open question whether the cold will freeze the conflict until the spring, or whether one side will be able to take advantage.

But even if the Ukrainians do manage to seize the initiative, or the Russians make additional gains, the ground war will remain a source of misery for soldiers on both sides for months.

"It does suck, it's just going to be cold and wet, and there's no doubt about it," said Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. Army general who commanded U.S. forces in Europe between 2014 and 2018. "Weather is weather, dirt is dirt. There's not much you can do with that, even with technology," he told RFE/RL.

"But it will be much worse for the Russians than the Ukrainians," he said. "I say that from a material standpoint; Russians, newly mobilized soldiers who are not properly equipped, not joining cohesive units, no leadership."

www.rferl.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on December 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Klishchiivka, about 7km southwest of Bakhmut.[38] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and a Russian source claimed that Russian forces attacked near Druzhba (18km southwest of Bakhmut) from the direction of Horlivka.[39] Multiple Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted assault operations in Bakhmut and to the north and south of Bakhmut and claimed that Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses.[40] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces struck forward Ukrainian positions in Bakhmutske (10km northeast of Bakhmut) and claimed that Russian forces continue to push through Ukrainian defenses near Spirne (30km northeast of Bakhmut).[41] A Russian source amplified claims that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 3rd Motorized Rifle Battalion has taken control of Mayorsk (20km south of Bakhmut).[42] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued routine shelling along the line of contact in this area.[43]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Marinka in Donetsk Oblast.[44] Multiple Russian sources claimed that Russian forces resumed an offensive against Marinka and stormed a fortified Ukrainian position in the settlement.[45] A Russian source shared video footage reportedly of an unsuccessful Ukrainian attack near Pisky (5km northwest of Donetsk City).[46] The source claimed that a Ukrainian convoy moved from Pervomaiske and Vodiane (7km southwest of Avdiivka) in the direction of Pisky but that the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District and the DNR “Sparta” and “Somalia” battalions repelled the attack. Another Russian source claimed that Russian forces entered southern Vodiane and advanced slightly in Pervomaiske.[47] Multiple Russian sources claimed that Russian forces began attacking Ukrainian positions in the Novomykhailivka area (36km southwest of Avdiivka) and struck Ukrainian positions in Vesele (5km north of Avdiivka).[48] Russian forces continued routine shelling along the line of contact in this area.[49]

Russian forces continued defensive operations in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts on December 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending their positions in the Novopavlivka (western Donetsk Oblast) direction.[50] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces in the direction of Volodymyrivka and Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Novodarivka, Zaporizhia Oblast.[51] A social media user shared images from the Russian “Kaskad” Battalion purporting to show Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions near Mykilske (5km southeast of Vuhledar).[52] Russian forces continued routine indirect fire along the line of contact in Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.[53]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces continued defensive operations in the Svatove area on December 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending their positions northwest of Svatove in the direction of Kupyansk.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are widely constructing defensive lines in the Svatove area.[27] A social media source posted a map purporting to show the locations of extensive Russian fortifications extending from 55km north of Svatove toward Troitske and 40km south of Svatove toward Kreminna.[28] A Russian milblogger claimed that there is a large number of Russian mobilized personnel operating in the Svatove area.[29] A social media source posted images on December 9 showing elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army operating south of Oborotnivka (19km northwest of Svatove), corroborating a December 8 report from the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) stating that elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army have likely deployed along the defensive line near Svatove.[30]

Russian forces continued to conduct counterattacks in the Kreminna area while Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations in the area on December 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[31] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces continued unspecified offensive operations west of Kreminna in the direction of Lyman.[32] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are conducting offensive operations on the Kreminna-Makiivka front and making marginal advances in the area.[33] Another milblogger claimed that there was fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces near Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna) and Ploshchanka (15km northwest of Kreminna).[34] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Ploshchanka and west in the direction of Nevske.[35] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to break through Russian positions near Lysychansk (15km southeast of Kreminna).[36] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian rear area in Pervomaisk (50km southeast of Kreminna) with HIMARS rockets.[37]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x They say that this is the first video of the #Slovenian M-55S tank in #Ukraine. The M-55S tank is a deep modernization of the Soviet T-55. According to open data, #Slovenia transferred 28 such machines to Ukraine. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #ukrainecounteroffensive pic.twitter.com/0YO8SReLf5 — Feher_Junior (@Feher_Junior) December 9, 2022

x Russian T-90S reportedly spotted in Ukraine. This is an export version. Russia faces depleting armor reserves after months of significant losses in Ukraine and apparently decided to divert to its own forces T-90S tanks that were initially bound for export. Russia owns about 200. pic.twitter.com/awzzQsgGw5 — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 7, 2022

x https://t.co/0RLv9q5rjj

Story about hero UA pilots who defended Kyiv on day one of the war. — Ukraine Front Lines (@EuromaidanPR) December 10, 2022

x "Projecting the ultimate outcome of the war is challenging. However, some major ramifications for Russia and its relations with Ukraine, Europe, and the United States have come into focus." @steven_pifer https://t.co/aw1h68LPYx — Brookings Foreign Policy (@BrookingsFP) December 8, 2022





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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/9/2140976/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-290-Weather-is-weather-dirt-is-dirt

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