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Ukraine Invasion Day 286: missile strikes everywhere, anywhere [1]

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Date: 2022-12-05

​Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak tweeted that the Kremlin should have known that “if something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point.”

ruzzia today: RU media reports that another airfield in Kursk was attacked this night, this time the oil storage tanks on the territory of the military airfield caught fire. 🇺🇦Happy the Armed Forces of Ukraine Day! #RussiaUkraineWar pic.twitter.com/WSFZewC3nA

Russian forces conducted another wave of missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on December 5. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on December 5 that Russian forces conducted missile strikes targeting Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odesa, Vinnetysia, and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 of over 70 missiles launched.[2] Deputy Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko Kyrylo Tymoshenko stated that the Russian strikes damaged a power supply line in Sumy Oblast.[3] ISW previously assessed on December 2 that while Ukrainian and Western-provided air defenses are further reducing Russia’s dwindling supply of precision munitions, the small percentage of Russian strikes getting through Ukraine’s air defenses are nevertheless having significant effects on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.[4]

Ukrainian forces likely conducted strikes on two Russian strategic airbases on December 5, inflicting light damage while demonstrating Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian rear areas and possibly disrupt Russia’s campaign of strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. The Russian Ministry of Defense and several milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces used UAVs to strike the Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast (approximately 315 miles from Ukrainian territory) and the Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast (approximately 285 miles from Ukrainian territory).[5] Both airbases house elements of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, which Russia has employed to strike Ukraine throughout the war. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak tweeted that the Kremlin should have known that “if something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point.” Still, Ukrainian authorities have not formally claimed responsibility for the strikes as of publication.[6] Russian sources claimed that a Ukrainian drone struck aircraft at the Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast, Russia, damaging strategic bombers and missile carriers.[7] Russian sources also claimed that a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Russian fuel truck at the Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast, Russia.[8] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the strike intentionally targeted Russian long-range aircraft.[9] Ukrainian forces likely sought to disrupt Russian strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to target Russian strategic assets.

Anger over the Russian military’s inability to prevent the Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic airbases over 280 miles from Ukrainian positions outweighed praise for the latest round of strikes against Ukraine within the Russian milblogger community. Russian milbloggers criticized Russian officials for failing to anticipate and prevent the drone strikes at the Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases on December 5.[10] Select milbloggers noted that Russian military officials have not adequately protected the airbases, with some suggesting that Russian officials did not adequately defend the bases despite knowing that they were clear targets for Ukrainian strikes.[11] Several prominent Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups must have launched the strike against the Engels-2 air base from inside Russian territory, asserting either that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are active inside Russia or – if the UAVs were launched from Ukrainian territory – that Moscow is under threat from Ukrainian territory.[12]

Russian milbloggers also called on Russian military officials to authorize significant retaliation strikes against Ukraine and intensify counter-terrorism measures within Russian territory.[13] The milblogger community complained that Russian military officials do not consider their suggestions and ignore open-source intelligence (OSINT) and that, had Russian officials taken milbloggers’ warnings into account, the two strikes on Russian military bases would have likely been prevented.[14] Select milbloggers suggested that the strikes on Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases threaten Russia’s legitimacy as a nuclear power as the strikes damaged aircraft capable of carrying multiple nuclear weapons.[15]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Ukraine Pulled Ex-Soviet Recon Drones Out Of Storage, Added Bombs And Sent Them Hurtling Toward Russia https://t.co/ePFhfgayWl pic.twitter.com/IWvwUsS2ce — Forbes (@Forbes) December 5, 2022

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine executed its most brazen attack into Russian territory in the nine-month-old war on Monday, targeting two military bases hundreds of miles inside the country, using unpiloted drones, according to the Russian Defense Ministry and a senior Ukrainian official.

The drones were launched from Ukrainian territory, and at least one of the strikes was made with the help of special forces close to the base who helped guide the drones to the target, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to convey sensitive information.

The strikes signaled a new willingness by Kyiv to take the fight to bases in the heart of Russia, raising the stakes in the war, and demonstrated for the first time Ukraine’s ability to attack at such long distances. Shortly after the attacks on the bases, Russia sent a barrage of missiles streaking toward Ukrainian cities.

The Kremlin said that the weapons launched by Ukraine were Soviet-era jet drones and were aimed at bases in Ryazan and Engels, about 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. It said that its forces had intercepted the drones, and that “the fall and explosion of the wreckage” had “slightly damaged” two planes, killing three servicemen and wounding four others.

The Engels airfield, on the Volga River in southern Russia, is a base for some of Russia’s long-range, nuclear-capable bombers, including the Tupolev-160 and Tupolev-95. Ukrainian officials say it is also a staging ground for Russia’s unrelenting campaign of missile attacks on infrastructure, which have left millions of Ukrainians with intermittent light, heat or water — or none at all — at the onset of winter. Security footage from an apartment complex near the base showed a fireball lighting up the sky.

The other explosion occurred at the Dyagilevo military base in the central city of Ryazan, only about 100 miles from Moscow, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. It was there that the fatalities and injuries occurred, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Ukraine’s government declined to publicly acknowledge the strikes, in keeping with its practice with other attacks on Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea.

[...]

After the explosions, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, appeared to note the strikes obliquely, as Ukrainian officials have often done after unexplained explosions inside Russia.

“The Earth is round — discovery made by Galileo,” he wrote on Twitter. “If something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point.”

www.nytimes.com/...

x The West says nyet to providing Ukraine with military capability to strike inside Russia - a step that makes the war one-sided in favour of Russia. So Ukrainians build their own military capability, striking 2 bases deep inside Russia https://t.co/LXIAFKXUur. — Taras Kuzio 🇬🇧🇪🇺🇺🇦🇮🇹 (@TarasKuzio) December 5, 2022

x The Ukrainians have struck back against Russian airbases that launch attacks against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. My detailed assessment of the impacts these long range strikes might have on the war is now available at my Substack. #Ukraine https://t.co/vKIZ1D5ubJ — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) December 6, 2022

Even at this early stage, we can draw some conclusions on the likely impact of these long-range Ukrainian strikes on the Russo-Ukraine War.

The first implication is that Ukraine clearly now has ability to undertake targeting at very long distances. The Engels air base is 700km from Ukraine. The Dyagilevo base is about 600 kilometres from Ukraine. By comparison, Moscow is around 640 kilometres from the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. This doesn’t mean at all that Ukraine is going to attack Moscow. But it will cause some sleepless nights in the capital.

Despite the widespread availability of high-quality, commercial satellite images, targeting at this distance remains a difficult undertaking. The Ukrainian targeteers who conceived and planned this strike may even have had third party assistance in planning the attack, but this is not a certainty. A combination of open-source material, a knowledge of Russian air defence network gaps and on the ground ‘assistance’ may have sufficed to meet their needs to allow the Ukrainian weapons to penetrate Russian airspace, avoid air defences and get to their targets.

A second implication is that Ukraine is now adopting more active measures to reduce and prevent Russian missile strikes on its citizens and its civilian infrastructure. This is a logical next step. The recent Russian drone strikes, which have been more systemic and employed larger numbers of drones and missiles, have caused death and destruction and widespread power outages across Ukraine. Over the past weekend, the Russian launched an eight wave of strikes, which have become a signature tactic for the new Russian commander, General Surovikin. These strikes have also stopped the export of Ukrainian power, begun in July this year, to the EU. This denies Ukraine important export revenue.

As such, this is not only a military strike, but a political necessity. President Zelenskyy has constantly called on Western support to defend against these Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure. It is almost a certainty, given how civil-military relations work in democracies, that the President will have probably given final clearance for this strike because of the political and diplomatic sensitives involved. In some respects, he is now taking the fight to Putin - against military targets that have directly attacked Ukraine. It is not, as some are sure to claim, an escalation. But it is a necessary political and military measure for Ukraine to limit the humanitarian harm of Russia’s brutal drone and missile attacks.

mickryan.substack.com/...

x ⚡️US Army plans ‘dramatic’ ammo production increase.



The U.S. Army is seeking an increase in the production of 155mm artillery shells as donations to Ukraine are “straining allied munitions stockpiles,” Doug Bush, the assistant secretary of the U.S. Army for acquisition, said. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 5, 2022

x Above pairs nicely with this article from @StephenLosey https://t.co/9qfE4FDklH — Joe Gould (@reporterjoe) December 5, 2022

x “US secretly modified the advanced Himars rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia, US officials said, a precaution the Biden admin says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.” https://t.co/pe9xFfkQUM — Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) December 5, 2022

x "#Ukraine has reclaimed 54 percent of the land #Russia has captured since the beginning of the war, according to a @nytimes analysis of data provided by @TheStudyofWar."https://t.co/7UtspBelSD https://t.co/GsI88b2csQ pic.twitter.com/WyA4dcbWWf — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) November 15, 2022

x But, the Russian advances are incremental against a goal that has no real strategic value anymore. I believe Bakhmut is now mostly just to create a (pyrrhic) victory to boost morale, and for Wagner to use it to gain more political (and monetary) power. 3/n — Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) December 3, 2022

x I wrote about something very close to home -- how Russia is using ethnic minorities as cannon fodder in its invasion of Ukraine. This is not a new development, it's a tale as old as time. This is what happens when imperial legacies are not dealt with.https://t.co/7ov2zTEwhP — Diyora Shadijanova (Диёра Шадижанова) (@thediyora) September 28, 2022

x Ukraine's telecom repair crews are dodging bullets and splicing cables to keep the country online https://t.co/f7dlRYKax4 — Businessweek (@BW) December 5, 2022

x ‘Our mission is crucial’: meet the warrior librarians of Ukraine https://t.co/yJLeZqt1NZ — The Guardian (@guardian) December 4, 2022

​

The battles of the 21st century are hybrid wars fought on any and all fronts: military, economic, political, technological, informational, cultural. Often ignored, or relegated to marginal status, the cultural front is nonetheless foundational. The wars of this century are wars over meaning. As American forces learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, if you lose on the cultural front, military and economic dominance swiftly erode. The terrible battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv, the destruction of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, Europe’s struggle to heat and feed itself this winter, spiralling inflation, the brutal material horrors of the struggle, might make any cultural reading of the conflict seem fantastical or glib. But at its core, and from its origin, this Ukrainian conflict has been a war over language and identity. And Ukraine’s libraries are the key.

There has never been a war in which poetry has mattered more. In the earliest days of the invasion, the Russian film star Sergei Bezrukov gave a sensational reading of Alexander Pushkin’s 1831 masterpiece, To the Slanderers of Russia, on his Telegram channel. That great poem is a warning to foreigners about involving themselves in Eastern European wars. “Your eyes are all unable to read our history’s bloody table,” Pushkin warned two centuries ago. “Slavonic kin among themselves contending, an ancient household strife, oft judged but still unending.” In response, the Ukraine rapper Potap posted: “I understand that quote is a classic,” he rhymed. “You are not brothers but enemies.” Bezrukov was saying to the west: “You don’t understand.” Potap’s answer was to Russians: “No, you don’t understand.”

[...]

Meanwhile, the business of libraries continues despite the physical destruction. They maintain the logistical network of Ukrainian culture. “The libraries follow their readers anywhere,” Bruy says. “So in Kharkiv, which is very often bombed, a lot of people live in the metro.” Librarians bring the books to them. People need to read in bomb shelters, too. That’s where they most need to read. “The library isn’t a building,” Bruy says. “The library is a community.”

During this war, Ukrainian libraries now serve new roles. They operate as centres for displaced persons. They offer psychological counselling for traumatised populations. They provide space for art therapy. “Of course, we pay special attention to children,” Bruy says. The librarians even sew camouflage nets when they have the time. But the libraries have two principal tasks to undertake. The first is to keep an accurate record of Russian brutality. “We are convinced that collecting, organising and preserving documents about this war is the straight duty of librarians,” Bruy says. They are also responding to an unprecedented demand for Ukrainian language lessons. Nearly a third of Ukrainians speak Russian as a mother tongue. The war has clarified to them that it is not their language.

www.theguardian.com/...

x Russia's foreign ministry confirmed negotiating with the IAEA to create a "safety zone" around the Zaporizhzhia NPP. At the same time, Russia stresses that it will not give control over the station to any other party. — UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) December 5, 2022

x The IMF needs to step up to keep Ukraine afloat in 2023 https://t.co/POlrSNcISe — John Steed (@JohnSte40163279) December 5, 2022

x The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had far-reaching consequences for human well-being.



📅 Join us tomorrow to discuss new research that assesses the economic costs of war in Ukraine and around the globe https://t.co/hn7Ehnwix0 pic.twitter.com/woMShdkYim — World Bank Research (@wb_research) December 5, 2022

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