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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Impeach Hunter Biden! But don't mention extremism. [1]

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Date: 2022-12-05

Republicans’ Lost Youth

And yet, if we wish to understand why Republicans aren’t notching more victories, we should consider the Right’s continuing struggles with Millennials and Generation Z.

Political-data types disagree about the impact of the youth vote on the midterms. On the one hand, some say young voters surged in their turnout and that this blocked a red wave. John Della Volpe, the longtime chief of youth polling for the Harvard Institute of Politics, projected that the jump in young-voter turnout seen during the 2018 #resistance midterm would continue. He found that 40 percent of voters under age 30 said they would “definitely” vote in the midterms, a figure similar to findings in the blue-wave year of 2018. Similarly, Anthony Salvanto, the head of elections and surveys at CBS News and one of my favorite analysts, touted youth turnout as decisive.

Supporting his analysis are the scholars at Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, who projected that young voters would have an outsize influence in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, critical swing states that have kept the Senate in Democratic control. Stories from campuses such as that of the University of Michigan add images to the data, with reports of lengthy lines to vote.

This, paired with the network exit polls’ estimates that voters under age 30 broke for Democratic candidates by a two-to-one margin — roughly the same margin by which they broke for Democrats in the 2018 midterms — all paint a picture of a generation that behaved the same way they did in a blue-wave year, even as the rest of the electorate shifted rightward. (Voters in their 40s, for instance, broke for Democrats by six points in 2018 but swung to vote Republican by seven points this time around.)

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/5/2140010/-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Impeach-Hunter-Biden-But-don-t-mention-extremism

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