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Ukraine Invasion Day 284: the postwar economy must not “earn everything itself” [1]
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Date: 2022-12-03
A volunteer Ukrainian special forces team has been conducting secret raids under the cover of darkness , traveling across the strategic waterway that has become the dividing line of the southern front.
Even as they have celebrated successes elsewhere, Ukrainian forces in the small eastern city of Bakhmut have endured relentless Russian attacks.
As many Ukrainians head into winter without power orWestern officials say that rebuilding Ukraine’s battered energy infrastructure needs to be considered a second front in the war.
Ukraine is on the offensive, but with about one-fifth of its territory still occupied by Russian forces, there is still a long way to go , and the onset of winter will
Officials from the general prosecutor’s office, who were interviewed by Reuters, claimed that between 2010 and 2014, officials were stealing a fifth of the country’s national output every year. This behaviour has infected all sectors of Ukrainian society. President Yanukovych lived in a vast palace on the edge of Kiev. After he fled, protesters found millions of dollars worth of paintings, icons, books and ceramics stacked in his garage. He’d had nowhere to display them.
Public fury has fuelled two revolutions. In 2004, street protests helped Viktor Yushchenko defeat an attempt by the then prime minister Viktor Yanukovych to rig the presidential election. During his five years in power, however, Yushchenko failed to dislodge the networks of patronage. Amid widespread disillusionment, he lost the 2010 election to Yanukovych, who was in turn driven out in February 2014, after corruption mutated into still more virulent forms.
Since 1991, officials, members of parliament and businessmen have created complex and highly lucrative schemes to plunder the state budget. The theft has crippled Ukraine. The economy was as large as Poland’s at independence, now it is a third of the size. Ordinary Ukrainians have seen their living standards stagnate, while a handful of oligarchs have become billionaires.
Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index – the most widely used indicator of corruption worldwide – rates Ukraine 142nd in the world, alongside Uganda. In the latest ranking, it fell behind Nigeria.
The phrase “earn everything ourselves”, is a euphemism for taking bribes, and the post-war Ukrainian economy will require much TLC. Auctioning Viktor Medvedchuk’s yacht is a drop in the bucket.
(Tribune News Service) — Moscow will intensify its cyber efforts to pressure the sources of Ukraine's military and political support both domestic and foreign, according to Microsoft. In a post on the company's "On the Issues" blog, Clint Watts, general manager of Microsoft's digital threat analysis center, urged customers to prepare for more Russian cyberattacks over the winter. "Russian military intelligence actors' recent execution of a ransomware-style attack — known as Prestige — in Poland may be a harbinger of Russia further extending cyberattacks beyond the borders of Ukraine," Watts said. Alongside almost two months of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, there have been "complementary" cyberattacks on Ukrainian and foreign-based supply chains as well as "cyber-enabled influence operations," he added. In sum, those efforts are intended to "undermine U.S., EU, and NATO political support for Ukraine, and to shake the confidence and determination of Ukrainian citizens." www.stripes.com/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian “Carlson” volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boats, reaching a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank, and raising a Ukrainian flag on a tower near the shore.[1] Special Unit “Carlson” reported that this is the first instance of a Ukrainian flag flying over the east bank of the Dnipro River and emphasized this operation will provide a springboard for subsequent Ukrainian operations on the east bank.[2] If confirmed, this limited Ukrainian incursion onto the east bank could open avenues for Ukrainian forces to begin to operate on the east bank. As ISW has previously reported, observed Russian fortifications on the left bank indicate Russian forces are anticipating Ukrainian offensive actions on the east bank and have been constructing defensive lines south of the Dnipro River.[3] The establishment of positions along the eastern riverbank will likely set conditions for future Ukrainian offensive operations into occupied Kherson Oblast if Ukrainian troops choose to pursue this line of advance in the south. www.understandingwar.org/... x In the areas of Ukraine that Russia has seized, millions of civilians have had to coexist with an occupying army. The Ukrainians have recently clawed back chunks of their territory, and almost immediately the hunt was on for collaborators.
https://t.co/03nknf66LC — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) December 4, 2022 Authorities in Kyiv region said they have detained a group of people who tried to steal a mural by renowned graffiti artist Banksy from the wall of a building that was damaged by Russian shelling. The mural, which shows a woman wearing a gas mask and carrying a fire extinguisher, was "ruthlessly cut off by attackers" in the town of Hostomel, northwest of the capital Kyiv on Friday, the head of the Kyiv Police Department, Andrey Nebitov, said Saturday in a statement on Telegram. "A group of people dismantled the painting of the world-famous artist, tried to transport it using wooden boards and polyethylene, but was exposed by police and security forces," Nebitov said. As part of the investigation, "an art expert examination" will be conducted on the mural and authorities will make a decision what charges to file against the group, Nebitov said. On Friday, the head of the Kyiv region military administration, Oleksii Kuleba, said the group was "detained on the spot" and that the mural is undamaged. "I want to emphasize that Banksy's works in the Kyiv region are under protection from the police," Kuleba said on his Telegram channel. "After all, these images are a symbol of our struggle against the enemy. These are the stories about the support and solidarity of the entire civilized world with Ukraine. Let's do everything to preserve the works of street art as a symbol of our future Victory," he said. Kyiv regional authorities, the local community and representatives from Ukraine's Ministry of Culture and Information Policy are conducting "consultations regarding the storage and future fate of the mural," Kuleba said. The mural in Hostomel is one of several works created by the anonymous artist in different cities in Ukraine following Russia's invasion. www.cnn.com/... x Ukraine authorities detain eight people over theft of Banksy mural outside Kyiv | Banksy | The Guardian
https://t.co/qe40pFQ4Kz — Anthony Amore (@anthonymamore) December 4, 2022
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has published a full list of the individuals who have been sanctioned by the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC). The list has been approved by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Source: the SSU’s website
Details: The 10 people on the list are representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) or have close links with this organisation:
Vadym Novynskyi (a cleric of the UOC-MP);
Pavlo Lebid (Metropolitan Pavlo of Vyshhorod and Chornobyl, the superior of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra);
Rostyslav Shvets (Metropolitan Lazar of Simferopol and Crimea);
Volodymyr Udovenko (Metropolitan Platon of Feodosia and Kerch);
Viacheslav Opanasenko (Bishop Agathon of Koktebel);
Oleksandr Ovsiannikov (Bishop Oleksii of Dzhankoi and Rozdolne);
Kostiantyn Chernyshov (Bishop Kalennik of Bakhchysarai);
Oleksandr Taranov (Archbishop Arkadii of Rovenky and Sverdlovsk);
Oleh Ivanov (former Metropolitan Yelysei of Izium and Kupiansk);
Oleksii Maslenikov (former Metropolitan Iosif of Romny and Buryn).
The SSU pointed out that most of these people are currently either in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine or abroad.
The individuals on the sanctions lists have undertaken various initiatives, such as: proposing that the dioceses they lead join the Russian Orthodox Church; agreeing to cooperate with the occupation authorities; promoting pro-Russian narratives; and justifying Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine.
The restrictive measures imposed on these individuals have a term of five years and will involve the blocking of assets, restriction of trade operations, blocking any removal of funds outside Ukraine, etc. Moreover, all of them have been stripped of any Ukrainian state awards or other forms of recognition.
From now on, these individuals will not be able to obtain ownership of land plots or to privatise state property or intellectual property rights.
www.pravda.com.ua/…
Michael Mazarr: What do you see happening from now through the winter and into next year, particularly around these issues of nuclear risks?
Kori Schake: This is legitimately an incredibly tense, worrisome situation, because Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is failing. And as they continue to be pushed out of Ukrainian territory, there are enormous incentives for escalation. . . . It looks to me like Russian strategy is that they have acknowledged they can’t defeat Ukraine’s army, so they are looking to split off Western support and corrode the Ukrainian population’s willingness to continue to resist Russian occupation.
My expectation of what’s going to happen is that by next summer, Russia will have been pushed out of the entirety of the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea. It is so shocking how fundamentally bad the Russian military is at warfare. That’s going to give enormous incentives to escalation. So there will be a premium in the coming three months to signal very clearly and very concretely to the Russian government the consequences of crossing the nuclear threshold.
I don’t see meaningful military targets for nuclear use in Ukraine. There isn’t a port or an airfield or massing of large numbers of troops that would be a traditional battlefield nuclear target. What I have nightmares about is President Vladimir Putin concluding that he may be able to cover this humiliating defeat by launching a nuclear strike on Kyiv to affect regime change by killing the Ukrainian government.
x YouTube Video
Patrick Porter: You don’t have to be fixated on the peculiarities of Vladimir Putin to conclude that nuclear use is possible because it’s a much more mainstream nuclear doctrine among nuclear-armed powers when they’re facing the prospect of conventional defeat and where the stakes are high, to be tempted to use them. This was NATO’s doctrine in the European theater from 1965, to offset and forestall conventional defeat with a threat of nuclear use. Similar story you can tell about Pakistan, India, even North Korea.
I agree that there may not be a meaningful military target, but I think the purpose would be to make Ukraine back off and at least divide the West—an attempt at psychological terror. So whatever strategy we are going to form, if we’re going to have a strategy of least regret, it can’t be one that bets the farm on this being a bluff. This is very real.
As if this wasn’t depressing enough, I don’t see the scope now or in the near future for there to be any kind of diplomatic settlement here. I don’t think there’s scope even for bargaining. I don’t think there’s even a table actually, as much as we might like there to be one.
Polina Sinovets: For Putin, this war is a game of a chicken, and he just closed the door for himself for any kind of defeat. This is the most concerning thing for me because I still don’t think that he wants to use nuclear weapons. However, at some point, if he will feel himself trapped, then he can do it.
If Russia would succeed in Ukraine with this nuclear blackmail—with the coercive threats or using nuclear weapons—then it goes further. Then Georgia will be the next.
Michael Mazarr: It seems like one of the central dilemmas here is that we need Putin to lose. On the other hand, when he begins to lose, the risk of escalation goes up. What’s the way around that dilemma?
Polina Sinovets: I still believe that Putin is rational. He has a fear. He may lose Russia. The costs and benefits are still on the table, because having Ukraine is not worth losing Russia.
On the other hand, he can still say that the special operation was successful—in Russia, everything depends on the interpretation. Of course it would be a very hard moment now, because he had proclaimed the annexation of the regions of Ukraine, so he can’t back off. As I understand it, Russian elites have already started to think over how they can leave the war without that devastating loss.
So this is a big dilemma. But this is what I am afraid that Putin should receive some reward for backing off.
carnegieendowment.org/...
x Pressuring Ukraine into surrendering territory would be a betrayal of a legal, humanitarian, and political responsibility to the Ukrainian people.
https://t.co/2r0YUN781J — Foreign Policy (@ForeignPolicy) December 4, 2022
x NATO ministers absolutely want to send Putin a message about NATO — it will expand wherever and whenever it wishes. But are they sending the wrong signals to Ukraine?
https://t.co/5ZIoqqpHhT — Responsible Statecraft (@RStatecraft) December 4, 2022
x Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy wants lower Russian oil price cap
https://t.co/SLWIunk72J — Arturo - Love Hugs Bubbles Smiles Kisses (@zr1uro) December 4, 2022
x Russian authorities rejected a price cap on the country's oil set by Ukraine's Western supporters and threatened on Saturday to stop supplying the nations that endorsed it.
https://t.co/K3OXqfZbJ2 — CBS News (@CBSNews) December 4, 2022
x German Siemens Energy in November of this year turned to the Ukrainian government with a proposal to place floating power plants in the waters near Odesa, Izmail and Mykolaiv. — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) December 3, 2022
x Home / Articles / Ecological Path to Peace Is Possible in Ukraine
28 Nov 2022
https://t.co/KE2Ws9Ym2m — John Hallam (@johnhallam2001) December 4, 2022
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