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Just my opinion about the war in Ukraine - I could be totally wrong. Who knows. You decide . [1]

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Date: 2022-12-01

I really think that “turn strategy to operations” military problem is crystal clear right now in the southern campaign, at least — is as clear as it is going to get. I think the fog of war is lifting and that friction and chance and all that, as Clausewitz defines it — is about gone there now. SO--— Lets make a leap from the 18th century here a little.

Ukraine will strike to their left at least as east as Melitopol and maybe Mariupol , will cut off Crimea and lay siege there. Pretty much like they did on the east bank at Kherson. Same idea. I am dead sure. Yes — UKR will have to cross the Dnipro river above Kherson to strike east of that penetration to close — but into what resistance? Not much, since Russian artillery can’t hit the broadside of a barn here even if they had range. Their tubes are so fucking spent. And there are a number of ways to get across that river for Ukraine. Russia sure can’t stop this once Ukraine gets across that river. And Ukraine is out for blood at this point — nothing is going to stop them.

And yet — Russia (ala 1941) is entrenching on the Crimean peninsula and positions in front of it like they are prepping for some frontal attack. You know Russia tried to do something like this as the Germans moved on Moscow — they lost 6 million soldiers trying to entrench and block as Germany surged. Ukrainians sure don’t need to do that. They are pretty smart, those Ukrainians. The four ways into Crimea are basically cut-off (three bridges and the port at Sebastopol). And the water they need to feed those 3 million people there, Ukraine already controls.

One could see why Hodges thinks this goes real bad for Russia in the spring in Crimea alright because that is when you better get a crop in the ground among many other things. Perfect sense. BUT — put them under fire sooner and they cannot even defend those bases there. SO — faster Crimea goes under constant fire, the faster this ends. Crimea is very tenuous for Russia right now. Pretty much just the range of the munitions in question at this point, like how close do they have to get OR do they get longer range capability. That is the war — it ends where it started and all roads lead to Crimea right now — just as General Hodges says. He is dead right. Most wars do.

Lets jump back into the beginnings of western war concepts for a moment -

This is not new in war — at all. In a way, this is like fighting the battles at Cannae or Gaugamela, if one wants to reach back that far — to near the very beginnings of western war. Both Hannibal and Alexander move the majority of forces to their wings — put up the smallest possible force to barely hold the center. They then collapse the wings and drive to the center. Complete slaughters. Even though they were outnumbered. Now Lee actually tried to do something like that at Gettysburg but could not make penetrations at either Little Round Top or at Culps hill (Lee’s two flanks) — why the charge at the center (Pickett's charge) was pretty much doomed. But both Hannibal and Alexander did get a hold of those flanks — hence two of the most famous envelopments in military history. And they were both heavily outnumbered. Ukraine is not.

So consider — the Russian right has already folded at Kharkiv, their left is folding from Kherson and UKR will continue to move south and east from Kherson. And honestly their center in the Donbas area is doing a lot better than just holding on by the skin of their teeth there like Alexander or Hannibal did (UKR continuously is fucking with RU logistics for example). AND they are not even outnumbered like Hannibal or Alexander was. They just might fold Russia’s center even without the RU flanks folding there. Those Ukrainians are fucking good, good students of war and we are giving them some pretty good tools here (even though they are at best mediocre for our military abilities). Honestly — I think Russia is trying to reinforce their center even as both flanks give in — beyond stupid. Honest to god — Russia is constructing a defensive line to just block roads in an approach to Crimea — like they don’t think Ukraine can just go around them??? Their defenses are like a bad joke. Sure won’t turn out well in the 21st century any better than it did in 331 BC or at any other time for that matter — all ends the same. That once the flanks give in it is just a matter of time. Yeah — there will be a hard fight in the center — but remember, UKR does not have to win there — just hold there. A big difference. Larger geography, same principle.

What I just said is really more academic (my old cohort from military school see it about the same by the way — So does Dr Mike and he was our professor in western war). I am sure General Hodges sees about the same here.

Now here is the practical -

There is a greater truth to this too I think — the Russian army I think collapses when they know they are done in (at their flanks). Fuck, those soldiers know this was all bullshit from the beginning. They know they are not getting supplied and they know the “new boys” want nothing to do with this war. Really, think they will ever trust those draftees will have their ass when it gets down to it? .

That is the reality I think. How I see this war — from what I learned of war, academic and practical. All are starting to converge here. In the end it is real unlikely to play out drip by drip by drip for long. Because when the dam breaks it will just be a flood. I guess you could say, this will move slowly — until it doesn’t. Like you don’t go bankrupt until you do kind of thing. And I would sure be betting on sooner than later.

But all IMHO.

Now for my strong opinion!!!!!!!

Jesus Christ how clear does this have to get — give those Ukrainians a fucking fighter/attack air force — most of those little kids, old people did not need to die here. OR just let us do the deal — or are we supposed to be afraid of the Russian escalation — hey buddy, if they are going to escalate they just fucking will. Have we not figured this out yet? They think they are at war with us, NATO — OK, lets make it real for them. It will get real scary real fast for Vlad.. We can end this really fucking fast. I think three or four wings of fighters capable of ground attack will do it — ours or Ukrainian. I don’t see how it matters right now just who is in that cockpit. As General Clark says, or Admiral Starvidis is saying (sarcastically paraphrasing) — they need a fucking tactical air force! Give Ukraine a tactical air force and Russia will be chasing their ass the rest of this war. They won’t be hitting cities too much cause our air force are basically hunter-killers and will hunt them. Like prey. And we are scary fucking good at it. Like if it is moving they will kill it. Even easier if the targets are stationary. The real strength of the US is vertical, not horizonal.

I have posted this before some time ago and I will do it again here. His take on this likely operational movement coming is dead on — really just clarifying General Hodges projection of the game. Except I think when the wings start to converge, the fight in the center also folds under it’s own weight. Just like Hannibal’s attack did the Romans in say. Ability to supply is NOT the only problem Russia has here — by far. But I do understand why he says it. The guy is a good speaker too. Very easy to follow I think. He is a really good geo-political analyst I think. He sure went to the right schools.

He is basically right. And our military knows this full well. The Russian military should know this is coming too — I don’t think they are that incompetent. This is all that straight forward. Tactical hocus pocus aside. No way around this fight here for RU. They played themselves into a corner. More like — Ukraine played them into a corner.

Now Russia is trying to put together a strategic bomber force to attack right now (probably because they pissed away most of their missiles) maybe their last hurrah — it will be if they are greeted with enough fighter planes. Their navy will be DOA. Easier if it is our pilots but they can be Ukrainian. If their pilots are up now on F16s (and I really think they are) they will just fly out of Poland if they can’t support with ground ops in Ukraine. Maybe a few other countries too. I think the real question is if those Ukrainian pilots can handle our 4th gen fighters. I think the fact that those Ukrainian pilots are not dead yet speaks volumes about their abilities to adapt.

Here is a really good question I think — say Bakhmut falls — how in god’s name can Russia hold it for long if they get their ass kicked in from north south and west? And their supply points to the east get interdicted. I think it has little strategic or operational value at all from the Ukrainian perspective at this point. But I think from the Russian perspective they desperately need this to try and show they can win “something”. The fact is — if they do or not — doesn’t change a fucking thing in this war in the end.

I would just point this out too by the way — if indeed Ukraine penetrates on that proposed crossing Peter notes, then Donetsk is due east — so Russia would have to calculate just which direction Ukraine does attack — due east or to that kill box in the south. They better choose wisely — but they won’t. Ukraine is two steps ahead of them and has been this whole war. Very capable of shifting tactics on the fly. Ukraine has a very, very good army here. Maybe as good as we are.

This is what I think anyway. All IMHO. Sorry the post is a little long. You decide.

Don’t you wonder — what is Putin’s life expectancy once he loses Crimea?

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