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Climate Brief: 21.5 Million Displaced Annually By Extreme Weather Events [1]

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Date: 2022-11-30

Since 2008, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports, an average of 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced annually by extreme weather events. Experts estimate upwards of 1.2 billion could be displaced by 2050.

“Refugees and displaced people are among those most exposed to the climate crisis,” said UN Refugee Agency’s Special Advisor for Climate Action Andrew Harper, noting that over 70 percent of the world’s displaced people come from the most climate-vulnerable countries. “Many are seeking safety in climate vulnerable countries that have done the least to contribute to climate change and yet have the least resources to adapt.”

… climate change does not just pose a threat by causing immediate harm to people and infrastructure, it is also a long-term danger that can slowly destabilize societies and economies, making them more vulnerable to other threats. Take for instance sea-level rise. Over the past 30 years, the number of people living in coastal areas at high risk of rising sea levels has increased from 160 million to 260 million, 90 percent of whom are from poor developing countries and small island states.

“When temperatures rise in a country, for instance, it can reduce water availability and water quality,” says Amar Rahman, Global Head of Climate Change Resilience Services at Zurich Insurance Group. “This may increase the spread of disease and raise the likelihood of drought leading to crop failures that will reduce incomes and food supplies.”

In a BBC report Is the world ready for mass migration due to climate change? Gaia Vince suggests the 21st century marks the endpoint for nationally drawn borders.

“It can be argued, however, that most of these imaginary lines are not fit for the world of the 21st Century with its soaring population, dramatic climate change, and resource scarcity, said Vince, author of Nomad Century. “Indeed, the idea of keeping foreign people out using borders is relatively recent. States used to be far more concerned about stopping people from leaving than preventing their arrival. They needed their labour and taxes, and emigration still poses a headache for many states.”

Vince suggests geography and climate are the true determinants of borders, noting that large numbers of humans cannot exist in deserts or Antarctica. “Human borders” have created places where large populations have existed in the areas most convenient for survival. These areas — tropical cities, coastline communities, island states — are expected to be among the hardest hit, according to predictions by climate scientists.

The most densely populated areas of the planet are clustered around the 25-26th north parallels which has traditionally been the latitude of most comfortable climate and fertile land. An estimated 279 million people are packed into this thin band of land, which cuts through countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, the United States and Mexico. But the conditions here are changing. On average, climate niches – the range of conditions at which species can normally exist – around the world are moving polewards at a pace of 1.15m (3.8ft) per day, although it's far faster in some places. Adapting to the changing climate will mean chasing our own shifting niche – which for much of human history has been within the temperature range -11C to 15C (12F to 59F) – as it migrates north from the equator. True livability limits are the borders we must worry about as the world warms over this century, bringing unbearable heat, drought, floods, fires, storms, and coastal erosion that make agriculture impossible and displace people.

One Globally Dispersed Species

Vince calls on us to expand our identity so that we view ourselves as part of “one globally dispersed species that must cooperate to survive.” Strong nation states, however, will be necessary to participate in the international response to the climate crisis.

“The scale of the climate crisis requires new global cooperation and, I believe, new international citizenship with global bodies for migration and for the biosphere – new authorities that are paid for by our taxes and to which nation states are accountable.”

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/11/30/2139236/-Climate-Brief-21-5-Million-Displaced-Annually-By-Extreme-Weather-Events

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