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What will be technological change of the 23/24 Election Cycle? [1]

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Date: 2022-11-29

What if parties instead took a longer view, producing ads {or media buys} designed to win supporters in election after {current} election (Politico Magazine piece by Ethan Porter 6/4/2021)

What if taking the longer view in 2020 resulted in the Democrats gaining 13 house and at least 1 more Senate seats. I'll identify the seats.

IA 2nd CD UT 4th CD CA 48th CD

NY 22nd CD CA 39th CD IA 1st CD

CA 25th CD SC 1st CD FL 22nd CD

CA 21st CD TX 24th CD MN 1st CD

FL 26th CD

Tom Tillis is gone and we Cal Cunningham from North Carolina.

We could have gotten these seats for less than $ 20 M USD.

Self-Preservation will be the technological change of the 23/24 election cycle.

How good are TV, radio, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter(&%^#$*(^%), etc. Keep reading.

Evidence from a randomized field experiment was summarized in an article co-authored by that infamous Yale poly-sci guy Alexander Coppock and friends Donald P Green of Columbia U & Ethan Porter of GWU found that Internet advertising "had very a small, estimated effect on Democratic vote share at the precinct level (-0.04 percentage points, SE: 0.85 points). Our results underline the challenges of political persuasion via digital advertisements, particularly in competitive electoral contexts." (Frontiers in Psychology piece by Eva Feron and Trudie Schils 6/20/2020)

"Campaigns spend over $6.4 billion on ads for 2022 elections, making race one of the most expensive ever" - CNBC headline on piece by Brian Schwartz 9/26/ 2022)

Campaigns have spent almost $50 million on midterm ads running on Facebook and Google

alone over the last 30 days, according to data compiled by the companies.

The over $6.4 billion in ad spending already surpasses both the 2018 and 2020 election

cycles, according to AdImpact.

The nonpartisan research company estimates that overall ad spending will hit $9.7 billion

by Election Day in November.

Most political advertisements fail. They might be memorable; they might be well-produced. But recent, high-quality political science studies conclusively show that ads have small effects on political views. Changing people's minds about politics is hard.

Two leading scholars recently summarized the evidence from dozens of rigorous studies of political campaigning, writing, "the best estimate of the size of persuasive effects in general elections … is zero."

"what if the failure of political advertising is, at least in part, a failure of imagination? Almost all political ads, whether from candidates or party committees, are produced to achieve a very narrow goal: winning the next election. What, if parties instead took a longer view, producing ads {or media buys} designed to win supporters in election after election?" (Politico Magazine piece by Ethan Porter 6/4/2021)

I could not find any research specific to midterm elections.



OK. What are you proposing?

Using something we all learned in grade school combined with a technology that has been around for over three decades to use the Internet to motivate people to examine the positions on various issues and candidates. I began working on this concept before the 2020 General Election.

In researching their views and positions my voter models predict a net Democratic gain in vote share between 1.6789% and 3.2478%. The gains include Republicans who changed their vote to Democratic. Remember 1 Republican switch equals Democratic net gain of 2 votes.

(I used to build econometric models. Econometric models attempt to predict human behavior just as voter models. Admittedly, the voter models of pollsters needs a little work!)

You not only get their about for our candidate for our point of view on an issue for the current election but most likely many elections into the future.

Imagine very strict gun control laws being enacted by Congress and the Supreme Court not overturning the statute. The value of public opinion. I think the Supreme Court is learned something from the Dobbs decision. They may not like it but Brett Kavanaugh in his Senate hearings clearly demonstrated that he cannot take criticism very well, gets angry and wants to take his marbles home. John Roberts seems clearly in a happy in his role as Chief Justice.

When buying television, radio, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, or whatever time or space is a media buy.

Why am I placing this "prospectus" on Daily Kos? I need to raise money. I have a development budget of approximately $1 million with a first two-year operating budget of $4 million. If I had found the money by the middle of October this project could've been through field testing by Midsummer 2023.

AND would be in a position to help set the agenda for the 2024 General Election. Obviously, I did not raise the money by the end of October.

If you're interested in learning more about will be the technological change of the 23/24 election cycle, please send me a private message. Describing your interest in how you feel you can help.

Several years ago I posted infrequently; however, since I've been working on this project I haven't had time to post many stories or comments.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/29/2139042/-What-will-be-technological-change-of-the-23-24-Election-Cycle

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