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Air defence systems that Ukraine desperately needs [1]

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Date: 2022-11-29

Epirus Leonidas microwave weapon

Russia is currently hammering Ukraine with attacks intended to damage and destroy as much of Ukraine’s vital infrastructure as possible. Russia though has been attacking Ukrainian civilian targets since the start of the war. The only thing that has changed is that now Russia is also attacking vital infrastructure (power, water, gas) in addition to attacking civilians and razing towns and cities to the ground. Ukraine needed all sorts of western air defence systems months ago, but now it needs them more than ever, and it needs loads of them.

I’ll put the main airborne threats that Ukraine currently faces into three groups:

1) Iranian suicide drones (i.e. drones that fly to GPS coordinates and then crash into their target exploding in the process, hence the name)

2) Cruise missiles (launched from aircraft, ships or subs)

3) Land-launched ballistic missiles (Russian Iskander missiles as well as Iranian ballistic missiles if Iran ends up supplying any to Russia)

1) Suicide drones

The Iranian suicide drones sold to Russia aren’t very sophisticated, they’re slow and noisy and according to reports most have been shot down, but those that have got through the Ukrainian defences have caused a lot of damage to vital infrastructure.

It seems for now that Russia may have used up its first batch of 300 or so Iranian suicide drones, but it’s expected that Russia will receive a new batch at some point. I’ve read Russia has ordered 2,500 of them. Who knows what will happen after that. Maybe more orders will follow.

Ukraine is a large country and so has a lot of vital infrastructure to protect, therefore the cheaper the system used to shoot down suicide drones the better. Expensive missiles are overkill to take out simple drones. It’s best (as far as possible anyway) to reserve missiles for threats that cheaper systems can’t take out, but obviously given the choice between using a missile to shoot down a drone or other threat and not shooting it down, you’re going to shoot it down regardless of cost.

Ideally though suicide drones would be taken out in warehouses in Crimea, Belarus or Russia before they can even be launched. Failing that, the drones need to be taken out.

The way I see it, the best defences against suicide drones are:

- Anti-aircraft guns (AA guns): Even old-school WWII-type flak guns would be up to the job against slow drones I’d have thought (outside of built-up areas), but especially if combined with modern radars (and other sensors like daytime & night-time cameras) then their accuracy would be greatly improved. The Bofors 40mm seems like an ideal choice imo, although there’s a wide variety of AA guns out there and loads to choose from.

- Guns that can fire smart airburst ammo: Airburst ammo is ammo that explodes in front of its target sending out loads of pieces of metal (often tungsten) to destroy the target. AHEAD ammo and ATOM ammo are two such types of ammo. AHEAD ammo explodes in front of its target sending out 152 tungsten projectiles in a spiral pattern. Such guns can fire fast as well, so numerous rounds can be fired at a target in a short period of time with each round containing 152 tungsten projectiles — 10 rounds equals 1,520 tungsten projectiles — good luck to any drone surviving that. It’s called smart ammo because as the round leaves the gun barrel it’s automatically programmed to detonate a set distance from the target to maximise the chances of taking it out (as a result it’s also known as programmable ammo). [As a side note: It seems to me that existing airburst ammo is overkill to take out simple low-flying drones. Maybe smaller cheaper guns firing airburst ammo containing simple ball bearings would be up to the job?]

- APKWS rockets: APKWS stands for Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System and it’s a system that converts unguided rockets into guided precision rockets. APKWS is relatively cheap (well in military terms anyway). Probably not as cheap as the previous two options, but certainly far cheaper than using any missile. Traditionally APKWS rockets have been launched from helicopters against ground targets, but recent tests with F-16 fighter jets have shown that APKWS rockets can shoot down cruise missiles and that APKWS rockets can also be used in a surface-to-air role and a surface-to-surface role (e.g. see the VAMPIRE system by L3Harris).

- Laser weapons: The beauty of laser weapons is that as long as you have a power source you have pretty much unlimited “ammo”. Plus no reloading required as with gun, rocket or missile-based systems. Even relatively low-powered lasers have been proven in trials to be capable of shooting down low-flying drones. The downsides are that you can only shoot down one target at a time (unlike flak or airburst ammo for example) and that rain and snow will degrade the effectiveness of a laser weapon. That said, in good weather conditions lasers are perfectly capable of shooting down certain types of drone and they’re also ideal to use in urban areas where you want to minimise collateral damage. Any good air defence system would be made up of multiple layers of defence though so you have multiple options and redundancy.

- Microwave weapons: Again, as with laser weapons, these weapons have virtually unlimited ammo if you have a power source. And unlike laser weapons, microwave weapons like Epirus Leonidas in the image above can take out multiple drones in one go. I’ve also read that microwave weapons aren’t as affected by weather conditions as laser weapons (not sure how true that is though). As for being concerned about such a high-tech weapon being captured by the Russians, it would be advisable to only use them far from the front lines and since Russia is attacking a lot of vital infrastructure far from the front lines then Russians capturing microwave (or laser) weapons would be a non-issue. Epirus also makes a Leonidas pod that can be fitted to manned aircraft and drones. (This would provide yet another way to take out drones without having to use much more expensive ordnance. Maybe it would work against cruise missiles as well? Not sure.)

- RCWS: RCWS stands for Remote-Controlled Weapons Station. Several companies make RCWSes and they can be fitted with various types of rifle/gun/cannon of varying calibres. Combined with radar and daytime/night-time cameras I’d have thought that RCWSes would be capable of shooting down low-flying drones.

- Barrage balloons: Just thinking out loud here, but I wonder if old-school WWII barrage balloons are due for a comeback? Especially if they had strong nets strung between them to snare slow propeller drones. And/or if fitted with a Leonidas pod.

- Berms & HESCO sacks: Again, thinking out loud, but would high berms (i.e. banks of soil) and/or HESCO sacks full of soil work to prevent suicide drones hitting transformers and substations for example? It all depends I suppose on the drone’s altitude, the angle it flies down at its target and how high the berms/sacks would need to be. Combined with barrage balloons, maybe this is a workable option to provide defence pretty cheaply? Either that or put vital infrastructure underground as much as possible.

2) Cruise missiles

This refers to Russian missiles like Kalibr, Kh-101 and Kh-555 (not an exhaustive list, although these are the ones that immediately come to mind) and they can be launched by several means: aircraft, ships and subs.

As I said previously, the best option is to take out the weapons before they can be fired.

In the case of Kalibr, this would mean taking out ships and subs in port (which Ukraine could do if provided with ATCAMS missiles and/or SOM cruise missiles).

As for Kh-101 and Kh-555 they’re very long ranged missiles and can be fired by aircraft from far inside Russian territory, so unless Ukraine can find a way to take out these aircraft on the ground in Russia and/or take out warehouses storing the missiles then the only option is to shoot down these particular missiles as they fly into Ukraine.

(What would also help though is clamping down on dual-use microchips that Russia is using to build new missiles. Dual-use microchips are already sanctioned, but Russia is clearly finding a way round the sanctions and these loopholes need to be identified and shut down.)

I’d have thought that some of the methods listed above to deal with suicide drones would also work against cruise missiles, but in terms of SAM systems, then you’re looking at systems like NASAMS and IRIS-T SLM that have already been supplied to Ukraine, but not in large enough numbers (although more will be delivered in the coming months).

Other systems I’m aware of are IRIS-T SLS, Sky Sabre and VL-MICA, all of which AIUI can shoot down cruise missiles, but AFAIK none have been provided to Ukraine. The more SAM systems Ukraine gets the better, since in addition to cruise missiles they could also shoot down low-flying fixed-wing aircraft, attack helicopters and certain types of air-to-ground ordnance.

Ukraine has also been supplied with Crotale, Aspide and HAWK missiles that AIUI can all shoot down cruise missiles.

But as I said Ukraine is a big country and it needs loads of air defence systems of various types.

3) Land-launched ballistic missiles

This AIUI is where Ukraine is currently weakest in terms of air defence.

AIUI some S-300 variants and HAWK variants can shoot down ballistic missiles, but (a) I don’t know if Ukraine has such variants or (b) in what sorts of numbers. Other than that I don’t think Ukraine has anything that can shoot down ballistic missiles.

Systems that can shoot down ballistic missiles are Patriot, SAMP/T and David’s Sling, but these are expensive high-end systems.

So far the US doesn’t seem willing to give Ukraine Patriot and Germany is also hesitant. I’ve read that France and Italy aren’t opposed to giving SAMP/T, but whether that actually happens and in what sorts of numbers only time will tell. As for David’s Sling, that’s an Israeli system and Israel hasn’t exactly been falling over itself to provide Ukraine with military equipment. Again, whether Israel will give David’s Sling to Ukraine only time will tell. (As a sidenote, other Israeli systems that would be very useful for Ukraine are Iron Dome, Iron Beam, Drone Dome and various suicide drones.)

Whether Iran will actually supply any ballistic missiles to Russia isn’t certain. I’ve read reports that seem to suggest that pressure (diplomatic or otherwise) has been applied and that Iran may not actually supply any. I certainly hope that’s the case because Ukraine has more than enough to deal with as it is.

So that’s my (simplistic) assessment of what I think Ukraine currently needs in terms of air defence systems.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2022/11/29/2139086/-Air-defence-systems-that-Ukraine-desperately-needs

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