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Ukraine Invasion Day 277: ground freezing will mean an increased pace of operations [1]

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Date: 2022-11-26

Russian missile stocks continue to be depleted with a diminished outlook on rapid replenishment.

979 "Invincibility points" have already been opened by @SESU_UA , - Ministry of Internal Affairs These are places where Ukrainians can come for warmth, water, electricity, network connection etc. pic.twitter.com/tTsZsVm4ay

The overall pace of operations along the frontline has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions but is likely to increase starting in the next few weeks as temperatures drop and the ground freezes throughout the theater. Ukrainian and Russian reporting from critical frontline areas throughout eastern and southern Ukraine, including Svatove, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar, indicates that operations on both sides are currently bogged down by heavy rain and resulting heavy mud. [1] Temperatures are forecasted to drop throughout Ukraine over the next week, which will likely freeze the ground and expedite the pace of fighting as mobility increases for both sides. The temperature in areas in Ukraine’s northeast, such as along the Svatove-Kreminna line, will dip to near-or-below-freezing daily highs between November 28 and December 4. It will likely take the ground some days of consistent freezing temperatures to solidify, which means that ground conditions are likely to be set to allow the pace of operations to increase throughout Ukraine over the course of the weekend of December 3-4 and into the following week. It is unclear if either side is actively planning or preparing to resume major offensive or counter-offensive operations at that time, but the meteorological factors that have been hindering such operations will begin lifting.

Russian officials are continuing efforts to deport children to Russian under the guise of medical rehabilitation schemes and adoption programs. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 26 that the Russian occupation administration in Luhansk Oblast conducted medical examinations of 15,000 children between the ages of two and 17 and found that 70% of the children (10,500) are in need of “special medical care” that requires them to be removed to Russia for “treatment.” [2] The Resistance Center stated that Russian officials intend these forced deportation schemes to lure children’s families to Russia to collect their children after the children receive treatments, at which point the Resistance Center assessed Russian officials will prevent those families from returning home to Ukraine. The Center‘s report is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that Russian officials are conducting a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied Ukrainian territories. [3]

understandingwar.org/...

x Germany & France must take their responsibility for enabling Russia's military aggression:

1. If they had not opposed Ukraine's and Georgia's accession to NATO in April 2008, neither war would have happened. — Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) November 27, 2022

x 4. As parties to the Minsk negotiations about Ukraine from 2014, Germany and France went from stopping Russia to condoning Russia.

5. Until Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022, Germany & France foolhardily opposed all arms deliveries to Ukraine. — Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) November 27, 2022

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces continued defensive operations against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops are conducting active defense operations northwest of Svatove in the direction of Kupyansk and west of Kreminna in the direction of Lyman. [17] Russian sources continued to discuss marginal Russian advances within Novoselivske, 15km northwest of Svatove. [18] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks on Kolomychikha (10km west of Svatove) and Ploshchanka (15km north of Kreminna). [19] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai noted that Ukrainian troops are continuing to succeed around Svatove and Kreminna, partially due to the low quality and incoherence of mobilized Russian recruits operating in the area. [20] Haidai reported that Ukrainian troops are additionally defending against continual Russian attacks on Bilohorivka, 10km south of Kreminna. [21]

understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut on November 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut, within 4km south of Bakhmut near Opytne, and within 18km northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Yakovlivka. [22] A Russian milblogger posted a control of terrain map claiming that Russian forces control Opytne, although ISW has not observed visual evidence to corroborate this claim. [23] Russian and Ukrainian sources continued to claim that muddy conditions are slowing operations in the Bakhmut area. [24] A Russian milblogger claimed that fierce fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces continued on the southern outskirts of Bakhmut. [25]

Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on November 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 23km southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske. [26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also continued offensive operations in the direction of Novomykhailivka (36km southwest of Avdiivka). [27] Geolocated footage posted on November 26 shows Ukrainian forces striking advancing Russian tanks southwest of Novoselivka Druha (9km northeast of Avdiivka). [28]

understandingwar.org/...

x Russia has erected heavy defensive lines around Melitopol. This battle could be decisive in the war. — KT "Special NATO Ops"@[email protected] (@KremlinTrolls) November 26, 2022

x Universities in Rostov-on-Don 🇷🇺 put pressure on African students, in particular from Nigeria 🇳🇬, to join the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 on the side Russia.



Russia 🇷🇺 promised $3,000 for joining the regular military, and $5,000 to join Wagner Group. pic.twitter.com/9v9PWPjhAi — Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) November 26, 2022

x This is on top of the 28 million of tons of agri products shipped via the EU’s Solidarity Lanes and the Black Sea Grain Initiative.



Europe is boosting the capacities of the Solidarity Lanes to keep providing access to food to our partners worldwide.



→ https://t.co/cwDsg7vhXg pic.twitter.com/verHcpY8dV — Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) November 26, 2022

x “Vladimir Makei, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, has suddenly passed away today,” the Foreign Ministry said without providing more details about the circumstances. He had been in the post since August 2012.

Very strange!https://t.co/HbJeD1PW3i — Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) November 26, 2022

x I have but two villas in Italy to give up for my Motherland… https://t.co/iiVOYvzWLP — Brian M Carroll (@BrianMCarroll) November 26, 2022

x Why Defense Budgets Will Stay High After the Ukraine War | The war is exposing how European nations were underinvesting in defense, and the critical role that renewable energy will play in transatlantic security. https://t.co/eIXvcuiXFg — Defense One (@DefenseOne) November 27, 2022

x Without light. Without heat. Without water. Without connection. Just as long as we are without you, russians!



Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka

Vladyslav Sodel pic.twitter.com/xBTkw5PBvx — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 26, 2022

x ⚡️ Power cuts in Kyiv to be limited to 5 hours at a time.



Ukraine's biggest private energy company DTEK announced that, starting Nov. 26, power outages in Kyiv will not last longer than 5 hours for any consumer. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 26, 2022

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