(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Pandemic Observations -- November 23, Top 40+ Nations (Yet Another Inflection Point?): [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2022-11-25

The Road Ahead?

Unfortunately, it’s starting to look like the optimism I’ve had regarding global trends in the now 3-year long Covid-19 pandemic may have been a bit misplaced. This week we actually saw the largest week-over-week increase in the global death toll since at least July/August, and apparently the largest percentage increase since the earliest days of the pandemic back in 2020. Similarly, there was also a huge new increase in the weekly infection rate, back above the 3 million level for the first time in 5 weeks — led by the US, Latin America (particularly Brazil), parts of Europe once again, and Northeast Asia. The US numbers are perhaps the most disheartening in that they should have been reflecting the relative calm before another potential surge during the Thanksgiving/Christmas travel period.

Some of this new increase may be due to one-time revisions in certain nations’ data (Italy’s numbers look especially suspect), but I’ll definitely be keeping a close eye on next week's numbers to see if they confirm or deny this week’s apparently disturbing inflection point. Astute observers will no doubt realize that these weekly stats are now diverging ever more radically from the similar stats found at worldometers, even though I still rely on their cumulative case and death counts for my database. Their problem is the use of continuously revised data from a number of nations, which is fine for more accurately examining the progress of the pandemic 4-8+ weeks ago, but ends up always undercounting the most recent weeks (since that data hasn’t been finalized yet) and thereby giving the dangerously false impression that the current trends are far better than they actually are.

The other big story this week continues to be China, which appears to be seeing the final collapse of their Zero-Covid containment strategy. Not only are they seeing more new cases now than at any previous point in the pandemic, unlike the initial outbreak in Wuhan and the more recent April outbreak in Shanghai (which were both largely confined to those single cities), this current surge is already out of control in at least half a dozen different areas, including the capitol, Beijing, and none of the traditional lockdown measures appear to be succeeding in containing it at this point.

Even worse as I noted last week, though the PRC has done an admirable job of getting the vast majority of its population vaccinated, they haven’t been nearly as diligent in keeping up with boosters. ~98% of all doses administered were given out more than 6 months ago, so hardly any of the population has any natural (prior exposure) or vaccine-induced immunity toward contracting and/or spreading the disease currently — though hopefully they will still have at least some residual protection against death or serious hospitalization.

A note on Chinese Covid data: the PRC actually releases two different types of case counts, symptomatic and asymptomatic, and it is only the much smaller symptomatic count that worldometers uses in their (and hence my) database. The asymptomatic count tends to be nearly an order of magnitude greater than just the symptomatic count alone (though this will vary with the intensity of the testing program over time), so if these were included in my weekly stats, China would already be nearing 200,000 new cases in just the past week. Likewise, the PRC goes out of its way to try and categorize any Covid-related deaths as anything else if there were any other underlying conditions or potential co-morbidities at all.

The World Health Organization has a different methodology in determining both case and death counts for China, listing 9.57 million total cases to date and 30,000 deaths (vs 1.38 million total cases, 300,000 symptomatic cases, and 5,232 total deaths that China admits to) — though even the WHO data indicates less than 1% of the Chinese population has actually been exposed to Covid-19 at this point.

Top 40+ Nations: November 17-23 New Deaths 7-Day D/1M 7-Day Deaths Weekly Change 14-Day Change Change fr Max World Martinique Finland Taiwan Germany Sweden UK Hong Kong Chile Canada USA Italy Greece Croatia New.Zealand France So Korea Cyprus Japan Hungary Spain Bulgaria Denmark Austria Australia Ireland Slovakia Czechia Guyana Norway Reunion Peru Serbia Lithuania Portugal Slovenia Russia Bosnia Belize Brazil Costa Rica Ukraine Belgium Malaysia Poland Thailand Indonesia Turkey Philippines So Africa Mexico India 1.5 37.3 16.6 14.5 12.9 10.5 10.5 10.3 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.1 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 11,782 14 92 346 1,084 106 711 77 179 350 2,979 533 88 34 40 509 369 8 816 61 284 42 31 47 123 22 23 43 3 20 3 100 26 8 30 6 410 9 1 514 12 102 27 54 50 69 271 73 72 24 51 66 28% 40% -65% -14% 29% 49% -14% 18% -2% -14% 64% 265% -39% -13% -27% 33% 17% -20% 38% -16% 141% 11% -33% -4% 48% 16% -49% 2% 300% 5% 300% 0% -7% -27% -35% 100% -6% 50% 100% 165% 20% -53% -34% -10% 6% 64% -10% 329% -35% 200% 76% 214% -6% 2400% 2% -10% -3% -10% -24% 0% 26% 11% -10% -32% -21% -24% 61% -3% 57% 100% 71% -23% 6% -8% -35% -21% -7% -33% -6% -40% 300% -50% 200% -9% -39% 19% -31% -69% -14% 7% 100% 8% 16% 79% -11% 104% -20% 52% 26% 64% -59% -70% 5% -45% -89% -91% -65% -71% -83% -84% -92% -96% -98% -72% -88% -91% -88% -94% -82% -93% -85% -78% -64% -97% -95% -96% -90% -95% -80% -95% -97% -97% -94% -90% -92% -99% -94% -97% -98% -98% -95% -98% -97% -98% -95% -98% -99% -98% -99% -96% -98% -97% -96% -99% -100% -100% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 48 51 54 55 58 63 67 68 85

D/1M = New Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population over prior 7 days

C/1M = New Covid-19 cases per 1 million population over prior 7 days

Weekly Change = Net change from previous week's stats

14-Day Change = Net Change from previous 14-Day period

Change fr Max = Net change from week of peak deaths or new cases

Bold = Nations experiencing significant upward movement in cases and/or deaths

Note: Only nations with >250,000 population included

All data derived from worldometer

Top 40+ Nations: November 17-23 New Cases 7-Day C/1M 7-Day Cases Weekly Change 14.Day Change Change fr Max World Hong Kong So Korea Japan Taiwan New.Zealand France Italy Austria Cyprus Australia Greece Slovenia Switzerland Germany Singapore Chile Finland Martinique New.Caledonia Barbados Latvia Israel USA Fr Guiana Peru Mongolia Bahrain Panama Mayotte Brazil Qatar Reunion Lithuania Malaysia Costa Rica Iceland Serbia Spain Belgium Hungary Canada Portugal Sweden UK Turkey Netherlands Russia Guatemala Indonesia Ukraine Philippines Thailand So Africa Mexico China India 396 7,235 7,165 5,083 4,988 4,806 4,213 3,444 3,162 3,093 3,028 2,966 2,897 2,448 2,378 2,051 1,929 1,733 1,575 1,524 1,425 1,336 1,052 1,030 1,027 844 820 721 718 702 664 644 642 597 581 536 492 479 474 457 424 416 406 386 345 342 316 251 233 164 154 65 57 54 49 12 2 3,081,678 54,266 367,589 642,010 118,825 24,041 275,095 208,346 28,454 3,736 77,279 30,872 6,026 21,186 199,277 12,003 36,849 9,600 591 440 410 2,517 9,106 341,019 308 27,846 2,691 1,225 3,103 197 141,227 1,800 575 1,624 18,751 2,733 168 4,179 22,182 5,301 4,098 15,677 4,144 3,896 23,445 28,808 5,402 36,641 3,864 45,247 6,757 7,095 3,957 3,179 6,243 16,463 3,240 21% 29% -2% 17% -14% 11% 56% 270% 15% 3% 21% -44% 33% 2% 35% -21% -11% -20% 1037% 83% 204% -4% 21% 42% 894% 131% 58% -23% 126% 159% 131% -22% 13% 5% -5% 12% -16% -7% 1% 17% -8% -20% -10% -5% -3% 154% -44% 1% 36% 2% -60% -12% 25% -30% 13% 54% -25% 22% 36% 27% 54% -35% 11% 35% -18% -12% 16% 76% -26% 1% -6% -32% -47% -4% -10% 563% 152% 110% -14% 30% 19% 261% 310% 110% -30% 172% 210% 189% -25% 25% -24% -22% -3% -11% -21% 6% -21% -29% -18% -14% 13% -36% 75% -8% -13% 23% 51% 44% 1% 34% 60% 113% 221% -56% -87% -85% -87% -62% -79% -83% -89% -83% -91% -89% -89% -88% -94% -91% -87% -91% -85% -87% -95% -95% -91% -96% -98% -94% -97% -92% -99% -98% -95% -99% -89% -94% -99% -98% -91% -96% -99% -96% -98% -99% -96% -95% -99% -99% -98% -96% -99% -97% -89% -88% -97% -97% -98% -98% -98% -28% -100%

Following are the Power Rankings for the most important nations currently driving the global pandemic ranked in terms of total new infections and new deaths during the past week:

Top 40 Nations by New Deaths: November 17-23 7-Day Deaths 14-Day Increase Global% World USA Germany Japan UK Italy Brazil France Russia So Korea Canada Taiwan Spain Indonesia Chile Australia Sweden Ukraine Peru Finland Greece Hong Kong Turkey Philippines Thailand India Hungary Malaysia Mexico Poland Austria Czechia Bulgaria New.Zealand Croatia Denmark Portugal Belgium Serbia So Africa Slovakia 11,782 2,979 1,084 816 711 533 514 509 410 369 350 346 284 271 179 123 106 102 100 92 88 77 73 72 69 66 61 54 51 50 47 43 42 40 34 31 30 27 26 24 23 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 2.3% 1.6% 5.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 5.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 100% 25.3% 9.2% 6.9% 6.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

14-Day Increase = Net increase of current 14-day numbers over prior cumulative totals

Global% = Share of Global Totals

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/25/2138295/-Pandemic-Observations-November-23-Top-40-Nations-Yet-Another-Inflection-Point

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/