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Various thoughts about what Ukraine currently needs [1]

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Date: 2022-11-24

The Turkish SOM cruise missile [image source: https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/western_air_to_surface_missiles_for_ukraines_aircraft_is_it_possible_to_integrate_slam_er_or_som_missiles_into_the_mig_29_and_su_27-3962.html]

Considering that it seems like that the US to its shame (considering the Budapest Memorandum) will never provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles, I’ve started thinking about alternatives.

Ideally the US will change its mind and/or countries will start producing ATACMS analogues that can be fired from HIMARS/M270 launchers, but until then the Turkish air-launched SOM cruise missile seems like a very good option and in a few respects it’s actually better than ATACMS:

- It’s stealthy

- It’s manoeuvrable

- It can be used as both a land attack and anti-ship missile

- Depending on the variant it has a range of 250km or more (approx 150 miles or more)

- A warhead of 230kg (approx 500lbs)

- And most importantly, Ukrainian Sukhois and MiGs should be able to carry the SOM missile: en.defence-ua.com/… As the article says: “… the SOM cruise missile was purchased by Azerbaijan in approximately 2018. This country has only MiG-29s, which underwent repair and modernization in Ukraine, and Su-25s. In other words, the means of its integration were found in Baku and it is possible to repeat them.”

Whether Turkey will supply Ukraine with SOM missiles is another matter, but if it does, and assuming that Ukrainian aircraft can be fitted with them (which seems likely), then this would give Ukraine the ability to bring the end of the war much closer much quicker than would otherwise be the case.

With air-launched SOM missiles Ukraine could:

- Hit ships and subs in port in Sevastopol

- Damage the port infrastructure in Sevastopol regardless of whether ships or subs are there or not

- Hit ships at sea

- Hit airbases (including aircraft on the ground) in southern Ukraine, including Crimea

- Hit bridges used by Russia for logistics, especially rail bridges that Russia is highly dependent on

- The Kerch Strait bridges could be finished off, especially the one rail line that is still operational (although AIUI at much reduced capacity compared to before the attack) (trucks have to use the ferry rather than the road bridge)

- Hit warehouses in Crimea storing Iranian suicide drones

- Hit fuel & ammo dumps anywhere in occupied Ukraine

- Hit concentrations of troops and equipment anywhere in occupied Ukraine

- Possibly hit military targets in Russia, assuming that Turkey doesn’t impose a restriction on that

Another option, which is similar to ATACMS, is the Israeli LORA system (LORA = LOng Range Attack)

Could other weapons be fitted to Ukrainian aircraft in addition to the SOM cruise missile? After all, HARM missiles have already been fitted to Ukrainian aircraft. What else could be fitted? SLAM-ER? Maverick? Brimstone? SDB? MALD? Harpoon? Storm Shadow? Anything else?

Could Ukrainian aircraft be fitted with the Arexis EW suite? Or BriteCloud? Or both?

I’ve read that Turkey has provided Ukraine with TRLG-230 missiles, which have a similar range to M31 GMLRS rockets fired by HIMARS/M270 launchers. I’ve also read that the launcher that launches these TRLG-230 missiles can also fire another round with a range of 150km.

If this is true, it would give Ukraine the ability to hit targets at about twice the range of M31 GMLRS rockets fired by HIMARS/M270 launchers. Such ordnance would be incredibly useful to Ukraine. Again, if Turkey actually supplied it to Ukraine.

Germany offered the Patriot SAM system to Poland. Poland generously said to give it to Ukraine instead. This makes total sense to me, but Lambrecht came out with the idiotic argument that Patriot is for NATO countries only. Wtf??? What the hell is wrong with Germany? Scholz came out with a similarly idiotic argument saying that Germany won’t give Leopard tanks to Ukraine independently of other NATO countries. Such “arguments” (if they can even be referred to as such) make absolutely no sense.

Ukraine needs loads more air-defence systems of various types to deal with a wide range of threats.

At this stage Ukraine specifically needs systems that can take out suicide drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, so especially AA guns, APKWS rockets, SAM systems that can shoot down various targets including cruise missiles, laser weapons, microwave weapons as well as high-end SAM systems that can shoot down ballisic missiles such as Patriot, SAMP/T and David’s Sling.

C-RAM systems and thousands upon thousands of rounds would also enable Ukraine to shoot down saartillery rockets, artillery shells and mortars.

I read a while back about QF-16s, which are a remote-controlled version of the F-16 fighter jet.

That made me wonder if it would be possible to take old aircraft from boneyards in the US that are no longer used, convert them into INS/GPS-guided variants and fill them full of explosives to hit logistics rail bridges, airbases as well as ships and subs in ports? The S-3 Viking springs to mind for example. Or even propeller aircraft like the Super Tucano and/or long-range UAVs.

I also wonder if such aircraft could be fitted with the Arexis EW pod for example to make them hard to shoot down?

Or whether a dedicated EW aircraft (e.g. Growler, F-16CJ, Compass Call) could accompany these aircraft to enable them to reach their targets without being shot down? These aircraft could presumably also carry MALD/HARM missiles to confuse/destroy Russian SAM systems.

Russian attacks on vital infrastructure are causing a huge amount of misery for Ukrainians. These attacks have affected electricity, water, gas, heating, mobile phones, the internet, etc.

Ukraine has set up so-called “invincibility centres” (a good idea, but a terrible name imo), that AIUI are designed to provide people with warmth, hot drinks, power, mobile/internet connectivity, etc. But I read that the location of these centres is displayed on online maps. Am I missing something something or is that an an absolutely idiotic thing to do?

I’m thinking it would make far more sense to use shipping containers fitted to trucks that provide the same services, but because they’re mobile they’ll be far harder to target. Such trucks could drive round like buses and pick people up at the roadside. Although ideally there wouldn’t be any designated stops, but rather the trucks would stop and pick people up as and when needed.

It would also make sense to provide trucks that drive around providing hot and cold water, power to recharge electronic devices, mobile & internet connectivity, toilets, hot showers, washing machines, hot water bottles, Thermos flasks, blankets, electric blankets, thermal underwear, thermal socks, etc, etc, etc.

As for protecting electricity transformers and sub-stations, would very high piles of HESCO sacks full of soil, very high berms and barrage balloons protect them from low-flying cruise missiles?

Seriously though, shouldn’t power stations be built underground, especially nuclear ones? And even better would be for houses to be fitted with solar panels and batteries to store energy. At the very least.

At home people in Ukraine would benefit from:

- Battery-powered torches/flashlights/headlamps (that use conventional and/or rechargeable batteries)

- LED rechargeable torches/flashlights (e.g. rechargeable via a USB connection)

- LED lanterns (ditto previous statements)

- Candles, lighters, matches [it’s always better to have more than one source of ignition in case one fails — I have several lighters and a few boxes of matches; I have flick lighters, jet lighters, traditional matches and storm matches]

- Camping stoves that use butane cartridges: www.amazon.co.uk/...

- Free-standing gas heaters with gas bottles. Easier said than done I know — I live in the UK and have been trying to get hold of Calor gas bottles for a couple of years and can’t find them anywhere. Anyway, this is the sort of free-standing heater I’m talking about: www.amazon.co.uk/…

- Thermos flasks: They keep hot drinks hot & keep cold drinks cold

- Hot water bottles: Keep you warm in bed assuming you can heat water

- Blankets: The more the better

- Electric blankets: Assuming you have electricity, an electric blanket can keep you warm in bed relatively cheaply (well based on current UK prices anyway)

- Multiple layers of clothing, e.g. thermal underwear, thermal socks (waterproof varieties are available), beanies/wool hats, chute headwear*, gloves**, T-shirts, thin long-sleeved tops, thicker long-sleeved tops like say a sweatshirt or a fleece, jackets. You can also get quick-wicking breathable clothing to greatly minimise sweating. Quick-wicking clothing also dries quicker compared to other clothing once it gets wet (and also doesn’t get as wet in the first place). You can also buy items of clothing that contain batteries to keep them warm. Search for “battery-heated clothing”. There are many options.

Another option is lightweight, waterproof, breathable clothing. You can often buy such clothing cheaply in a smallish zip pack or velcro pack. Here in the UK you can often buy a jacket or trousers for 10 pounds each. I was homeless for 14 months a few years ago and I found such items of clothing incredibly useful. Not only did they keep me dry from the rain, but they also minimised my sweating and also greatly reduced the wind chill factor when combined with other layers of clothing. The more breathable layers of clothing you wear the better. If you wear a cotton T-shirt for example, once it gets wet from sweat it will take a long time to dry unless you have a radiator to put it on (which when I was homeless I obviously didn’t have). Thin, quick-wicking, breathable layers are best. Not only do they not get as wet as cotton in the first place, once they get wet they dry relatively quickly compared to cotton. They also don’t smell of BO (body odour) as bad as cotton.

*Chute headwear is incredibly versatile. You can wear it around your neck to keep your neck warm. You can pull it up over your mouth and nose so only your eyes are exposed — combined with a hat this keeps you protected from the worst of the cold. You can also wear a chute as a hat if you don’t have one.

**Gloves: There are many types of glove, but I found Thinsulate gloves really good when I was homeless in the UK. That said, the coldest it ever got to was about -5 Celsius (23 F).

When it comes to getting water:

- Use rain-collection barrels

- Melt snow

- Collect water from streams, rivers, lakes and other (relatively clean) sources

Then:

- Use water-purification devices to make the water drinkable

- If you’re lucky enough to have a reverse-osmosis pump you can desalinate sea water and then purify it

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/24/2138260/-Various-thoughts-about-what-Ukraine-currently-needs

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