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Warnock gets triple boost in runoff campaign with court win, polling lead, and major star power help [1]
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Date: 2022-11-22
Democrats sued and won, Raffensperger appealed and lost, and then gave up, resulting in the polls being open Saturday. “The Court finds that the absence of the Saturday vote will irreparably harm the Plaintiffs, their members, and constituents, and their preferred runoff candidate,” Fulton County Superior Court Judge Thomas Cox wrote in the original opinion to allow the voting.
In at least one county, Douglas, early in-person voting starts today. The early voting period will start in all counties on November 28, next Monday, and end on December 2. With the exception of Thanksgiving day and Friday after, counties can open for additional days. Thus far Chatham, DeKalb, and Fulton counties are going to be open for voting Saturday.
That’s a boost for Warnock, as is that polling mentioned above. Warnock leads Walker 51%-47% in the poll commissioned by AARP, conducted by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research. “Let’s state the obvious: No one knows who is going to come out to vote on Dec. 6,” said John Anzalone, President Joe Biden’s pollster told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “But we also learned something about the motivation levels that’s driving people to the polls.”
Warnock has a massive, 24-point lead with voters aged 18-49, and about 75% of them say they are “extremely motivated” to vote. On the other hand, Walker leads with the over-50s by 9 points and 90% of them are “extremely motivated.”
“If Warnock wins this race, it’s because younger voters actually turn out,” pollster Bob Ward said. “The age gaps here are staggering. Even though younger voters are a smaller share of the electorate, they’re keeping Warnock afloat.”
Not only will the more mature voters have to outvote the youngsters for Walker to prevail, but they’ll also have to turn out better than the independents, where Warnock is leading by 15 points, 54-39.“Independents are going to be about 30% of the electorate. That doesn’t mean all of them are up in the air,” pollster Bob Ward said. “But there’s a big group of voters who are middle-of-the-road, and many are going to show up in a lower-turnout election.”
Finally, there’s a sizable gender gap at play. Warnock has an 11-point advantage with women (55-44) while Walker has a 5-point advantage with men, 51-46. The runoff is playing agains the backdrop of a court battle in the state over abortion. Seven out of 10 voters in the state said abortion was either the single most important or an important factor in their vote in the general election. The gender gap, the independent gap, the abortion debate should all favor Warnock.
So should the star power coming in next week. Former President Barack Obama will be campaigning with Warnock in Atlanta on December 1 to get out the early vote.
However you can help Raphael Warnock to win the Georgia runoff, we need you today. Check out our Daily Kos GOTV Page, and get plugged into a volunteer activity now.
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