(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Ukraine Invasion Day 273: no 'baloney realism' for this war [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']
Date: 2022-11-22
There is more that we can learn from the Ukrainians about crucial aspects of modern war than they can learn from the US. The Institute for the Study of War says the Russians are planning a false flag attack on Russian soil to reinvigorate domestic support for the war.
The State of the War
Dnipro River: A volunteer Ukrainian special forces team has been conducting traveling across the strategic waterway, which has become the dividing line of the southern front. A volunteer Ukrainian special forces team has been conducting secret raids under the cover of darkness traveling across the strategic waterway, which has become the dividing line of the southern front.
Evacuation Plans: The Ukrainian government is preparing to help , where shattered infrastructure has raised fears of a humanitarian crisis when winter sets in. The Ukrainian government is preparing to help evacuate residents from the southern cities of Kherson and Mykolaiv , where shattered infrastructure has raised fears of a humanitarian crisis
A Race to Rebuild: Ukrainian attempts to stabilize some of the country’s battered electricity supply and make a dent in the seemingly endless task of demining swaths of the country offered a glimpse into the Herculean effort that lies ahead off the battlefield. Ukrainian attempts to stabilize some of the country’s battered electricity supply and make a dent in the seemingly endless task of demining swaths of the country offered a glimpse into
Visual Investigation: Videos circulating on social media have ignited a debate over whether Ukrainian forces committed war crimes or acted in self-defense as they tried to capture a group of Russian soldiers who were then killed. Here's what we know. Videos circulating on social media have ignited a debate over whether Ukrainian forces committed war crimes or acted in self-defense as they tried to capture a group of Russian soldiers who were then killed.
www.nytimes.com/…
x Increased Russian losses over the past day:
> 400 killed
tanks +3
armoured combat vehicles +5
multiple-launch rocket systems +2
military vehicles and fuel trucks +15
artillery systems +12
https://t.co/bD7sap1kS7 — Michael MacKay @
[email protected] (@mhmck) November 22, 2022
x Notes
Some tank variants (T-62, T-64) are not included since not officially in active service, according to MB
MB does not give an exact number of BMO-T & TOS-1A in active service.
Only losses that are visually confirmed
Restoring from storage affects the %
MB is not perfect — Robbert Tulp (@robbertt4321) November 22, 2022
x
https://t.co/SgqWerzF6P
Gudmundsson makes good graphs of the Russian losses. It also shows a downward trend in activity. I'm sure when a new front gets opened by Ukraine there will be an influx of tweets. — RDHT (@RDHT_91) November 22, 2022
Russian military movements suggest that Russian forces are likely reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 22 that Chechen and Wagner Group formations deployed to Debaltseve, Donetsk Oblast, and that Russian forces are regrouping individual units in the area of Molchansk, Zaporizhia Oblast (just northeast of Melitopol).[24] Social media sources posted images on November 21 showing Russian trucks and vehicles in Melitopol moving from the south to the north throughout November.[25] Geolocated images show Russian military vehicles moving through Bezimenne and Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast carrying a notable amount of military equipment.[26] ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces have begun reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast with personnel from Kherson Oblast and mobilized personnel.[27] Russian forces may be reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts to prepare for perceived threats of future Ukrainian operations or to support the effort to restart the Donetsk offensive.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Russia’s territory gains and losses during the Ukraine war, visualized - The Washington Post [Ah, there’s the trick. Ukraine gains Kherson and loses a bunch of other ground.]
https://t.co/lNbrWFCBTa — @bohemianglytz #independent (@bohemianglytz) November 22, 2022
However, Ukraine has intentionally been “very, very opaque” about its military losses, said retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, an expert on Russia and Ukraine.
When Vindman visited Ukraine in August, he learned that a significant number of Ukrainian troops had been killed and wounded, but Russia’s combat losses were much higher. Moreover, Vindman said his initial concerns about whether Ukraine could mount effective combat operations after losing so many field-grade officers were allayed by the Ukrainian military’s recent offensive, which has retaken Kharkiv, Kherson, and other parts of the country.
“The winter is going to be particularly hard on the Russians,” said Vindman, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute of The Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. “They’re underequipped. Whereas the Ukrainians are well equipped — you can see it in some of the footage that’s coming across.”
Because Ukraine has mobilized its entire population for war, Ukrainian troops have been better trained and equipped than the replacement forces that Russia has sent to the front lines, said Karolina Hird, a Russia analyst with the Institute for the Study of War think tank in Washington, D.C.
“This is how we’re seeing this war of attrition play out,” Hird told Task & Purpose. “Russian forces are pinned on small settlements — especially in the Donbas around Bakhmut — pinned on smaller, operationally insignificant settlements, taking high losses in operations to capture these settlements, and then plugging gaps in the forces here with hastily mobilized, poorly trained recruits, which of course is going to lead to higher losses.”
taskandpurpose.com/...
x Some real realism from @EliotACohen, who has made sense of the Russo-Ukrainian war from the beginning.
https://t.co/b64vxPzo0P — Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) November 22, 2022
realism, set of related theories of international relations that emphasizes the role of the state, national interest, and power in world politics.
Realism has dominated the academic study of international relations since the end of World War II. Realists claim to offer both the most accurate explanation of state behaviour and a set of policy prescriptions (notably the balance of power between states) for ameliorating the inherent destabilizing elements of international affairs. Realism (including neorealism) focuses on abiding patterns of interaction in an international system lacking a centralized political authority. That condition of anarchy means that the logic of international politics often differs from that of domestic politics, which is regulated by a sovereign power. Realists are generally pessimistic about the possibility of radical systemic reform. Realism is a broad tradition of thought that comprises a variety of different strands, the most distinctive of which are classical realism and neorealism.
Mark Milley is a man of strong views, candidly expressed in private and in public but not always carefully prepared in advance. It is a reasonable guess that he was not all that far out from where the administration is. But intentionally or not, he amplified a view that has risen from whisper to murmur: that it is time to think about how to bring the war in Ukraine to a close. On television and in foreign-policy journals, similar—indeed more pronounced—versions of these views may be heard.
There is a large dose of what one might call “baloney realism” in the judicious declarations by those—most of them tepid at best in their support of Ukraine’s cause to begin with—who say that all wars must end in negotiations. No, they do not have to. These self-styled foreign-policy adults evidently failed to notice that America’s protracted negotiations with the Taliban had nothing to do with the Biden administration’s ending of that war with a skedaddle rather than a deal.
Russia’s Afghan war ended the same way, although it executed its withdrawal more brutally and more skillfully than America’s. The 1991 Iraq War ended with a cease-fire negotiated (badly, on the American part) at gunpoint; the 2003 war in surrender. One need not reach for Winston Churchill’s refusal to negotiate with Adolf Hitler or Abraham Lincoln’s refusal to negotiate with Jefferson Davis to realize that not all wars end in a diplomatically arranged peace. Ukraine is fighting for its survival as a state and as a distinct people. In some sense, for that matter, this is a similarly existential conflict for the Putin regime, whose survival (though not Russia’s) requires victory.
[...]
In particular, the time has come to begin the comprehensive reequipping of Ukraine with a tank fleet superior to that of Russia. The easiest measure would be to tap the large numbers of mothballed German-made Leopard tanks held not only in that country but in others that have indicated their willingness to supply them to Ukraine. The United States should help reequip the Ukrainian air force—remarkably, still flying and flying effectively in the teeth of Russian air defenses—with F-16s from our own and others’ large holdings of inactive planes. And the U.S. must pressure laggard allies and clients—Israel, most notably, which desires our help against Iran but has disgracefully refused to do enough to help Ukraine defend its civilian population from waves of Iranian drones—to provide effective assistance, particularly with air defense.
There will be talks at some point. But they are less likely to resemble the Congress of Vienna than the palaver that American Marines had with Taliban forces surrounding the Kabul airport on their way out. In the meanwhile, time to pass the ammunition and to stop talking about talking.
www.theatlantic.com/...
x In terms of international relations theory, WW1 resulted in the rise of liberal idealism, whereas WW2 ushered in the dominance of realism. What impact will the Ukraine war have on IR theory? — Artyom Lukin (@ArtyomLukin) October 6, 2022
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions on November 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bakhmut; within 30km northeast of Bakhmut near Spirne, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, and Soledar; and within 4km south of Bakhmut near Opytne.[37] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within 8km northeast of Avdiivka near Kamianka and Vesele, and within 37km southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka.[38] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia posted a video on November 22 purporting to show the 100th Brigade of the DNR People’s Militia conducting an assault near Ukrainian positions within 16km southwest of Avdiivka, near Nevelske.[39] Several Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made advances in Marinka and that Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses and are slowly retreating from positions in the city.[40] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have also cut two of three supply roads into Marinka.[41] A Russian source claimed on November 21 that Russian aviation regularly strikes the positions of Ukrainian forces in Marinka.[42] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian advances in the area of Marinka are slow because the surrounding landscape is mainly comprised of open fields with little cover.[43]
Russian forces conducted defensive operations in western Donetsk on November 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending captured lines in western Donetsk Oblast.[44] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks on Russian positions in Pavlivka (53km southwest of Donetsk City) on November 20 and 21.[45] A Georgia-based open-source intelligence group suggested that Russian forces may be waiting for drier weather to restart offensive operations in the directions of Hulyaipole, Vuhledar, and Marinka.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued routine indirect fire along the line of contact in eastern Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.[47]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 22. Ukrainian officials reported that bad weather continues to slow down Russian operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line.[28] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian artillery units repelled Ukrainian forces attempting to advance in the direction of Novoselivske (23km northwest of Svatove).[29] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Administration stated that Russian forces conducted defensive operations and continued artillery fire in the areas of Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Ploshchanka, and Makiivka, all west of the N26 and R66 highways.[30] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove), while the Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces stopped a Ukrainian attempt to seize the settlement.[31] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Deputy Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev shared video footage purporting to show the aftermath of a Ukrainian attempted offensive near Orlianka (22km east of Kupyansk).[32] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian assault on Kuzemivka (13km northwest of Svatove), and Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Holykove (17km north of Kreminna) and Chervonopopivka (6km northwest of Kreminna).[33] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued routine indirect fire along the line of contact in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblasts.[34]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Gazprom says it may cut gas transit flows via Ukraine, its only remaining route for exports to western European markets, from next week
https://t.co/lQ5sQrm0TF via @markets — bob swede (@bobswede) November 22, 2022
x This reflects Russia's rising discontent with Kazakhstan's independent policy towards Ukraine, which was reflected in the luke-warm to critical responses to Tokayev's re-election on Russian Telegram channels and media outlets
https://t.co/TIwbL1fQhN — Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) November 22, 2022
x This week marks nine months since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Our Special Report from earlier this year looks at the implications of non-state actors on the battlefield, as well as the use of Russian disinformation in the conflict.
Read ➡️
https://t.co/sp9yOTZ1SI — The Soufan Center (@TheSoufanCenter) November 22, 2022
The Associated Press has fired a reporter and is reviewing its standards on use of anonymous sourcing following an “egregious” error in a story about a fatal missile strike that killed two people in Poland.
The national security reporter, James LaPorta, was dismissed after being deemed primarily responsible for a November 15 news bulletin that erroneously said Russian missiles had carried out the strike. AP sources said.
In fact, it is widely believed that Russian-made antiaircraft missiles fired by Ukraine were responsible for the deadly encounter in the NATO country.
LaPorta, who had worked at AP since 2020, said on Tuesday: “I would love to comment on the record, but I have been ordered by the AP to not comment.”
AP is believed to be the first news organisation outside of Polish media to report on the strike itself last week. The error ascribing blame to Russia was particularly damaging because of the danger involved given NATO's commitment to respond to an attack on a member country.
“We review any egregious mistakes that are made,” Julie Pace, senior vice president and executive editor of the AP, said of last week's error. “We take our standards very seriously. If we don't live up to our standards, we don't have any choice but to take action. Trust in the AP and trust in our report is paramount.”
The initial report was attributed to a “senior U.S. intelligence official,” with no explanation of why the person was granted anonymity. A reason for anonymity is required by AP policy. Later, the story was updated to add that the official was not named because of the sensitive nature of the situation.
The AP tries to avoid confidential sources, according to its statement of principles, and it lays out strict guidelines for their use. For example, a reporter must get approval from a news manager who is told the source's identity in order to use it in a story — a process known as “vetting sources.”
In this case, LaPorta said in an internal Slack message that his source had been vetted by Ron Nixon, an AP vice president and head of investigations, enterprise, partnerships and grants. But Nixon has said he had no knowledge that the source was being used for this particular story and development, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
AP's policies also call for a second source to corroborate information received through confidential sources, although exceptions are granted on a case-by-case basis.
www.independent.ie/…
x Missiles for Poland May Disrupt NATO’s Stance on Ukraine War
https://t.co/vXT9NJz52W — Marcia Media Network (@media_marcia) November 23, 2022
WARSAW — When a missile slammed into a Polish village just a few miles from Ukraine last week and killed two local residents, fears surged that Russia had attacked a NATO country and threatened a global conflagration — until it turned out that it was probably a wayward Ukrainian air defense missile that had fallen into Poland by accident. Just how risky the situation remains, however, was put into focus this week when Poland announced that it had accepted a German offer of Patriot air defense systems and would deploy them “near the border” with Ukraine. Poland, like the United States, has provided steadfast support to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February, supplying weapons and unwavering diplomatic backing, but it has no desire to get into a war with Moscow. Still, even though the new missiles from Germany will not be fully operational for years, by which time the war in Ukraine may well be over, Poland’s plans to deploy them close to the conflict zone signals growing worries that its own security may be at risk, and that the war next door could spread, by accident or by design.
Putting American-made Patriot interceptor missiles, some of which should be working at least partially by next August, close to Ukraine raises a host of difficult questions rooted in NATO’s eagerness to help Ukraine while staying outside the conflict zone. “What happens if our radar shows rockets are coming and they need to be intercepted inside Ukraine?” asked Jacek Bartosiak, the head of Strategy and Future, a Warsaw research group focused on security issues. That scenario, he said, is unlikely to drag NATO into a direct clash with Russia, but would push it into an uncharted “gray zone.” www.nytimes.com/…
x 21-year-old American mercenary killed in Kherson region.
Trent Davis served in the "International Legion" of the Ukrainian Theordefense. The mercenary arrived in Ukraine in October.
Davis went to the front line in the Kherson region on Nov 8th. He died the same day. pic.twitter.com/VO9kZeoMgv — Matthew McCracken 🇨🇮 🇺🇸 🇱🇷 (@MatthewMcCrac18) November 22, 2022
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/22/2137853/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-273-no-baloney-realism-for-this-war
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
