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How the Democrats could pick the next House Speaker [1]

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Date: 2022-11-22

The next Speaker of the US House of Representatives will be a Republican. The question is, which one? So far, the solons of political prognostication have awarded the title to the long-time aspirant and world-class groveler Kevin McCarthy. This ingratiating toad has kowtowed at the Palm Beach temple and French-kissed ass and ring to endear himself to the GOP’s kingmaker. But will it be enough?

The Republicans will hold a paper-thin majority in the House. And the House GOP’s rabid right, sensing the power in being the final votes, is threatening to scuttle the whole endeavor if the GOP does not turn to a more reactionary conservative as their standard-bearer.

This motley faction, led by Matt Gaetz, is a subset of the 31 representatives who voted against McCarthy in the Republican Party leadership election — a precursor to the January 3 House-wide speaker vote. Gaetz made his point clear in a chat with Steve Bannon,

"Five members, which include myself, Andy Biggs, Bob Good, Matt Rosendale, and now most recently Ralph Norman, have all come out and said that our no vote on McCarthy is firm. It was not just a no-vote within the Republican conference. It is a no-vote we intend to carry to the floor. Republicans are expected to hold a four-seat majority. So five of us saying publicly we have no intention of voting for McCarthy; we are firm in our opposition to him, well, that ought to trigger a realization among Republicans that we need a consensus candidate."

Gaetz pays homage to George Orwell with his call for a “consensus candidate.” Consensus is a vague word. It can mean unanimity or general agreement. However, it never means “my guy, no matter what anyone else thinks” — as Gaetz uses it here.

More importantly, however, is Gaetz’s threat that he is not just a conference warrior. He intends to keep the fight up in the January 3 House-wide vote for Speaker. That intention is flexible as Gaetz has the toughness of rotting mangos. But let's say he defies his history and sticks to his word, the Democrats will get to weigh in.

Let us assume that the final House composition will be the GOP over the Democrats by 222 — 213. McCarthy has no chance of picking up a single Democratic vote (unless there is a new Tulsi Gabbard in the House). However, no rule prohibits a Democrat from voting for a Republican candidate. So they potentially have as much say in the race as Gaetz’s merry band of dead-enders.

The House still has a relatively moderate caucus, the Republican Governance Group. This group rose in reaction to a previous hijacking of the GOP by extremist nutters — the 1994 ascension of the Newt Gingrich nihilists. And their votes in the race count just as much as those of anyone else.

Gaetz may think he has McCarthy over a barrel as Kevin needs 218 ayes to reach the promised land. But he does not represent the only group who could monkey-wrench the machinery. Traditionally, Representatives vote for candidates picked by the party conferences in the first round. However, if no candidate receives a majority of the votes, the subsequent rounds can be unpredictable.

In 1821, Rep. Philip Barbour was elected Speaker on the 12th ballot. Even though he had not been part of the slate of candidates on the first ballot.

There is a scenario where the Democrats make a common cause with the Governance Group. They commit to supporting a Republican other than McCarthy for the Speakership. With this understanding, the c.44 members of the group lobby the rest of the GOP caucus to find this “consensus” candidate.

If every Democrat were to back a more centrist Republican, only five Republicans would need to vote with them for that candidate to win.

This is all, of course, idle speculation. It is hard to imagine who could get all 212 Democrats to sign off on this wacky idea — especially as their current leader, Nancy Pelosi, is a self-created lame duck. Although, what a great coda it would be to her remarkable career.

The biggest hurdle is that you would have to find a Republican candidate. I do not know the GOP House membership well enough to hazard a guess which Republican would have the gravity to anchor the strategy. And they would have to find a candidate capable of standing the hate from the base and its attendant flame-fanners — like Gaetz.

Is this scenario likely? Probably not. It would require an audacity that politicians comfortable in their lane are unlikely to show. In all likelihood, Kevin will realize his life's ambition, even if he has to beg like a bitch. But if Gaetz stays true to his word (and I will grant you that is a long shot for a conservative) it could make for strange bedfellows.

Regardless, whoever is the next Speaker will find themselves in hell, not heaven.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/22/2137827/-How-the-Democrats-could-pick-the-next-House-Speaker

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