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Dump President Biden in 2024. [1]

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Date: 2022-11-21

Some debates need to happen.

There are some folks who sincerely believe that Biden has vigorously and successfully pursued an ambitious progressive agenda. Cool. I have a hard time sharing that perspective, but cool. I think there is some pretty noteworthy policy distance between Biden and the Democratic base, but let’s not even talk about policy — let’s just talk raw political calculus. The midterms are (mostly) over, and it’s as long as it’s going to be before the 2024 elections, so the time is now. We need to talk about Joe.

Let me ask you two questions.

(1) Is Biden more likely to win in 2024 than another Democratic candidate might be?

Biden’s approval ratings are abysmal. Just awful. You can blame that on a failure of policy agenda, failure of process execution, or just failure to adequately sell his accomplishments as you perceive them — but at the end of the day, what matters is the numbers. Right now we’re talking Trump numbers. Y’know, one-term President Trump.



What’s more, not only is Biden unpopular, the support he does have is soft. His “strongly approves” run ~10 points behind what Trump’s were. I’m not sad that Dems aren’t rabid personality cultists, but when campaign season starts I don’t know where Biden expects to find a base of committed supporters to bring energy to what will surely be a difficult reelection campaign.

And that energy will be crucial.

When America goes to the polls, Democrats will vote for the Democrat and Republicans will vote for the Republican, same as it ever was. The people who are most positive on Biden would still absolutely check the box for a replacement candidate; do you know a lot of Dems who are excited to reelect Joe Biden but wouldn’t turn out for a Mark Kelly or a Gretchen Whitmer or any other well-liked, uncontroversial alternative? I don’t. And that’s why those aren’t the votes that we need to worry about — the outcome will be decided by turnout among low-propensity voters.

So, what about those voters? Well, let’s take a look at how much the surprisingly-good midterms owe to unprecedented youth turnout. Now look at any poll that breaks down Biden’s approval rating by age cohort. Do you really think Joe is a *better* choice for mobilizing that critical mass? And it’s not just the Zoomers whose essential votes will be hard for Biden to bank. The movement that elected him was anti-Trumpism, rather than any Joe-mentum he himself brought to the table. What if Trump isn’t there to galvanize Democratic turnout in 2024? Then again, if it *is* Trump in 2024, why wouldn’t the anti-Trump vote work just as well for an alternative Dem candidate?

(2) If another candidate would be (at least) as likely to win, wouldn’t we prefer that?

This one’s pretty simple. Let’s ignore the fact that Biden’s policy agenda is less popular than that of a statistically median Democratic replacement — even if Biden runs and wins, he’ll be out of office in four years. He’ll be out of political relevance not long thereafter. If this be ageism, let’s make the most of it: I am not afraid to acknowledge that 80 is a larger number than other numbers that are less large.

That matters, right?

Wouldn’t you rather the Democratic Party be led by somebody who could go on to hold the office for eight years, and then continue to provide leadership for years to come?

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/21/2137648/-Dump-President-Biden-in-2024

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