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I think this guy explains the Ukrainian thrust coming to the left really, really well. [1]

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Date: 2022-11-19

I hope this works — this is why Ukraine strikes to their left — the guy is very succinct. So on point.

This is what General Hodges is talking about you know— how this plays. He puts it really well.

He thinks at the point when Crimea falls the war gets harder for Ukraine. I think when it falls the Russian army collapses. He makes good points — but the RU army is just teetering here. Can’t you sense it? An intangible of war. Just what happens when you really lose the will to fight. What happens when you have no competent NCOs —no Jr officers with any ability to lead a fight at all.

If we are running low on some weapons you know — Russia must be about out of them — not that they work very well to begin with. And we sure did not give Ukraine our best stuff.

Anyway — this is what Hodges is talking about — the kill box to the east here of Kherson. This move coming now is so crystal clear. Although — as he intimates — Ukraine has a very opportunistic approach, so where the kill blow comes in this campaign will be dictated by opportunity — except it will be in that box. And it is sure coming. Ukraine had to de-rail the retreating forces from Kherson from re-deploying — I think they did but of course there is a total news black out there. We are about to find out soon. But they knew what to do and they are very good at war.

I think this guy is really good at reading the game. My entire cohort from grad school thinks the same. You know Hertling was right — if you really get the thrust of On War — you knew this is where it goes. At the very least in this campaign. This IS what general Hodges is talking about.

I think this campaign is the war. If or not the killing continues — it is the war.

Ukraine has had them for some time, played them, positioned them — how in god’s name the Russians did not understand this game is so beyond me. They are so set up to fail. This is not even that complicated here.

I honestly think they are trying to play out a battle plan that failed some time ago — that they just keep on going because cannot adjust a plan, that they just keep on doing the same stupid things they were told to do many months ago. Even after it failed — like some kind of inertia. A gross inability to adapt to a goddamn thing.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/19/2137316/-I-think-this-guy-explains-the-Ukrainian-thrust-coming-to-the-left-really-really-well

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