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AZ AG - the race nobody is talking about: Updated [1]
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Date: 2022-11-16
UPDATE: Can’t tell if the SOS site had a glitch or whether the new posted numbers are correct, but Mayes’ (D) lead is reported as back to to 711 votes, EXACTLY where it was at the beginning of the day, which leaves me wondering whether it is correct or a glitch.
Maybe AZ is different that others states, but in today’s heated political environment you’d think who wins Arizona’s AG seat would be a hot topic here. But I haven’t seen any info, much less commentary, on it. So — as of 3:30 PM HST (which I think is 8:30 EST). This is where it is at.
At the beginning of the day, Kris Mayes, the Democratic candidate, had about a 711 vote lead over “Abe” Abraham Hamadeh, the Republican candidate (apparently from immigrant parents but has opted to “identify with the aggressor” and is hand in glove with Kari Lake (R-xenophobic, conspiracy crazy), with about 35 or 40 thousand votes yet to be counted, most in Maricopa and Pima, but a decent amount in red counties as well. This lead of 711 votes had dwindled from something over 2,000 votes several days ago, so the trends weren’t good.
With that in mind, I did some calculations based on outstanding votes by county and the vote percentages to date for each county. That calculation suggested that in fact Kris Mayes should start expanding her lead again, by perhaps an additional 2,000 votes or so.
And in fact, the most recent review shows her lead now up to 1,547, more than twice as much as the beginning of the day. There are still slightly more than 21,000 potential votes outstanding, Hamedeh would need about 54% of all remaining votes - probably higher because most of the 21,000 outstanding haven’t been processed or are still in provisional review, so highly unlikely all of those will actually turn into countable ballots.
To my knowledge, the race hasn’t been called, but if trends continue tomorrow might be the day.
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